ACES
- Madison Bumgarner (Giants) @MIA, @LAD
- Carlos Carrasco (Indians) @CWS, vs. MIN
- Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) vs. PIT, vs. NYM
- Mike Foltynewicz (Braves) vs. NYM, vs. SD
- Lance McCullers (Astros) @OAK, @KC
- Aaron Nola (Phillies) vs. COL, @MIL
GREEN LIGHT
Clay Buchholz (Diamondbacks) vs. PIT, vs. NYM
Who would have thought Buchholz would be in consideration at this time of the season? He has pitched in four games and done well with a 1.88 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. He has a 10.2 percent swinging strike rate and is allowing a 50-percent fly ball rate. He has a .215 BABIP and a 94.9 percent strand rate, so he’s been lucky. With two starts at home in good matchups, he’s in play, especially in deeper formats.
Dylan Bundy (Orioles) vs. BOS, vs. MIA
It has been a wild ride for Bundy. He is 4-7 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. After not recording an out against the Royals and allowing seven earned runs on May 8, Bundy had a 5.31 ERA. Since then, he has allowed three earned runs or less in four of the five starts. The one he didn’t was against Boston, in which he allowed four runs in six innings with three home runs. Bundy has a 1.90 HR/9 and two games in Camden Yards increases the chance for a home run. Bundy has a 4.78 ERA at home and 3.32 on the road.
Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) vs. SD, vs. CHC
Flaherty has pitched well and gets a favorable matchup against the Padres and a tougher one against the Cubs. He has a 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.2 percent walk rate.
Sam Gaviglio (Blue Jays) @TB, vs. WAS
Gaviglio has pitched well in his four starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Yankees. In 28.2 innings, he has a 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 22.8 percent strikeout rate and 6.1 percent walk rate. He has a 54.4 percent groundball rate and 28.8 percent hard-hit rate.
Jon Gray (Rockies) @PHI, @TEX
Trust me, as a Gray owner in multiple leagues I understand how frustrating it has been to have him this year. Gray has a 6.45 ERA at home and 4.73 on the road, and it’s not a home run issue considering a 0.90 HR/9. Gray has had awful luck with a .379 BABIP, well above his career mark of .338. He has a 64.2 percent strand rate, 25.7 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate. He should be better and with two starts on the road, if you can’t roll with him this week, then you should own him.
Junior Guerra (Brewers) vs. CHC, vs. PHI
In 11 starts, Guerra has a 2.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 22.7 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 percent walk rate. I don’t expect those numbers to continue at that pace, but he can be useful in a two-start week.
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Andrew Heaney (Angels) @SEA, @OAK
Heaney has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of ten starts. He’s coming off a one-hitter with one and four strikeouts in a win over the Royals. He has a 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 23.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.7 percent walk rate.
Daniel Mengden (A’s) vs. HOU, vs. LAA
Mengden has been one of the best waiver wire adds of the season but isn’t as good as he’s shown. He can be a useful fantasy pitcher, but he has two difficult matchups. In 41.2 innings spanning six starts, he allowed seven earned runs. In his last start in Texas, he allowed six runs in four innings and allowed four home runs. He is 6-5 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 16.1 percent strikeout rate and 3.5 percent walk rate.
Jake Odorizzi (Twins) @DET, @CLE
Odorizzi still allows too many home runs. The move to Minnesota hasn’t helped. He has a 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23.4 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate. He’s on the lower tier of the pitcher to use this week.
Jose Quintana (Cubs) @MIL, @STL
Quintana has been inconsistent but has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. He had ten strikeouts in 5.2 innings against the Phillies in his last start. He is 6-4 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 24.2 percent strikeout rate and 11.2 percent walk rate.
Tanner Roark (Nationals) @NYY, @TOR
Roark has been solid with a 3.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 20.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.9 percent walk rate. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact. The Yankees start is daunting, but Roark is in play.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox) @BAL, @SEA
Rodriguez has been excellent. He is 7-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 27.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate. He has a 27.5 percent hard-hit rate and 11.7 percent swinging strike rate.
CC Sabathia (Yankees) vs. WAS, vs. TB
Sabathia is matchup dependent. The start against the Nationals isn’t easy, and Sabathia has pitched more than five innings once in the last five starts. Sabathia has a 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Steven Wright (Red Sox) @BAL, @SEA
Wright made his first start of the season last week and threw seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits, three walks and struck out six.
RED LIGHT
Mike Leake (Mariners) vs. LAA, vs. BOS
Leake has pitched well in four straight starts, allowing six earned runs in 29.2 innings against the Rays twice, A’s and Twins. He has a 4.46 ERA, and while he has a 5.1 percent walk rate, he only has a 14.9 percent strikeout rate. Against the Angels and Red Sox, he’s too risky.
Wade LeBlanc (Mariners) vs. LAA, vs. BOS
LeBlanc has a 2.29 ERA as a starter in 29.1 innings with an 18.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate and a 90.4 percent strand rate has helped. He has had a favorable schedule and his toughest opponent was the Astros in his last start and he allowed seven hits, three walks, three runs and lasted only four innings.
Jordan Lyles (Padres) @STL, @ATL
Lyles looked like he was a different pitcher with increased velocity but has become susceptible to home runs. In 34 innings as a starter, he has a 5.29 ERA, 21.8 percent strikeout rate, 7.5 percent walk rate, 1.41 WHIP and allowed seven home runs. He has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings. He allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings in his last start against the Braves in San Diego.
Chris Stratton (Giants) @MIA, @LAD
Stratton has been hit or miss and been more miss lately. He has pitched more than five innings once in his last six starts. He has a 4.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 41.2 percent hard-hit rate.
Trevor Williams (Pirates) @ARI, vs. CIN
After a great start to the season, Williams has been shaky. In his last four starts over 18 innings, he has allowed 24 hits, 17 earned runs, walked four and struck out 14. When you don’t miss many bats, this can happen.
Other Red Light Pitchers
- Chase Anderson (Brewers) vs. CHC, vs. PHI
- Wei-Yin Chen (Marlins) vs. SF, @BAL
- Lucas Giolito (White Sox) vs. CLE, vs. DET
- Blaine Hardy (Tigers) vs. MIN, @CWS
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins) vs. SF, @BAL
- James Shields (White Sox) vs. CLE, vs. DET
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