Early Fantasy Football ADP Values

Antonio Gibson

Dynasty football drafts are well underway. That means that FullTime Fantasy‘s redraft season is right around the corner. Now is a great time to start studying some of the undervalued players to target. These early fantasy football ADP values have the potential to shoot up draft boards as the summer progresses.

Using the Fantasy Pros Expert’s Consensus, I found several key contributors that I am much higher on. As more rankings are updated, undoubtedly the ECR will improve. But, until then, the early bird gets the worm.

Here are some of the early fantasy football ADP values that I like in early June. Also, be sure to check out our early FFWC fantasy football fades.

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Quarterbacks

 

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) QB4 (+3)

Herbert’s TD production dropped off significantly last season. However, I think it is about to rebound in a hurry. In addition to re-signing RB Austin Ekeler, the Chargers added dynamic TCU rookie WR Quentin Johnston with the No. 21 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

But the biggest reason I love Herbet doesn’t even come on the field. It’s the addition of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. In four seasons running the Dallas offense, Moore’s Cowboys ranked 2nd in both yards and points per game. Herbert is poised to approach 5,000 passing yards and 30-plus touchdown strikes.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) QB11 (+6)

2022 was an unmitigated disaster for the Broncos, resulting in Nathaniel Hackett’s firing after just 15 games. One of the few positives to take away from the abysmal showing was Wilson played better after Hackett got hacked. Wilson was QB5 in Week 17 and QB2 in the season finale.

The Broncos receiving corps should also be healthier. Also, the group should be even better with Oklahoma rookie Marvin Mims. Not to mention, Sean Payton will be the head coach. That will be an immediate upgrade for the entire offense.

Running Backs

 

Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) RB22 (+3)

During their run to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs leaned heavily on their rookie rusher. And when you look at some of the metrics, there seems to be a good chance that Isiah Pacheco is being undervalued.

Pacheco ranked 10th with 4.8 true yards per carry, 16th in yards per touch, and was the No. 2 pass-blocking back in the league. Pacheco racked up double-digit PPR points in each of Kansas City’s final 11 games. Also, he was clearly better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I predict that Pacheco will meet or exceed the 15 touches per game figure he averaged down the stretch. That extrapolates out to 253 touches for a player who was awfully efficient in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses.

Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders) RB29 (+8)

The hiring of Eric Bieniemy should be huge for Gibson, who ranked 11th in target share at running back last season. Bieniemy was able to turn Jerick McKinnon into an excellent fantasy option and should have no problems engineering a role and scheme for Gibson, whose efficiency metrics outshine McKinnon’s.

In addition to ranking top-12 in targets (58), receptions (46), and yards per route run (1.66), Gibson is a better runner. However, there are serious questions at QB in Washington. My early projections have Gibson commanding even more safety-valve targets in 2023. That makes him a solid PPR value in the ninth or tenth rounds of fantasy drafts.

Deuce Vaughn (Dallas Cowboys) RB63 (+35)

Tony Pollard didn’t need a ton of touches to post top-10 fantasy numbers. And now that Ezekiel Elliott is gone, I’m not so sure that the Cowboys will clamor to change what was already working. That makes the ancillary backs in Big D quite intriguing.

Deuce Vaughn turned heads at OTAs and has been referred to as a versatile and valuable weapon by the Cowboys’ brass. Incumbent RB2 Malik Davis (RB 80 +26) also looks like a very nice value. Keep an eye on how things shape up this summer. One of these two unheralded backs could be significantly underpriced by August.

Wide Receivers

 

Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) WR22 (+9)

Kirk’s first season in Jacksonville resulted in career-best numbers across the board and a WR12 finish. Jacksonville appears poised to be heavy favorites in the AFC South, yet Kirk’s ADP has dipped. The only reason for that is people overreacting to Calvin Ridley’s reinstatement.

Ridley, who has only played five games in the last two seasons, is a fine wideout. However, I don’t think his arrival will impact Kirk’s role as much as others do. 75.2% of Kirk’s routes last season came from the slot. In his last two years with the Falcons, Ridley lined up outside on 89% of his routes. I expect that usage to continue in Jacksonville. Kirk looks like a good bet to lead the Jags in targets and contend for top-20 fantasy production again.

Kadarius Toney (Kansas City Chiefs) WR34 (+5)

The Chiefs are among the favorites to sign DeAndre Hopkins. But, until they do, Kadarius Toney is the de facto WR1 in Kansas City. Toney has elite athletic credentials and playmaking ability. If healthy in an Andy Reid offense, Toney has massive upside.

It’s important to take some shots in fantasy football. Toney is a player you will read about all summer being a sleeper and league winner. That’s why his ADP outside of WR2 range looks enticing this early.

Juju Smith-Schuster (New England Patriots) WR37 (+8) 

2022 was a predictable disaster for New England’s offense. Still, Jakobi Meyers was able to post WR29 numbers in PPR points per game. Meyers now resides in Vegas and Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to take over that role.

Even if Smith-Schuster has fallen off after a fast start to his career, I’ll argue that he is a better NFL wideout than Meyers. The Patriots have long favored funneling targets to their slot receivers. Also, the offense should be vastly improved with Bill O’Brien representing a credible offensive gameplan.

Robert Woods (Houston Texans) WR56 (+27)

Robert Woods is penciled in as Houston’s WR1 in 2023. That didn’t amount to much in a disastrous 2022 campaign for the Texans. However, the offense should be much more competent with C.J. Stroud under center.

Woods has inside/outside flexibility and reliable hands. Houston signed Woods to a 2-year/$15.3 million contract to replace Brandin Cooks. Look for the veteran to spend more snaps in the slot and act as a reliable veteran safety valve for Houston’s rookie quarterback. With an ADP of WR83, Woods is a team WR1 that is essentially free. There’s simply no downside to nabbing him with your final pick.

Tight Ends

 

Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions) TE20 (+8)

Although the Lions did rotate multiple players week-to-week, Detroit heavily featured their tight ends in the red zone. The team used the No. 34 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on LaPorta and if OTAs are any indicator, have every intention of making the rookie a big part of their offense.

Plus, with Jameson Williams suspended, LaPorta could be a vital part of Detroit’s offense right away. Betting on rookie tight ends has been a losing fantasy proposition. However, LaPorta was seen lining up on the perimeter and turning heads with his overall skills.

Hayden Hurst (Carolina Panthers) TE22 (+5)

The Panthers game Hurst $21.75 million this offseason. That’s a solid contract for a starting tight end. It tells us that they view Hurst as a viable option in a new-look offense spearheaded by No. 1 pick Bryce Young

Hurst averaged 8.1 PPR points per game in 2022. That ranked 19th at the position. There’s not a ton of upside here. However, Hurst should have a handful of big weeks. That makes him a nice best-ball option and solid value for fantasy drafters looking for depth late in drafts.


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About Jody Smith 487 Articles
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction. Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.