2024 San Francisco Giants Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]
2024 San Francisco Giants Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn's process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 San Francisco Giants preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport's best.
This 2024 San Francisco Giants Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn's expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
After a surprising season in 2021 (107-55), the Giants have been four games under .500 over the past two years with no tickets to the postseason. They scored 130 fewer runs (674) than in 2021 (804). San Francisco has nine playoff appearances since 1989, with their highlight run coming between 2010 and 2014 (three World Series titles). The Giants have five other championships (1905, 1921, 1922, 1933, and 1954).
San Fran ranked 11th in ERA (4.02) while dropping three notches with their relievers (3.92 ERA – 14th). Their bullpen led the majors in wins (50) while finishing four in saves (50). They pitched 705.1 innings (most in baseball), leading to 703 strikeouts (1st) and 33 losses. The Giants slipped to 24th in runs (674), 19th in home runs (174), and 23rd in RBIs (651). They had the league's lowest stolen base total (57) on 73 attempts (78.1%).
In the offseason, San Francisco signed DH Jorge Soler, 3B Matt Chapman, C Tom Murphy, and P Jordan Hicks while landing Korean import OF Jung Hoo Lee. They moved on from SP Sean Manaea, OF Joc Pederson, SS Brandon Crawford, SP Alex Wood, SS Paul DeJong, OF AJ Pollock, and RP John Brebbia. SP Robbie Ray came via a trade with Seattle for OF Mitch Haniger and SP Anthony DeSclafani.
The Giants’ offense has an exciting blend of veteran bats paired with three players (Jung Hoo Lee, Patrick Bailey, and SS Marco Luciano) with upside. There will be many strikeouts, but more balls will land in the seats.
The ninth inning should be in good shape with the development of RP Camilo Doval. The structure and depth of San Francisco’s starting rotation behind SP Logan Webb and SP Kyle Harrison aren't ideal. SP Jordan Hicks has an injury history, and he hasn’t made a start since 2022. The fourth and fifth starting options will be an open competition in spring training.
Starting Lineup
OF Jung Hoo Lee
Over seven seasons in Korea, Lee hit .340 with 581 runs, 65 home runs, 515 RBIs, and 69 stolen bases over 3,746 at-bats. His best two years came in 2020 (.333/85/15/101/12 over 544 at-bats) and 2022 (.349/85/23/113/5 over 553 at-bats). He had more walks (383 – 9.7%) than strikeouts (304 – 7.7%). His average hit rate (1.444) in his career suggests 15 home runs would be a lot to ask in his rookie year.
Last year, Lee missed time due to a broken left ankle that required surgery. His exit velocity is projected to be lower than 89.0%. His groundball rate was high over the past two seasons (58% and 59%), hurting his power early in his major league career, especially when adding his new home ballpark.
Fantasy Outlook: Lee has an ADP of 248 in the high-stakes market, as fantasy drafters don’t have a good feel for how to rate him in his rookie season. I almost view him as a player making the jump from AA to the majors. The Giants saw enough in his game to pony up $113 million for six seasons in December. I won’t be drafting Lee in any league this year. I view him as a player with a 10/15 skill set out of the gate. A possible .290 hitter with about 70 runs and 65 RBIs unless he gets well over 600 at-bats.
2B Thairo Estrada
Estrada had a slow path to the path majors after signing with the Yankees in the summer of 2016 at age 16. He hit .285 over nine seasons in the minors with 294 runs, 35 home runs, 224 RBIs, and 58 stolen bases over 1,994 at-bats. His bat progressed in 2021 at AAA (.333/37/9/40/6 over 210 at-bats), giving Estrada a path to the majors.
He made the Giants’ opening-day roster in 2022, but Estrada struggled in April (.234/14/2/14/3 over 77 at-bats) while showing an uptick in average in May (.322/13/0/6/3 over 87 at-bats). Over his final 324 at-bats, he hit .250 with 44 runs, 12 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 15 steals. His strikeout rate (16.5) beat the league average with a below-par walk rate (6.1).
Last year, Estrada missed 10 days in late May (left wrist) and a month in midsummer (broken right hand). After an excellent start to the year in April (.346/19/4/10/8 over 104 at-bats), he hit .251 with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over his final 391 at-bats. His bat has minimal value against left-handed pitching (.257 with one home run and 10 RBIs over 140 at-bats).
His average hit rate (1.537) remains below his resume in 2019 and 2021. Estrada posted his highest contact batting average (.357) in his time in the majors. His flyball rate (34.9) was a career-high, with a step back in his HR/FB rate (10.9). He ranked 371st in exit velocity (85.9) and 306th in hard-hit rate (33.7). His strikeout rate (22.6) and walk rate (4.2) were below his previous results with the Giants.
Fantasy Outlook: Estrada has a winning floor in home runs and stolen bases, especially if he can stay on the field for 550 at-bats. His ADP (137) ranks him 12th at second base. His speed clears a path to hit higher in San Francisco’s lineup, but his approach isn’t ideal. Don’t consider him a stud, but Estrada offers a steady five-category skill set...
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