2024 Houston Astros Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]
2024 Houston Astros Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn's process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport's best.
This 2024 Houston Astros Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn's expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Astros extended their postseason streak to seven seasons, leading to four World Series appearances, two championships (2017 and 2022), and six AL West titles. Over the past 27 years, Houston reached the playoffs 14 times. FullTime Fantasy's 2024 Houston Astros Preview forecasts if the Stros' dynasty will continue.
Their pitching staff ranked eighth in ERA (3.94), with a slightly higher outcome (6th) by their relievers (3.56 ERA with 29 wins, 22 losses, 42 saves, 608 strikeouts, and 545.1 innings). Houston finished fifth in runs (827), seventh in home runs (222), and fifth in RBIs (799). The Astros stole 107 bases on 139 attempts (77.0%).
Their splash in the free agency was the signing of CL Josh Hader. C Victor Caratini was the only addition to the major league roster. Houston didn’t re-sign RP Hector Neris, RP Phil Maton, RP Ryne Stanek, or C Martin Maldonado.
Their offensive has a balance of veteran bats, and some players are just reaching the prime of their careers. OF Yordan Alvarez and OF Kyle Tucker offer the highest ceilings.
Houston must squeeze one more season out of SP Justin Verlander and a rebound year from SP Cristian Javier to repeat in the AL West. The bullpen is in an excellent place with the right arms of Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly.
Starting Lineup
2B Jose Altuve
Altuve may not be the player he once was, but he did a lot right in 2022. His FPGscore (6.28) was the 15th best for hitters while spending 12 days on the injured list in April with a groin issue. Altuve saw his walk rate (10.9) reach a new top, with only a slight drop in his strikeout rate (14.4 – 12.1 in his career). The most surprising rebound was his stolen base total (18 – only 13 steals from 2019 to 2021 over 1,293 at-bats). Altuve had weakness in his RBI rate (13), but his low RBI total (57) was more reflective of his incredibly short RBI chances (229).
Last year, he started the season on the 60-game injured list with a broken left thumb. Altuve hit .265 over his first 121 at-bats with 25 runs, six home runs, and 18 RBIs. An oblique issue cost him another three weeks in July. His bat was sensational over his final 239 at-bats (.335/51/11/33/9).
Altuve offered an edge against left-handed pitching (.340 with 10 home runs and 21 RBIs over 141 at-bats) in 2022, but he was better last year vs. righties (.322 with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs). He finished with a further rise in his contact batting average (.388 – .359 in 2022 and .327 in 2021) with some fade in his average hit rate (1.679).
Despite another productive season, Altuve ranked 367th in exit velocity (86.0) and 345th in hard-hit rate (31.4). Both stats were well below his career averages (86.9 and 32.3). His jump in power came from a rise in his HR/FB rate (18.3 – 11.3 in his career). His flyball rate (32.7) was below his previous two seasons (38.7).
Fantasy Outlook: Altuve has been an excellent player over the past three seasons while adding speed back to his equation. He’s walking more, with some fade in his strikeout rate. His ADP (41) ranks him fourth at second base in late January. Altuve has the feel of a .300/100/25/80/15 player, but age (33) isn’t on his side. Houston will score many runs, so I can’t dismiss another winning ride.
3B Alex Bregman...
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