Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

Previewing this week's Thursday Night Football from a fantasy and sports betting perspective

September 27, 2023 Jody Smith DFS - NFL, Season Long – All Sports, Season Long – NFL, Season Long – NFL Home

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 There were some huge performances last week and Week 4 is getting off to a promising start as the Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. FullTime Fantasy's Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 breaks down this week's NFC North battle. The Lions had a quiet showing on Sunday but were able to move to 2-1 by topping Atlanta. Detroit is optimistic that both LT Taylor Decker and RB David Montgomery will return for this game. Both would be welcomed additions in fantasy football circles. Meanwhile, the Packers are also looking at substantial reinforcements. WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones are expected to play. Detroit enters this game as 1.5-point favorites and the over/under has risen to 46. Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Detroit Lions	8	7	11	5	12
Green Bay Packers	22	18	23	15	8

Similar to last season, Detroit boasts a potent and balanced offense. The Lions are capable of moving the ball on the ground or through the air quite well. They also protect the quarterback well and avoid turnovers. However, Detroit tends to be much more potent at home. Also, the Packers have dominated this series at Lambeau, winning 21 of the last 25. Green Bay's offense stands out in one key area. Scoring touchdowns. The Packers rank fifth in the NFL in third down conversion rate. Also, they're top-10 in offense and defense red-zone efficiency. The Packers opened as slight favorites. However, the line has shifted to Detroit now being favored. Detroit Offense Jared Goff posted a 109.3 QB Rating and tossed 23 of his 29 touchdowns at home last season. Goff played well on the road in Week 1 and... How will Thursday's Lions vs. Packers game go?

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About Jody Smith 607 Articles

With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction. Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.

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Geno Smith UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

I’m taking the under on Geno Smith’s passing touchdowns this week. Why? Because the numbers don’t lie, and they’re stacking up against the Seahawks quarterback.

First, let’s talk about Geno. Sure, he’s racking up the passing yards—he’s among the NFL’s best in that department. But when it comes to turning those yards into touchdowns, it’s been a struggle. In 12 games this season, Geno has thrown just 13 passing touchdowns, with only five of those coming on the road. He’s managed multiple touchdown games just twice this year, and last season wasn’t much different—20 touchdowns in 15 games. So, this isn’t a fluke; it’s a pattern.

Now, let’s flip the script and talk about Arizona’s defense, because wow, they’ve been bringing the heat. Over the past six games, the Cardinals have allowed only four total passing touchdowns. Even more impressive? At home, they’ve pitched a defensive shutout in three straight games—no passing touchdowns, no rushing touchdowns, nothing. In fact, across six home games this year, they’ve given up just three passing touchdowns total.

Put it all together, and the data points to one conclusion: this under is a smart play. Sure, betting unders can be nerve-wracking, but with Geno’s trends and Arizona’s defensive dominance, I feel good about this one.

Sam Darnold...

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