Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

December 28, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Amari Cooper (11/265/2) delivered a difference-maker in the fantasy postseason for the first time in his NFL career, ranking first in wide receiver scoring (51.50) in Week 16. The change to Mason Rudolph at […]

Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Amari Cooper (11/265/2) delivered a difference-maker in the fantasy postseason for the first time in his NFL career, ranking first in wide receiver scoring (51.50) in Week 16. The change to Mason Rudolph at quarterback gave George Pickens (4/195/2) the best outcome in his short NFL career. Puka Nacua (9/1801) was the third-ranked wideout for the week. Twelve wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 29.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five players by scoring average after 16 weeks:

Tyreek Hill (22.87)
CeeDee Lamb (21.90)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.83)
A.J. Brown (18.76)
Keenan Allen (18.69)

Also, before we get into the Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report and RB Report.

Top-Tier Options

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,200)

Over the past two weeks, with Nick Mullens starting at quarterback, Jefferson averaged 22.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring with one edge game (6/141/1). The Vikings looked his way 20 times while attempting 70 passes. He posted four stud games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2) to start the season (28.33 FPPG). In 2022, Jefferson posted a dominating game (9/184/2) at home vs. the Packers but an empty showing (1/15) on the road.

Green Bay drifted to 15th in wide receiver defense (218/2,522/13 on 322 targets). The only offense to solve their pass coverage vs. wideouts was the Chargers (32/415/2). Their defense did show regression in points allowed over the past two matchups (27 and 30 points), leading to 34 catches for 398 yards and three touchdowns on 49 targets (CIN and DET). CB Jaire Alexander has been suspended for this game, putting the Vikings’ wideouts in a better position for success.

Jefferson does get a nick in his profile in Week 17, with Jaren Hall starting for the Vikings. He’s been on the field for 22 plays in his rookie season, leading to eight completions on 10 passing attempts for 101 yards. Over his last two seasons at BYU, Hall gained 6,409 yards with 57 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over 22 games. He will move the chains with his legs (148/655/6).

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)

After missing Week 16, the Dolphins had Hill on the field for 85% of the snaps against Dallas. He caught…

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Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

December 22, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report All five of the top receivers in Week 15 ranked outside of the top 20 coming into the week. Jordan Addison (29.10) posted the high score in fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by […]

Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

All five of the top receivers in Week 15 ranked outside of the top 20 coming into the week. Jordan Addison (29.10) posted the high score in fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by Jaylen Waddle (28.20) and Terry McLaurin (26.10). No wideout scored more than 30.00 fantasy points for the second week all year. Twelve other wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 26.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five players by scoring average after 15 weeks:

Tyreek Hill (23.15)
CeeDee Lamb (21.66)
Keenan Allen (20.03)
A.J. Brown (19.10)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.13)

Also, before we get into the Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report and RB Report.

Elite Option

CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – (9,200/FD – $9,400)

Lamb has a touchdown in six consecutive games (seven total) while offering elite stats over his last eight starts (69/897/9 – 27.96 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). On the downside, he has been a weaker option in 2023 on the road (43/597/2 on 58 targets over seven games – 13.02 FPPG) than at home (28.51 FPPG). His best two games away from Dallas came in Week 6 (7/117) and Week 9 (11/191).

Miami played better defensively over their last five games (13, 13, 15, 28, and 0 points allowed), except for a late fourth quarterback collapse vs. the Titans (two touchdowns over the final three minutes). The Dolphins are about league average vs. wideouts (185/282/13 on 282 targets), with struggles in three games (DEN – 18/257/1, BUF – 13/209/4, LV – 18/209/1). CB Xavien Howard (40/425/2 on 63 targets per PRR) may miss this week’s game with a hip issue. Lamb will most likely see CB Kader Kohou (62/630/6 on 73 targets) in coverage for a good portion of his routes due to him working out of the slot.

The hot hand theory favors Lamb again in this game, but Dak Prescott hasn’t been the same player on the road. Better weather in Miami is a plus, and the Cowboys will need to throw the ball better this week if they expect to compete for a win. Unfortunately, Lamb will be a challenging fit for a DFS lineup in Week 16.

Second Tier Options

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)

Jefferson started with four productive games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2). He averaged 11.75 targets, leading to…

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Week 11 NFL Player Props

November 17, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 11 NFL Player Props For the first time this season, we didn’t have a profitable week. In Week 10, we finished 3-4 (-1.5 Units) and are now 31-24 (+8.8 Units) on the 2023 season. It’s time to get back […]

Week 11 NFL Player Props

For the first time this season, we didn’t have a profitable week. In Week 10, we finished 3-4 (-1.5 Units) and are now 31-24 (+8.8 Units) on the 2023 season. It’s time to get back in the winning column after a tough week with our Week 11 NFL Player Props.

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 11’s slate of NFL action. Unlike last week when several high-powered offenses were on bye weeks such as the reigning AFC and NFC Champions, Week 11’s bye belongs to four mediocre teams: the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and the abysmal New England Patriots.

Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 11 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.

Bryce Young OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-105)

The Panthers are now 10.5-point underdogs on the road against a filthy Dallas Cowboys defense. You might be wondering why I’d recommend this prop when Bryce Young has struggled so much and we’ve seen how dominant this Cowboys team can be. However, a blowout would result in Carolina playing catch-up and airing it out all night to try to even the score.

Dallas is 4-1 against the spread when laying at least six points this season and their average margin of victory in those four wins is 27.5 points (largely due to the New York Giants). Young is going to have to throw the ball if Carolina has any chance at keeping pace with Dallas’ high-octane offense.

It’s important to note that in every single game that Young started in which the Panthers lost by double digits, he attempted at least 38 passes. With the Panthers expected to fall behind big time in this game, the franchise will likely want to see what the No.1 pick in this year’s draft can do given this is already a lost season for the 1-8 Panthers. Even if they are down big, it’s hard to envision Young being benched. The team will want to further his development and not shake his confidence. Take the Over.

Will Levis…

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

September 27, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 There were some huge performances last week and Week 4 is getting off to a promising start as the Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

There were some huge performances last week and Week 4 is getting off to a promising start as the Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 breaks down this week’s NFC North battle.

The Lions had a quiet showing on Sunday but were able to move to 2-1 by topping Atlanta. Detroit is optimistic that both LT Taylor Decker and RB David Montgomery will return for this game. Both would be welcomed additions in fantasy football circles.

Meanwhile, the Packers are also looking at substantial reinforcements. WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones are expected to play. Detroit enters this game as 1.5-point favorites and the over/under has risen to 46.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Detroit Lions	8	7	11	5	12
Green Bay Packers	22	18	23	15	8

Similar to last season, Detroit boasts a potent and balanced offense. The Lions are capable of moving the ball on the ground or through the air quite well. They also protect the quarterback well and avoid turnovers.

However, Detroit tends to be much more potent at home. Also, the Packers have dominated this series at Lambeau, winning 21 of the last 25.

Green Bay’s offense stands out in one key area. Scoring touchdowns. The Packers rank fifth in the NFL in third down conversion rate. Also, they’re top-10 in offense and defense red-zone efficiency.

The Packers opened as slight favorites. However, the line has shifted to Detroit now being favored.

Detroit Offense

Jared Goff posted a 109.3 QB Rating and tossed 23 of his 29 touchdowns at home last season. Goff played well on the road in Week 1 and…

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Packers game go?

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2023 Detroit Lions Team Outlook

July 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Detroit Lions Team Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Detroit Lions Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Detroit Lions Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Jared Goff

When at his best with the Rams from 2017 to 2020, Goff went 42-20 with a trip to the Super Bowl in 2018. In 2019, he led the NFL in pass attempts (626).

In his first season with the Lions, Goff went 3-10-1 with three missed games with oblique and knee issues. He was on pace for 4,000 combined yards and 23 touchdowns while showing strength in his completion rate (67.2). His weakness came in his yards per pass attempt (6.6), which regressed for the third straight year. Goff passed for over 300 yards in only one matchup (338/3) in Week 1. Over his final 12 games, he had fewer than 225 passing yards in eight contests.

Goff almost matched my projection last year, leading to 4,511 combined yards with 29 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He had a slight pullback in his completion rate (65.1) while having an uptick in big plays (57 catches of 20 yards or more, with 12 reaching the 40-yard mark). Goff averaged 34.5 passes (6th) while almost working as a modified game manager.

Over his final nine starts, Goff didn’t throw an interception while delivering 15 touchdowns. Goff passed for more than 300 yards in five matchups (378/4, 321/1, 340/2, 330/3, and 355/3) while being a much better player at home (2,472/23) than on the road (1,966/6).

Fantasy Outlook: The suspension of Jameson Williams for six games eliminates one upside-receiving option for Detroit early in the year. However, they have one of the better possession receivers in the game. And Jahmyr Gibbs has a high pass-catching floor out of the backfield. The ceiling of Goff is tied to the development of Sam LaPorta and squeezing production out of his WR3 (Marvin Jones) and WR4 (Josh Reynolds). In the early draft season, he ranks 15th at quarterback in the high-stakes market, after finishing 9th in 2022 in fantasy points (340.10) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. I view Goff as a QB2 with his matchup value at home. More of the same with a push over 30 passing scores.

Hendon Hooker

Over four seasons in college, Hooker completed 67.0% of his passes for 8,974 yards with 80 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had value in the run game (514/2,026/24). His completion rate improved each year while delivering 68 touchdowns and five interceptions over his final two seasons. Hooper has his best overall output in 2021 (3,665 combined yards with 36 touchdowns.

Fantasy Outlook: The Lions stated that they won’t use their rookie quarterback in 2023. They want him to get healthy, and a year on the bench will help him learn their offense.

Other Options: Nate Sudfeld, Adrian Martinez

— Running Backs —

The Lions’ running backs had an impressive season in 2022, even with a pullback in production in the passing game (82/685/4). Their backs led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (25) while setting three-year highs in rushing attempts (446), rushing yards (2,110), and yards per carry (4.7). They gained a combined 2,795 yards with 29 scores and 82 catches (31.5 FPPG in PPR formats).

Jahmyr Gibbs

Over three seasons at Alabama, covering 31 games, Gibbs gained 3,349 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 104 catches on 483 touches. His best success came in 2022 (151/926/7 with 44 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns). Gibbs has a sensational three-game stretch midseason (63/463/5 plus 10 catches for 81 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: The Lions will give eight to touches a week while riding him more often when he has the hot hand. I expect Gibbs to lead the NFL in plays longer than 50 yards. His floor in catches looks electric, pointing to a chance at 80 receptions out of the gate. With 225 touches, I expect 1,400 combined yards with 10 scores. Based on his early ranking (15th) at running back, Gibbs should have a circle around his name. Think Jamaal Charles in the passing game, with Chris Johnson’s explosiveness as a runner.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE LIONS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy!

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