Month: July 2023

chris olave
Season Long – All Sports

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook

July 31, 2023 Jody Smith

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Derek Carr

In his eighth season with Las Vegas in 2021, Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). On the downside, he finished below the league average in touchdowns (23) with a rise in interceptions (14). Carr passed for over 300 yards in seven of his 18 games (including the postseason), but he failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any matchup. Carr was the 12th highest-scoring quarterback (324.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues despite his low-scoring ability. Before 2021 (40/108), he chipped in with some scores on the ground over the previous three seasons (24/47/1, 27/82/2, and 39/140/3).

Coming into last season, his completion rate (68.7) was a strength from 2018 to 2021. Unfortunately, the addition of Davante Adams (100/1,516/14) gave him a true WR1, but his completion rate (60.8) was the lowest since his rookie season (58.1) in 2014. In addition, Carr had a regression in yards per pass attempt (7.0 – 7.8 from 2019 to 2021). The Raiders ended up benching him over their final two matchups. He had repeated weakness in interceptions (14) and touchdowns (24). Carr passed for more than 300 yards in two games (303/2 and 307/2) while delivering three scores in only two contests. Nine of his interceptions came over his last five starts.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the passing history of the Saints with Drew Brees behind center, Carr should throw the ball more than 600 times in 2023 while regaining his lost completion rate by throwing many passes to the running back position. WR Chris Olave (72/1,042/4) played well in his rookie season, and WR Rashid Shaheed (28/488/2) showed growth late in the year, but New Orleans still needs a second elite option in the passing game. A Michael Thomas sighting would help Carr’s passing upside. In late June, he ranked 18th at quarterback while on a path to pass for 4,300 yards and only a slight progression in touchdowns.

Other Options: Jameis Winston, Jake Haener, Taysom Hill

— Running Backs —

When reviewing the rushing data for the Saints in 2022, I need to pull out Taysom Hill’s production (96/575/7) to understand better their running back opportunity. When inputting the team stats last year, I treated Hill as a WR/TE instead of a quarterback, misrepresenting the team’s rushing profile.  New Orleans’ backs gained 1,926 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 85 catches (19.51 FPPG in PPR formats). They set three-year lows in catches (85), receiving yards (650), receiving touchdowns (2), and targets (107) while accounting for 25.2% of their receiving yards.

Alvin Kamara

The lack of quarterback play hurt Kamara in two areas in 2021. He finished with a career-low 3.7 yards per carry (5.0 over his first four years) while having a sharp decline in his value in the passing game (47/439/5 – over 80 catches each season from 2017 to 2020). Despite missing four games with a knee injury, Kamara set a career-high in rushing attempts (240). He averaged 22.1 touches, besting his previous top in 2018 (18.3 per game). Kamara gained 100 combined yards in eight of his 13 starts, leading to 18.05 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His path projected over 17 matchups would have pushed him into the top five in running back scoring.

Last season, Kamara missed another two games with an early season rib issue. Over 15 starts, he gained 1,387 combined yards with a career-low four touchdowns and 57 catches. New Orleans gave him the ball 280 times (16.5 per game) while gaining only 4.0 yards per rush. Kamara rushed for more than 100 yards in two matchups (23/103 and 23/107). His role in the passing game was diminished over his final five contests (2/11, 2/13, 2/34, 1/7, and 1/3). He posted one impact showing (158 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches).

Fantasy Outlook: Kamara has a court date on July 31st regarding an off-the-field incident early in 2022. Based on his ranking in late June (32nd) and the addition of Jamaal Williams, a suspension appears looming if found guilty. I’ll defer on his outlook until his situation clears up in August. 

Jamaal Williams

The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week) in 2021. He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). Williams missed four games with thigh, hip, and Covid-19 issues. He posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.

Despite a minimal uptick in yards per rush (4.1), Williams had the best rushing opportunity (262/1,066) of his career, highlighted by 17 touchdowns. His role in the passing game (12/73) was a career-low. He scored two touchdowns or more in six matchups while gaining more than 100 yards in two games (19/108/2 and 22/144/1). The Lions had him on the field for only 40.6% of their plays.

Fantasy Outlook: Williams gives the Saints veteran experience in case…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE SAINTS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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[…]

George Pickens
Season Long – NFL

Top 5 Breakout Wide Receivers

July 31, 2023 Shawn Childs

Top 5 Breakout Wide Receivers   The wide receiver position in fantasy football tends to be the most challenging to manage. In the high-stakes fantasy market, many top players want to be strong at wideout to eliminate decision-making from week […]

Jerry Jeudy Highlights the Top 5 Breakout Wide Receivers

 

The wide receiver position in fantasy football tends to be the most challenging to manage. In the high-stakes fantasy market, many top players want to be strong at wideout to eliminate decision-making from week to week. If your wide receiver corps has too many similar players that fall in the WR3 to WR4 range, their outcomes can be high in some weeks. But often their top games are followed by dull or empty performances.

A WR3 or flex option can make sense to have an explosive type player who can put up difference-maker scores. Last year, wide receivers produced 44 games with 30.00 fantasy points or more in PPR formats. Twelve of these games came from Justin Jefferson (7) and Davante Adams (5). No other player had more than two impact games. Outside the top 24 highest-scoring wideouts, only eight wideouts scored higher than 30.00 fantasy points. All impact games came from the top 48 scoring wide receivers.

In comparison, there were 142 wide receiver games between 20.00 and 29.95 fantasy points. Stefon Diggs (7) led this category, followed by Tyreek Hill (6) and Amari Cooper (5). Here’s the ranking by groups:

  • WR1s – 41
  • WR2s – 29
  • WR3s – 25
  • WR4s – 14
  • All others – 32

When listing my breakout wide receivers, I’m looking for players to jump at least one level in production from last year and outperform their current ADP in the high-stakes market.

circa

 

Jerry Jeudy (Denver Broncos)

The Broncos passing offense and scoring fell well below expectations in 2022. Russell Wilson posted his worst season in his 11 years in the NFL. With Sean Payton in change, Denver would be much better offensively this season. Despite their offensive struggles and Jerry Jeudy missing two games, he finished 22nd in wide receiver scoring (204.20) in PPR leagues. His best play came over the final five games (8/73/3, 7/76, 6/117, 7/38, and 5/154). Jeudy looks poised to push to WR1 status in 2023. He ranks 17th at wideout over the past month. 

WHAT OTHER WIDEOUTS MADE THE BREAKOUT LIST?

 

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[…]

bryce young
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook

July 31, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Bryce Young

Over his final two seasons at Alabama, Young completed 65.9% of his passes for 8,200 yards with 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He posted his best season in 2021 (4,782/50) while showing growth as a runner last year (49/185/4).

Young has a grip and rip-it feel after the snap, but sometimes he doesn’t throw a crisp ball. His throws do have more carry downfield than they appear after his release. Young played with top receiving talent at Alabama behind a winning offensive line. His completion windows will be smaller in the NFL, and his playground style when the pocket breaks down will lead to fewer big plays.

Fantasy Outlook: The structure of the Panthers’ receiving corps has a combination of veteran experience and some young developing options. Carolina will try to establish the run and let the progression of Young determine the number of passing attempts per game. I only see a newer version of Mac Jones in his rookie season with similar overall receiving options (NE has better tight ends, while CAR may have a higher ceiling at WR2, WR3, and WR4). My starting point is 4,000 combined yards with 22 to 26 touchdowns.


Matt Corral

Over his final two seasons at Mississippi, Corral completed 69.2% of his passes for 6,686 yards with 49 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He gained 9.4 yards per pass attempt while also being active as a runner (112/506/4 and 152/614/11). Almost one-third of his rushing yards two years ago came in one game (30/195). Over his final nine full games in 2021, Corral failed to deliver more than two passing touchdowns in any matchup. In his meeting vs. Malik Willis (173 passing yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions plus 27/71/1 on the ground) on November 6th, he gained 333 combined yards with one touchdown.

Corral also took the snap out of the shotgun on most plays, but Mississippi ran play-action run/pass options to keep defenses on their heels. He showed the ability to stick quick passes on time on a tight line while doing some dirty work in the run game. Corral must improve his decision-making on his run plays to avoid taking big hits at the next level. His desire to fight for extra yards on the ground can be a win at the goal line. Corral offered touch when asked to drive the ball downfield in the passing game, but some passes had a high vertical, which may lead to more interceptions. 

I expect him to control the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage while only using his legs when asked to move the chains. In addition, Corral will make his share of big passing plays in an offense with a top-tier run game. 

Fantasy Outlook: After missing his rookie season with a left foot injury that required surgery, Corral will start 2023 holding a clipboard as the Panthers’ QB3. 

Other Options: Andy Dalton

— Running Backs —


Over the first six games, Christian McCaffrey gained 670 combined yards with three touchdowns and 33 catches. Their other running backs held the fort after the McCaffrey trade, leading to 2,020 combined yards with 11 scores and 39 catches. Overall, the Panthers’ back set three-year highs in rushing attempts (435), rushing yards (2,013), and yards per carry (4.6). They averaged 24.94 FPPG in PPR formats.

Miles Sanders

It’s hard to imagine that Sanders didn’t score in 2021 when looking at Philly’s backs finishing with 16 touchdowns. He rushed for an impressive 5.5 yards per carry but only 6.1 yards per catch. Over the first six weeks, Sanders gained 391 yards with 18 catches on 75 touches (12.5 per game). He left Week 7 with an ankle injury that led to three more missed games. When Sanders returned to the lineup, the Eagles were much more active in the run game, leading to 446 combined yards with six catches on 73 touches. A broken hand in Week 16 ultimately ended his regular season. His stats projected over 17 games came to 1,292 combined yards with 37 catches. 

Last season, Sanders played at a similar level in the run game (259/1,269/11), but his stats looked much better due to him playing an entire year. The Eagles scored 32 rushing touchdowns, helping him set a career-best in scores (11). His biggest strike was the decline in his chance in the passing game (20/78 on 26 targets). Sanders rushed for more than 100 yards in three matchups (27/134/2, 21/143/2, and 17/144/2). Philadelphia gave him more than 20 carries in only two contests. His production lost value over the final four games (55/201 with two catches for minus seven yards). 

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the high-stake market, Sanders ranks 20th at running back, five spots lower than his finish in fantasy points (220.20) in 2022 in PPR formats. He has a 50-catch season on his resume, and Carolina ranked higher than the Eagles in running back production last year. If Sanders can stay healthy, I expect 275 touches with 1,300 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 40 catches. 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE PANTHERS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

bijan robinson
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook

July 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Atlanta Falcons Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Desmond Ridder

Ridder was a four-year starter in college who relied on his legs to make many plays (501/2,180/28). In 2021, he helped Cincinnati to an undefeated regular season (13-0) before bowing out to Alabama in the BCS Championship Series. He had growth in the passing game (3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions) while finishing with a step back in rushing production (110/355/6 – 3.2 yards per carry). Over his final three seasons, Ridder went 33-4, with three losses coming against Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama.

His movements in the pocket and the run game have similarities to DeSean Watson, but Ridder doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy in the deep passing game. He wants to throw first while having the speed and running ability to make chunk plays if Ridder sees an opening at the line of scrimmage. When in rhythm, he’ll make quick decisions over the short areas of the field. Cincinnati lined him up in the shotgun on most plays while using their back more at a safety outlet in the passing game rather than a play-action run threat. When asked to challenge a defense downfield, Ridder chose air over arm strength, which may be a problem in the NFL.

In his rookie season, the Falcons gave him four starts, leading to 764 combined yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. His best showing came in Week 18 (233/2).

Fantasy Outlook: Atlanta already named Ridder their starter for 2023. The Falcons have three upside receiving options (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson), but they will rarely throw the ball more than 30 times in a game. Ridder helps his floor with his value in the run game while being on a path to throw the ball about 475 times if he makes 17 starts. He ranks 22nd at quarterback in late June in the high-stakes market. His starting projection should be around 3,500 combined yards and 25 touchdowns (20 passing and five rushing).
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Other Options: Taylor Heinicke, Logan Franks, Feleipe Franks

— Running Backs —


The Falcons’ ball carriers gained almost a full yard per carry (4.9) more than in 2020 (3.8) and 2021 (3.9). They finished with a gain of 105 carries, 850 yards, and five touchdowns over last year’s rushing stats. As a result, they had a sharp decline in catches (53), receiving yards (333), and targets (66). Their backs gained a combined 2,549 combined yards with 14 touchdowns and 53 catches, leading to 391.9 fantasy points in PPR formats (23.05 per game).

Bijan Robinson

Over 31 games at Texas, Robinson gained 4,215 combined yards with 41 touchdowns and 60 catches. The Longhorns gave him 277 touches in 2022, highlighted by his success in the run game (258/1,580/18). His best pass-catching opportunity came in 2021 (26/295/4). Robinson finished last season with three impact games (20/183/3 with one catch for 19 yards, 30/209/1 with two catches for 34 yards, and 25/243/4).

Robinson ran many of his plays out of the shotgun where he showed patience and a counterpuncher’s mentality. It’s hard to knock him off his feet with arm tackles below the belt. His ability to hesitate in the heat of a tackle leads to surprising plays in tight quarters. Robinson’s flow and movements in the passing game project at an elite level. When seeing daylight early, he hits the gas with the wiggles to make defenders miss at the second level of the defense. 

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy world is in tune with the potential of Robinson in his rookie season based on his third ranking at running back in the high-stakes market. A high opportunity in the run game should be a given, even with Atlanta expected to rotate in a second back. His scoring power and value in the passing game are critical components to his final destination in fantasy scoring. In 2021, Desmond Ridder completed 34 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns to his running backs in college while attempting 387 passes. For now, I’ll set his bar at 325 touches with 1,800 combined yards, 10 scores, and 50 catches. 

Tyler Allgeier

Over his last two seasons at BYU, Allgeier gained 3,104 combined yards with 36 touchdowns and 42 catches on 468 touches. However, his explosiveness regressed in 2021 (5.8 yards per carry – 7.5 in 2020) after receiving a workhorse opportunity (276 rushes) in the run game. His value in the passing game improved over his final two years (14/174 and 28/199).

Allgeier brings size (5’11” and 225 lbs.) to the table, but his game isn’t built around power. He runs with vision while lacking fluidness in his runs and acceleration to make defenses pay for their makes at the first level. However, when given daylight in space, Allgeier will take what is given to him. He can succeed with volume of touches, and his value in the passing game should improve with more experience. 

In his rookie season with RB1 snaps for the Falcons, Allgeier gained 1,174 combined yards with four touchdowns and 16 catches on 226 touches. His best value came over his final four starts (70/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). 

Fantasy Outlook: With some quick math based on last year’s stats in Atlanta, Allgeier should see…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE FALCONS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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[…]

kirk cousins justin jefferson
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook

July 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Kirk Cousins

Since arriving in Minnesota, Cousins posted a 46-33-1 record, with strength in his completion rate (67.8). He averaged 32 touchdowns over five seasons with the Vikings while sitting out two games.

In 2020 and 2021, Cousins ranked 11th and 10th in fantasy scoring (366.95 and 352.35) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. His floor was 4,200 passing yards in three seasons from 2018 to 2021 while offering minimal value in the run game (44/123/1, 31/63/1, 32/156/1, and 29/115/1) over this span. In 2021, he passed for more than 300 yards in six matchups, but Cousins finished with only one impact game (32.25 fantasy points). On his down days, he scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy points in six outings, four of which gained less than 225 yards passing.

Last season, Cousins set career-highs in completions (424) and passing attempts (643), with his second-best showing in passing yards (4,547). A shorter passing window (46 sacks) led to weakness in his yards per pass attempt (7.1). After a sluggish first eight games (1,999 passing yards and 13 touchdowns), he produced three impact games (298/3, 425/2, 460/4, and 301/3) over the next seven weeks. Cousins finished 6th in quarterback scoring (354.95), falling in line with his previous two seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Cousins will have a top-five opportunity in the league to throw again in 2023 while playing with an electric WR1 (Justin Jefferson). T.J. Hockenson (60/519/3 over 10 games) proved to be an excellent addition at the trade deadline last year. The combination of K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison gives Minnesota the passing depth to test defenses all over the field. Cousins doesn’t add much on the ground (31/97/2), leading to him ranking 12th at quarterback in June. Next step: 5,000 combined yards with a career-high in touchdowns.

— Running Backs —

The Vikings running back production in rushing yards (1,556) and receiving yards (493) declined in back-to-back seasons. In addition, their yards per rush (4.2) is trending in the wrong direction. They set three-year lows in rushing attempts (369), catches (66), and targets (88). Their backs gained 2,049 yards with 19 touchdowns and 66 catches (22.64 FPPG in PPR formats). The only positive out of last year was Minnesota’s willingness to run the ball in close for touchdowns.

Alexander Mattison

Minnesota gave Mattison the best opportunity of his three-year career in 2021, leading to 719 combined yards with four touchdowns and 32 catches. In his three games with starting snaps and over 20 touches (32, 32, and 25), he delivered Dalvin Cook-type production in fantasy points (23.10, 27.30, and 21.40) in PPR formats. However, over his other 13 matchups, Mattison scored only 55.60 combined fantasy points. In addition, his yards per rush (3.7) and yards per catch (7.1) came in at career lows.

Last season, he saw his role slide to the lowest point in his four years (374 combined yards with six touchdowns and 15 catches on 89 touches). Mattison finished with the second-most running back snaps (304 – 24.8%). His decline in chances was due to Dalvin Cook staying healthier in 2022. On the downside, Mattison gained only 3.8 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per rush. His only playable fantasy game came in Week 18 (10/54/2 with one catch for six yards).

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, Mattison ranks 31st at running back as they wait for the Vikings to give some inside on their running back plans in 2023. He’s shown flashes over his career, suggesting 200 touches are within reach. On the downside, Mattison doesn’t have the resume or ceiling to keep the starting job if he stumbles out of the gate. My starting point is 1,000 combined yards with six to eight scores and 30 catches. His outlook will fluctuate over the summer.

Ty Chandler

 

The Vikings took a flier on Chandler in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He saw action over five years in college, leading to 3,810 combined yards with 30 touchdowns and 72 catches. His stock rose in 2021 after switching to North Carolina (182/1,092/13 with 14 catches for 207 yards and one score). 

Chandler brings elite speed (4.38 40-yard dash) to Minnesota. His hands grade higher than

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE VIKINGS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

christian watson
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook

July 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Jordan Love

Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 

I don’t like how he slides in the pocket on some rollout passes, leading to a longer transition time to unload the ball. Love will struggle to break free from a tight pocket under pressure while lacking the release to get the ball out quickly and on time.

Based on 2019, Love didn’t belong in the top college QB conversation. He passed for 3,402 yards with 20 touchdowns, but 17 of his throws ended up in the hands of his opponents. Love also rushed for 175 yards on 81 carries while failing to score on the ground. His stock was trending up after his sophomore season in 2018 (3,567 passing yards and 39 combined touchdowns). However, Love saw his yards per pass attempt fall from 8.6 to 7.2 in 2019.

In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 

Fantasy Outlook: Compared to 2022, the Packers have better receiving weapons at their disposal, and Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs also have a year’s worth of experience under their belt. Love is the 21st quarterback drafted in the high-stakes market in the latter third of June. I see 4,000 combined yards with questions about his ability to deliver passing scores in the red zone. His summer reports and the development of his receivers will determine his 2023 fantasy value.

Sean Clifford

Clifford went 32-16 over five seasons as the starting quarterback for Penn State. His best success in record came in 2019 (10-2) and 2022 (11-2). He improved his completion rate each year, highlighted by his senior year (64.4%). The Nittany Lions used him in RPO plays, leading to 388 rushes for 1,073 yards and 15 touchdowns despite gaining only 2.8 yards per carry. 

Fantasy Outlook: Clifford will compete for the Packers’ backup quarterback job with a minimal opportunity unless Jordan Love has an injury. 

Other Options: Danny Etling

— Running Backs —

Green Bay’s running backs have been active and productive over the past three seasons. They gained 2,638 combined yards in 2022 with 16 touchdowns and 88 catches or 447.80 fantasy points in PPR formats (26.34 FPPG).

Aaron Jones

In 2021, the Packers had Jones on the field for 620 plays (57.6%) over his 15 games, compared to 410 snaps by A.J. Dillon. He finished with a career-high in catches (52) with 391 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the downside, Jones averaged only 11.4 rushing attempts, leading to a step back in rushing yards (799) and rushing touchdowns (4). After a short game in Week 1 (22 combined yards with two catches), he played well over the following five weeks (529 combined yards with six touchdowns and 19 catches on 97 touches). However, his play and opportunity (119 touches) regressed over his final nine games (639 combined yards with four touchdowns and 31 catches) while missing two matchups with a knee issue.

Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past three seasons, Jones ranked 7th (251.60), 11th (230.00), and 5th (258.90) in fantasy scoring in PPR formats. His value in the passing game helps his floor while also offering the explosiveness to deliver impact games when Jones hits a long scoring play. His downside risk comes from regression in rushing touchdowns (6 – 33 from 2018 to 2020) over the past two years. Despite his winning resume, Jones is the 16th running back off the board in June. I’ll set his bar as 1,200 combined yards with seven scores and 45 catches.

A.J. Dillon

Despite an RB2 role for the Packers in 2021, Dillion gained 1,116 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 34 catches on 221 touches (13 per game). Green Bay gave him the best opportunity (65 touches) from Week 10 to Week 12 (315 combined yards with three touchdowns and 13 catches) while gaining only 3.6 yards per carry. Dillon scored seven of his eight touchdowns over his final nine matchups (including the postseason). He finished with better-than-expected results in the passing game (34/313/2).

Last year, Dillion had a similar opportunity (12.6 touches per game) as his rookie season, but he gained 140 fewer yards and six less catches. From Week 2 to Week 11, Dillon failed to reach paydirt, leading to below 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in each matchup. His stock rose over a three-game stretch (17.80, 20.90, and 22.10 fantasy points). He scored six of his seven touchdowns over five games late in the year.

Fantasy Outlook: Dillon ranked 27th in running back scoring (167.60) in PPR leagues. His regression in yards per rush (5.3, 4.3, and 4.1) and yards per catch (10.5, 9.2, and 7.4) suggest questionable value this year due to…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE PACKERS IN 2023?

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Amon-Ra St. Brown
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Detroit Lions Team Outlook

July 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Detroit Lions Team Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Detroit Lions Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Detroit Lions Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Jared Goff

When at his best with the Rams from 2017 to 2020, Goff went 42-20 with a trip to the Super Bowl in 2018. In 2019, he led the NFL in pass attempts (626).

In his first season with the Lions, Goff went 3-10-1 with three missed games with oblique and knee issues. He was on pace for 4,000 combined yards and 23 touchdowns while showing strength in his completion rate (67.2). His weakness came in his yards per pass attempt (6.6), which regressed for the third straight year. Goff passed for over 300 yards in only one matchup (338/3) in Week 1. Over his final 12 games, he had fewer than 225 passing yards in eight contests. 

Goff almost matched my projection last year, leading to 4,511 combined yards with 29 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He had a slight pullback in his completion rate (65.1) while having an uptick in big plays (57 catches of 20 yards or more, with 12 reaching the 40-yard mark). Goff averaged 34.5 passes (6th) while almost working as a modified game manager.

Over his final nine starts, Goff didn’t throw an interception while delivering 15 touchdowns. Goff passed for more than 300 yards in five matchups (378/4, 321/1, 340/2, 330/3, and 355/3) while being a much better player at home (2,472/23) than on the road (1,966/6).

Fantasy Outlook: The suspension of Jameson Williams for six games eliminates one upside-receiving option for Detroit early in the year. However, they have one of the better possession receivers in the game. And Jahmyr Gibbs has a high pass-catching floor out of the backfield. The ceiling of Goff is tied to the development of Sam LaPorta and squeezing production out of his WR3 (Marvin Jones) and WR4 (Josh Reynolds). In the early draft season, he ranks 15th at quarterback in the high-stakes market, after finishing 9th in 2022 in fantasy points (340.10) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. I view Goff as a QB2 with his matchup value at home. More of the same with a push over 30 passing scores.

Hendon Hooker

Over four seasons in college, Hooker completed 67.0% of his passes for 8,974 yards with 80 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had value in the run game (514/2,026/24). His completion rate improved each year while delivering 68 touchdowns and five interceptions over his final two seasons. Hooper has his best overall output in 2021 (3,665 combined yards with 36 touchdowns.

Fantasy Outlook: The Lions stated that they won’t use their rookie quarterback in 2023. They want him to get healthy, and a year on the bench will help him learn their offense.

Other Options: Nate Sudfeld, Adrian Martinez

— Running Backs —

The Lions’ running backs had an impressive season in 2022, even with a pullback in production in the passing game (82/685/4). Their backs led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (25) while setting three-year highs in rushing attempts (446), rushing yards (2,110), and yards per carry (4.7). They gained a combined 2,795 yards with 29 scores and 82 catches (31.5 FPPG in PPR formats).

Jahmyr Gibbs

Over three seasons at Alabama, covering 31 games, Gibbs gained 3,349 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 104 catches on 483 touches. His best success came in 2022 (151/926/7 with 44 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns). Gibbs has a sensational three-game stretch midseason (63/463/5 plus 10 catches for 81 yards). 

Fantasy Outlook: The Lions will give eight to touches a week while riding him more often when he has the hot hand. I expect Gibbs to lead the NFL in plays longer than 50 yards. His floor in catches looks electric, pointing to a chance at 80 receptions out of the gate. With 225 touches, I expect 1,400 combined yards with 10 scores. Based on his early ranking (15th) at running back, Gibbs should have a circle around his name. Think Jamaal Charles in the passing game, with Chris Johnson’s explosiveness as a runner.

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE LIONS IN 2023?

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Justin Fields
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Chicago Bears Outlook

July 28, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Chicago Bears Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Chicago Bears Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Detroit Lions Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Justin Fields

Fields played for one of the best football programs in the NCAA in 2019 and 2020. And he did them proud by going 20-2 despite failing to win a national championship. He passed for 5,373 yards with 63 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Fields finished his college career with 260 rushes for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns.

Despite some impressive stats, Fields came with knocks from some NFL scouts. He needs to improve his pre-snap reads when facing the blitz, plus show more quickness in his release under duress. Also, his strengths come from his toughness and playmaking ability while having the base to break the pocket after getting hit. Fields takes what the defense gives him as a runner, which gains value at the goal line. His arm has the strength to make all the NFL throws. Fields also plays very well when asked to throw on the run.

Fields went 2-8 in his rookie season with more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). His completion rate (58.9) and yards per pass attempt (6.9) showed weakness. However, he ran the ball exceptionally well (72/420/2). Over his first six starts, Fields passed for more than 210 yards in one matchup (291/1) while delivering only five combined scores. He missed time late in the year with an ankle issue and Covid-19.

For the second consecutive season, Fields lost momentum late in the year due to an injury. He took a nasty hit in Week 11, leading to a missed game, while also sitting out Week 18 with a hip issue. Despite having high hopes as a QB2 in the fantasy market in 2022, Fields played his way off rosters after a dismal first four games (34-for-67 with 471 yards passing, two touchdowns, and four interceptions plus 34 runs for 147 yards and a score). 

The Bears allowed him to run more from Week 6 to Week 11 (80/640/6), leading to an impressive run (21.30, 26.15, 27.55, 43.95, 42.05, and 25.15 fantasy points). His electric game (301 combined yards with four touchdowns) vs. the Dolphins helped me win $250,000 at DraftKings. Fields never threw more than 28 pass attempts in any matchup. His rushing stats (160/1,143/8) accounted for 49.0% of his fantasy points. He gained more than 20 yards on 10 rushes, with four plays reaching the 40-yard mark.

Fantasy Outlook: Chicago gave Fields an upgrade at WR1 (DJ Moore) in the offseason. Also, his secondary receiving options (Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet) should be better in 2023. Fields finished 11th in quarterback scoring (331.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. I can’t expect him to have as many long runs this year, but he still gained 5.8 yards per carry in 2021 with three runs of 20 yards or more. With 17 games played, he should run the ball 170 times with 1,000 yards and six to eight scores. To reach 3,000 yards passing, Fields must average 176 yards and 25 passes per game. With 20 passing touchdowns, my quick math adds up to 360.00+ fantasy points. He ranks 7th at quarterback in mid-June in the high-stakes market. I sense a player close to 10th, but I also understand Fields could outperform my early outlook.

Other Options: PJ Walker, Nathan Peterman, Tyson Bagent

— Running Backs —

The threat of Justin Fields running helped the Bears’ running backs by keeping linebackers honest in the attacks vs. the run. They gained 4.8 yards per rush, compared to 4.0 in 2021. Despite only seven more rushing attempts, their backs rushed for 345 more yards with a similar output in rushing touchdowns (10). Chicago barely threw to their running backs (46/414/2 on 62 targets), but they did gain an impressive 9.0 yards per catch.

D’Onta Foreman

After an injury to Derrick Henry in 2021, Foreman worked his way into serviceable snaps late in the year. He finished 689 combined yards with three scores and nine catches. Tennessee gave him 20 touches or more in four of their final six matchups, leading to 542 yards with three touchdowns and six catches (13.03 FPPG in PPR formats).

Foreman appeared to have a minimal role in 2022 after signing with the Panthers as depth behind Christian McCaffery. Over the first six weeks, he only had 12 rushes for 37 yards with no chances in the passing game. When Carolina decided to trade their star running back, Foreman responded with more than 100 yards rushing in four of his first six starts (15/118, 26/118/3, 31/130/1, and 24/113). Unfortunately, he puts up six short fantasy games (4.30, 2.40, 8.50, 0.90, 3.50, and 6.80) over his final nine matchups. His only other playable outcome came in Week 16 (21/165/1). 

Fantasy Outlook: Foreman has the inside track on the Bears to be their big back with almost no value on passing downs. He’ll have to hold off incoming rookie Roschon Johnson in the preseason before determining his potential in the fantasy market. Possible 200/850/5 player with more upside if given 14 or more starts.

Khalil Herbert

Herbert has early-down potential and needs rhythm timing to excel through the line of scrimmage. When on the move, he flows to the hole with vision and acceleration to reach the second level of the defense. Herbert gets in trouble when hitting roadblocks due to his gearing and taking a couple of steps to reach peak speed. His pass protection needs to improve, with minimal early value in the passing game.

Over five seasons at Virginia Tech, Herbert finished with 3,214 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 34 catches. His highlight year was 2020 (1,361 combined yards with nine scores and 10 catches). 

With David Montgomery injured over four games in 2021, Herbert gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).

The Bears gave him the starts in Week 3 vs. the Texans last season with Montgomery out. Herbert responded with an impact game (20/157/2 with two catches for 12 yards). His touches fluctuated over his final nine matchups (77/414/1 with four catches for 20 yards) while missing four weeks with a hip injury. Chicago had him on the field for 29.1% of their plays. Herbert scored 6.00 fantasy points or fewer over his last five games.

Fantasy Outlook: This season, the Bears should try to get him on the field for…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BEARS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]