NFL OTA offseason workouts are now underway, joining FFWC best ball and Dynasty Football World Championship drafts that began weeks ago. With so many drafts in the books, an early fantasy ADP has already been established. Studying the FFWC ADP Risers & Fallers can give savvy fantasy drafters a significant advantage.
Knowing which players are early 2023 fantasy fades can also be beneficial.
Let’s explore some of the early FFWC ADP risers & fallers and what kind of impact this movement will have on fantasy football roster construction in 2023. And while we’re on the subject, now is a great time to adopt a Dynasty Football World Championship squad.
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— ADP Risers —
Anthony Richardson (QB) Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 154, +54)
Anthony Richardson, a rookie quarterback for the Colts, has experienced a significant rise in his Average Draft Position (ADP), with an increase of 54 spots since the NFL Draft.
Despite only starting for one year at Florida, Richardson impressed at the NFL Combine and garnered attention from teams, eventually being selected as the fourth overall pick. Colts owner Jim Irsay has confirmed that Richardson will start this season. However, the number of games he will play is still undetermined.
In just three weeks, Richardson’s draft stock has climbed approximately 4.5 rounds. It will be intriguing to see how high he will be drafted by August. As of right now though, Richardson is being criminally undervalued in FFWC Best-Ball Drafts as QB 24.
Lamar Jackson (QB) Baltimore Ravens (ADP 45, +47)
Lamar Jackson recently signed a five-year contract extension worth $260 million. This significant deal allows fantasy managers to fully invest in Jackson for the 2023 season. Baltimore’s investment in a rebuilt supporting cast has also helped Jackson’s ADP.
The Ravens also drafted wide receiver Zay Flowers and added veteran receiver Odell Beckham Jr further contributing to the surge in Jackson’s ADP. Flowers provides another weapon for the 26-year-old quarterback in the middle of the field. Jackson is my favorite elite QB pick as the 6th QB off the board in FFWC Best-Ball Drafts.
Jerick McKinnon (RB) Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 160, +46)
Jerick McKinnon’s decision to re-sign with the Chiefs on May 2nd led to a notable increase in his Average Draft Position. The Chiefs did not acquire any formidable competition at the running back position during the NFL Draft, solidifying Isaiah Pacheco as the presumed starter while McKinnon handles the passing-down duties.
McKinnon offers considerable fantasy potential and remains a cost-effective option as the RB 48 in FFWC Best-Ball drafts.
James Connor (RB) Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 66, +33)
Connor was a big winner in the 2023 NFL draft. The Cardinals didn’t add a running back in the draft and spent a top-10 pick on franchise LT Paris Johnson Jr. The Cards are expected to play from behind a bunch this season but Connor has a proven track record catching the ball. I like his ADP as the 24th RB off the board.
Adam Thielen (WR) Carolina Panthers (ADP 75, +76)
Apparently, everyone is excited about the new landing spot for the veteran wide receiver. The Panthers have a rookie at QB in Bryce Young and added WR Jonathan Mingo in the draft while also signing DJ Chark in the off-season, so I am not sure why Thielen’s stock has risen so high.
Thielen is well past his prime at age 33 when the season starts. Despite the abundant routes Theilen ran in 2022, there are plenty of red flags about his skill set dropping off. I will be fading him everywhere in 2023.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) San Francisco 49ers (ADP 79, +24)
The Niners added nothing of note to their offense in 2023, but I’m not really sure why there has been a recent surge in ADP for the 25-year-old WR. After a breakout in 2022 which saw Aiyuk eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, fantasy drafters are looking for another great season making him the WR27 off the board in FFWC drafts.
The price is fair for the up-and-coming wideout, but I would like to see who settles in at QB before committing.
Dalton Kincaid (TE) Buffalo Bills (ADP 166, +19)
The highest-drafted rookie tight end, Dalton Kincaid found himself in a highly advantageous situation for potential fantasy output. It’s worth noting that rookie tight ends often face challenges in their first season, but word on the street is that Kincaid will be more of a big slot WR than a TE.
Currently, Kincaid is being drafted as the TE24 in FFWC drafts, which is nowhere near as high as he will reach this summer….and I’m all in.
— ADP Fallers —
Deshaun Watson (QB) Cleveland Browns (ADP: 100, -29)
Watson’s drop in ADP is probably just collateral damage from a bunch of the other QBs around him adding weapons and rising in ADP. The NFL Draft didn’t hurt Watson as the Browns used their first pick in the draft on WR Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee. If you liked Watson before the NFL draft you should like him even more now.
Geno Smith (QB) Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 130, -12)
Geno Smith has recently dropped in FFWC ADP and I have no idea why…
The Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whom many consider the top wide receiver in this year’s draft class, which should enhance Smith’s draft value. Smith-Njigba joins DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as an elite pass-catching group for the ten-year veteran quarterback. He currently holds the QB16 position on FFWC boards but possesses the potential to be a fantasy QB1 this season.
Tyler Allgeier (RB) Atlanta Falcons (ADP 156, -74)
This is simple. The Falcons took a generational talent in Bijan Robinson during the 2023 NFL Draft. I do think Allgeier is an elite handcuff, so don’t just ignore him.
Allgeier’s 1,035 rushing yards in 2022 trailed only Ken Walker among rookie backs. Arthur Smith’s Falcons are sure to remain among the run-heaviest offenses in the league. Allgeier should remain plenty involved and that makes him a very nice value with his plummeting draft stock.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB) Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 196, -87)
The Eagles made a trade for running back D’Andre Swift during the NFL Draft, causing disappointment among Gainwell fans and resulting in a significant drop in his Average Draft Position. The 24-year-old running back’s ADP has plummeted by over 7 rounds following the arrival of pass-catching back Swift.
Although Swift and Rashaad Penny are currently higher in the running back depth chart, both players have a history of struggling with injuries throughout their NFL careers. Given this, Gainwell presents an appealing option for late-round selections in best ball drafts.
Furthermore, his current value as RB59 is quite inexpensive, making him an affordable choice for fantasy managers if they want a deep sleeper.
Jameson Williams (WR) Detroit Lions (ADP 105, -30)
Williams was suspended for six games. Obviously, that had a huge negative impact on his value. Jameson Williams has experienced a decline of approximately two and a half rounds since May 1st.
Williams is a fine pick as WR49 especially if you are gonna stack him with other Lions pass-catchers. Expect his ADP to continue to plummet with a gradual recovery as Week 1 approaches.
Tyler Lockett (WR) Seattle Seahawks (ADP 62, -20)
Lockett was a big loser from the NFL Draft. The Seahawks added arguably the best WR in the draft class in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Their skill sets seem to overlap as well as being slot receivers. However, Lockett should slide outside and compete with WR DK Metcalf for targets.
I still like Lockett as a player but hid FFWC WR28 ADP seems a little steep.
Jake Ferguson (TE) Dallas Cowboys (ADP: Undrafted)
Dallas selected Luke Schoonmaker as the 58th overall pick in the draft. That will have a big impact on Jake Ferguson’s value in fantasy football. It remains uncertain how the rookie will find his place in the NFL and with the Cowboys. Nevertheless, taking a chance on Ferguson with your final pick in best ball formats remains a viable option. Currently, Ferguson is going undrafted in FFWC Best-Ball drafts.
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