Week 18 NFL Player Props
After a three-week winning streak, we finally failed to produce a profitable week in Week 17, finishing 3-4 (-1.2 Units). Fortunately, we are still 51-39 (+12.6 Units) on the 2023 NFL campaign with just one final week to go before the postseason! The FullTime Fantasy Week 18 NFL Player Props looks to conclude the regular season with another winning week.
As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 18’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action and the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will close out the week on Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances.
Finally, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 18 NFL player props, and continue our profitable NFL season.
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Dak Prescott UNDER 274.5 Passing Yards (-110)
It’s tough to bet against Prescott when he’s playing a 4-12 Commanders squad that has allowed at least 27 points in seven consecutive outings but this is a complicated wager. The 11-5 Cowboys can clinch the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference with a victory on Sunday but they also need to be disciplined and scoreboard watching. The Cowboys have a playoff game next week no matter what so the most important thing for Dallas is keeping its stars healthy.
If Dallas gets out to a quick lead as I suspect they will, they should lean heavily on the run. Subsequently, Tony Pollard will attempt to bleed as much of the clock as possible and if Dallas has a three-possession lead late in the second half, it would be wise for the Cowboys to bench Prescott to keep him healthy for their postseason run.
Although Prescott is capable of smashing this number every single week, particularly with the meteoric rise of CeeDee Lamb, I expect the Cowboys to have such a comfortable lead that Prescott won’t even finish the game. Take the Under.
Justin Fields OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Bears may not have a shot at the postseason but don’t think that Justin Fields has nothing to play for as his career with Chicago’s franchise is potentially on the line. This could be his last opportunity to showcase his talent as the Bears could decide to replace Fields in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Fields didn’t need any extra motivation against a division rival such as the Packers but now he has it. Back in the first week of the season, Fields surpassed this line during these teams’ first meeting. And since returning from injury, he’s averaged 65.6 rushing yards per game over the past six games. He only managed to average 39.5 rushing yards per game over his first six games. Considering he’s the team’s best rusher, it’s no surprise that the Bears are letting him run with the rock more. The kid is electric and explosive.
Finally, Fields can play spoiler and knock the Packers out of the NFL Playoffs. I expect him to ball out in this one and think he will easily surpass this line given Chicago’s options in the backfield. Take the Over.
Bijan Robinson OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Robinson has had no problem clearing this number in each of his previous two outings and despite a matchup with a very tough New Orleans Saints defense, I anticipate the Falcons to lean on their star running back when their season is on the line this week. Although the Falcons coaching staff often leaves me scratching my head, I think they know that their best chances at winning are by getting the ball in the electric rookie’s hands.
In Week 16, Bijan produced 72 rushing yards and last week against the Bears, he tallied 75 yards on the ground. Perhaps more importantly, B-Rob motored for 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in his previous and only meeting with the Saints. New Orleans has a very stout front seven but I think Robinson gets it done with this low line.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Contract incentives can sometimes play a role in finding valuable player props. Interestingly enough, Gibbs needs 85 rushing yards to reach the 1,000 mark while teammate David Montgomery needs 25 more rushing yards. They could become just the eighth duo of teammates to each 1,000 rushing yards in a season. Of course, 85 rushing yards is a lot so that might not happen but I am betting on Gibbs’ motivation to at least get close to that number.
The rookie has had a great campaign and has been one of the most explosive backs in the entire NFL since Halloween. During that nine-game span, Gibbs is averaging 74.2 rushing yards per game. And this week, he faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that was dominated by Aaron Jones and Green Bay’s offensive line last week. Jones finished with 120 yards. Over the past three weeks, Green Bay has surrendered 133.3 rushing yards per game.
While Montgomery might get some of the short-yardage opportunities, I think Dan Campbell has figured out that Gibbs is the more talented playmaker and Gibbs should see 15+ touches on Sunday. Also, he tends to rip off big runs so I expect no different against a Vikings team that has nothing left to play for.
Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jefferson hasn’t had the season he was hoping for; between an injury to his star quarterback Kirk Cousins and his own injury, Jefferson has not posted the numbers we all expected. However, he’s in a prime spot to succeed this week as he faces a Detroit Lions secondary that has been horrendous against opposing top wideouts. Jefferson already lit this secondary up for 141 receiving yards back in Week 16 but look at what other WR1s have done to gash this secondary:
So since Week 10, the Lions are allowing 124.3 yards per game to opposing top wide receivers.
Jefferson had an awful outing last week but that was in large part due to Jaren Hall being under center. Once Mullens returned to the lineup, he was able to at least haul in four catches on nine targets for 46 yards in the second half. And don’t forget that he logged 225 combined receiving yards in his previous two full games following his return from injury.
JJ has also had a 33% target share and just under 10 targets per game from Mullens over the last three weeks. I expect Jefferson to go ballistic this week as he surpasses the century mark and blows past this line. Take the Over… with confidence!
Mike Evans OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Back in Week 13 when the Bucs played the Panthers, Evans produced seven receptions on 12 targets for 162 receiving yards and one trip to the end zone. Not much has changed in the past five weeks and the line is only two yards higher now than it was then.
On the season, Evans is averaging 77.1 yards per game, and given the stakes for the Bucs this week — they win and they are NFC South champs — it’s hard to envision a game plan in which Baker Mayfield isn’t getting the ball into their best playmaker’s hands. Although Carolina is much more vulnerable against the run than the pass, I still expect Evans to leave his imprint on this game..
Trey McBride OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
McBride has topped his Over/Under in seven of 10 games this season and although he’s coming off a relatively quiet game in which he only tallied six catches for 48 yards, he seems to remain the go-to guy in this offense.
Volume is king in this game and the second-year tight end is consistently seeing 7-10 targets per game with Kyler Murray under center. McBride is becoming one of the best tight ends in the game. Not only does he have great hands but he also can break tackles and produce a ton of yards after the catch.
He should be a big part of the game plan once again, as both the first option on many reads and as the safety valve in the middle of the field. McBride should end his season with another fine performance as the Cads wrap up their season against a Seahawks secondary that ranks in the middle of the pack at defending opposing tight ends.
Finally, the Cardinals will likely be playing catch-up against the Seahawks so I anticipate a ton of looks McBride’s way.