Tonight’s slate is split up differently on the 2 main sites (DK and FD). DK slate starts at 6:10 and offers 4 games, while FD starts at 7:05 and only has 3 games.
Weather looks good for the games tonight.
PITCHERS
Trevor Bauer
Bauer faces the Blue Jays who have been cold at the plate to start the season batting a.202, (.195 vs RHP with a 21% K rate). He posses the highest ceiling on this small slate and gets a good matchup, therefore he should be chalk. He is coming off a solid performance vs the Twins throwing 7 innings and striking out 9 batters while only allowing 1 hit and 1 run. I expect 6-7 innings, 7-8Ks and possible a run.
Aaron Sanchez
Sanzhez becomes a viable option on a small slate against an Indians team that he has pitched well against in the past and have not been hitting well to start the season. Indians vs RHP so far this year .154 average with a 31.7% K rate and only 2 HRs. Sanchez does a good job at keep the ball on the ground at a 50% rate and limits HRs (.8 & 1.1 HR/9 2018). His main issue is walking batters, especially LHHs at a 16% clip. I don’t expect him to come out of this game clean and Jose Ramirez is the one bat that worries me against him the most. I do think he pitches well enough tonight and expect 6 inning 7Ks and 2 ERs.
Max Fried-DarkHorse(Risky/Reward play)
This is a risky play vs the Cubs. Fried has shown some K upside in his short Major League career with a 31% K rate of 31 innings in 2018 ( He has been around a 27% K rate in the minors over the past 2 years as well). In limited sample size he pitched well vs RHHs, which makes up a good portion of the Cubs lineup. The K upside is what I am looking at today. Hopeful- 6 innings, 7Ks and 2 ERs. Most likely- 5 innings 6Ks and 3ERs.
TEAMS
Braves- face Yu Darvish tonight who only lasted 2.2 innings in his first outing and has been prone to the longball allowing 1.5 HRs/9 in 2017(limited season) and 27 in 2016. Braves should give Darvish some trouble tonight and it starts with Inciarte. Bats to consider- Inciarte, Freeman, Albies, Markakis, Acuna with consideration for Swanson for value.
Reds- face one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Jordan Lyles. Last year vs RHHs Lyles posted a .355 wOBA, 1.5 HRs/9 and a 40% HC rate while only striking out 6 batters per 9. He pitched a bit better to LHHs last year, but in 2017 he got lit up by them allowing over 2 HRs/9 and a .433 wOBA and was any better vs RHHs. Reds bats to target- Eugene Suarez, Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Jose Peraza & for DK Tucker Barnhart. Braves- face Yu Darvish tonight who only lasted 2.2 innings in his first outing and has been prone to the longball allowing 1.5 HRs/9 in 2017(limited season) and 27 in 2016. Braves should give Darvish some trouble tonight and it starts with Inciarte. Bats to consider- Inciarte, Freeman, Albies, Markakis, Acuna with consideration for Swanson for value.
BATS
Ender Inciarte (value play)
Inciarte should lead off tonight vs RHP Yu Darvish tonight. In limited innings last year Darvish allowed close to 2 HRs/9 to LHHs and was not any better in 2017 1.8 HRs/9. Inciarte has decent pop and speed upside and will start off the Braves stack vs Darvish tonight. Inciarte, Freeman, Markakis and either Swanson or Acuna are all in play here. 2 options- Inciarte, Freeman, Acuna or Inciarte, Freeeman, Markakis
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera is hitting well to start the season with 3 HRs in 6 games. He faces off against Matt Harvery, who is not the same pitcher anymore and allowed close to 2 HRs/9 to LHHs last year. Cabrera has shown to hit the ball well from the left side of the plate vs RHPs with a .351 wOBA,. .231 ISO and 40% HC rate. A few other Ranger bats can be considered vs Harvery- Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus and a value play- Ronald Guzman.
Eugenio Suarez
Ranked 2nd on my Batter model today right behind Mike Trout. Suarez hits the ball well vs RHP with some power with 23 HRs last year vs them and a .356 wOBA, 231 IS0 and 46% HC rate. Lyles has not faired well vs RHHs in the 2018 allowing 1.6 HRs/9 and 41% HC rate. Reds are in a good spot vs Lyles tonight and may get overlooked tonight,
VALUE BATS
Zack Cozart
Dansby Swanson
Kole Calhoun
Colin Moran
