2018 Rookie ADP Analysis: Unpredictable Stocks

Dynasty Football Expert Riley Bymaster takes a look at five of the most polarizing rookies from a Fantasy Football perspective!

Bo Scarbrough
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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As dynasty rookie drafts are officially underway, trends are beginning to form and a general consensus may be forming. Because the NFL draft caused landing spots to be murky, 2018 rookie drafts seem to be more difficult than previous years’ drafts. After our Lord and Savior Saquon Barkley, it was originally thought to be Derrius Guice and the rest of the field, but after Guice slipped to the end of the second round, Barkley appeared to be the only sure-fire selection this season.

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With the somewhat uncertain rankings, the community now has data from 51 rookie drafts in The Dynasty Fantasy World Championships to analyze exactly how the rookie dominoes have been falling into place.

Ranges – Whose price will be unpredictable come draft day?

ADP RankPlayerHighLowRange
34Bo Scarbrough116857
38Sam Darnold167155
40Josh Adams187052
28J’Mon Moore217150
39Justin Jackson237249

Listed above are the players with the largest draft slot ranges in the 2018 class. Should any of these players be on your target list heading into your rookie draft, be prepared to be sniped out of nowhere or be forced to trade up earlier than expected in order to draft the player(s).

1. RB Bo Scarbrough, Dallas Cowboys

With an ADP 42.08, Scarbrough is currently the 34th player being taken. In 12-team leagues, this equates to the 3.10 draft slot. On average this seems like a fair value, but at the highest point, the new Cowboy running back was drafted at 1.11. At the other end of the spectrum, Scarbrough slipped to the 6.08. He can be had at almost any point in the draft, but depending on your league mates, he may need to be reached for despite his limited ceiling behind star Ezekiel Elliott.

2. QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets

Number three overall pick Sam Darnold is easily one of the most polarizing players in this year’s class. Darnold’s ability to win big games and make outstanding throws is quite contradictive to his sloppy footwork and inconsistent mechanics. He is a love or hate prospect, proven by his high draft slot of 2.04 and low of 6.11. In superflex leagues, he is likely to be consistently in the first and second rounds, but in one-quarterback leagues, Darnold’s price is extremely unpredictable.

3. RB Josh Adams, Philadelphia Eagles

Despite going undrafted, Adams landed in an intriguing situation. Inside the Eagles’ running back room, Jay Ajayi is known to have a degenerative knee issue, Corey Clement showed well but is not a three-down workhorse, and Darren Sproles is turning 60 this year. Adams has a chance to make the roster and earn an early down role especially if one of the other backs should get hurt. On average, Adams is the 40th player off the board with an ADP of 46.36. He can likely be had for a fourth-round pick, but with his high draft slot of 18, his potentially juicy landing spot could be vaulting him towards the early third round of rookie drafts.


4. WR J’Mon Moore, Green Bay Packers

Moore was one of the three receivers Green Bay selected during this year’s draft, so it is likely he has one of the more unpredictable prices. With his high draft position being 2.09, there are many owners who believe Moore possesses the highest ceiling of the three rookie Packer receivers. He is the 28th player being taken thus far, so the early-mid third round is the likely home for Moore; however, he has slid into the fifth round in some drafts. Though some believe in his upside, Moore is likely to be an early third round pick with potential to slide a bit further.

5. RB Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers

Likely to be the new backup behind Melvin Gordon, Northwestern alum Justin Jackson has been generating a ton of interest in the dynasty community since the NFL draft. Jackson’s excellent college production and appealing landing spot is the cause of his late third-early fourth round ADP. With a high draft slot of 2.11 and low of 6.11, Jackson could be taken anywhere in between, depending on other owners’ opinions on both Jackson and starter Melvin Gordon. Jackson’s stock is unpredictable, so if he is a target, he likely needs to be traded up for in order to acquire him.

Though these players are not first round values, they are likely on many owners’ draft boards. Their ultimate stock depends on how much an owner is willing to spend, so if you do not want to miss out on one of the late-round selections, be sure to keep in mind that these five players have the biggest ranges and unpredictable draft stocks.

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