2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence had a sensational three-year career at Clemson. He went 34-2, with his two losses coming in the national championship playoffs. Lawrence won the MVP and national championship in his freshman season in 2018.
He finished his college career with 10,098 passing yards, 90 passing touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. His completion rate (66.6) improved each year (69.2 in 2020). Over his last two seasons, Lawrence scored 17 rushing touchdowns while gaining 766 yards on 171 carries. His value as a runner peaked in 2019 (103/563/9 – 5.5 yards per rush).
Lawrence’s rookie hype/buzz ended after Week 1 (332/3). He threw seven interceptions over his first three starts, plus two lost fumbles. Over his final 16 games, Lawrence passed for over 300 yards in one other game (319/1) while averaging only 199 passing yards with nine touchdowns over his other 15 contests. He finished the year ranked 22nd in quarterback scoring (257.65) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, with 17.6% of his scoring coming via the run game (73/334/2). The Jaguars’ offensive line allowed 32 sacks.
Last season, Lawrence played at the level that Jacksonville envisioned when drafting him in 2021. He gained 4,404 combined yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His one lacking area was his yards per pass attempt (7.0). Lawrence gained more than 300 yards in six games, with his best play coming in Week 14 (386/4) and Week 15 (339/4). However, defenses held him to one passing touchdown or fewer in 11 of his 19 games (including the postseason).
Fantasy Outlook: Lawrence finished last season 7th in fantasy scoring (354.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. He posted between 20.00 and 30.00 fantasy points in nine starts while adding two impact showings (37.10 and 32.00) over 19 games. Lawrence ranks eighth at quarterback in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. His next step should be 4,800 combined yards with 30 passing touchdowns, thanks to Calvin Ridley being added to the wide receiver mix. He also should chip in with repeated success on the ground.
Other Options: C.J. Beathard, Nathan Rourke
— Running Backs —
Over the past three seasons, the Jaguars’ running backs have seen their yards per rush and yards per catch rise each year. A winning season and a new coaching staff led to 70 more rushing attempts than in 2021 but a minimal change in overall opportunity in the passing game. The latter was surprising, as I expected Travis Etienne to have a much better pass-catching opportunity. In the end, their running backs combined for 2,317 yards with 14 touchdowns and 64 catches or 22.34 FPPG in PPR formats.
Travis Etienne
After dominating in the run game for Clemson in 2018 (204/1,658/24) and 2019 (207/1,614/19) while averaging almost eight yards per carry, Etienne had a more challenging time finding open space at the second level of the defense in 2020 (168/914/14 – 5.4 yards per rush). He compensated for this shortfall by upping his value in the passing game (48/588/2). Over his final two years in college, he proved more than worthy as a pass-catcher (85/1,020/6).
Etienne played in a high-scoring offense in college, allowing him to make big plays up the middle or outside. His vision and feel for play development helped him find the needed space to beat weaker defenses for long touchdowns. Etienne offered a drop step in the open field that led to catching some defenders flat-footed, creating the space to finish runs on the outside with touchdowns. Defenders had a tough time bringing him down with arm and half-body tackles. When turning up field, his speed is almost deceiving, letting Etienne blow by tacklers who take poor angles.
His next step in his development will be proving his worth in pass protection and showing the ability to make the proper reads on blitzes. In 2020, Etienne had a four-game stretch with a fumble (three lost), but he only had four fumbles over his previous three seasons in college (five in 2022 with the Jaguars with three lost). His speed projects to be close to 4.40 in the 40-yard dash.
After sitting out his rookie season with a foot injury, Etienne gained 1,441 combined yards on 255 touches with five touchdowns and 35 catches. He gained 5.1 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per catch, thanks to 11 plays gaining 20 yards or more. In addition, Etienne passed the 40-yard mark on four occasions.
The Jaguars limited his chances over the first five weeks due to James Robinson out snapping him 175 to 159. Over this stretch, Robinson scored five times, while Etienne didn’t reach paydirt until his seventh game. He gained more than 100 yards from Week 7 to Week 9 (14/114/1, 24/156/1, and 28/109/2), but Etienne only had six combined catches for 51 yards over this span. After an early exit in Week 12 (2/3 on five snaps), Jacksonville gave him only 16.75 touches per game over his final eight starts (including the postseason), leading to 712 combined yards with two touchdowns and 17 catches.
Fantasy Outlook: Etienne ended the season ranked 17th in running back scoring (208.10) in PPR leagues, but he failed to be a difference-maker late in the year. In 2023, Etienne comes off the board as the 13th running back while needing to answer two questions about his ceiling. First, will Jacksonville give him more passing chances? And second, will the Jaguars give him more carries inside the 10-yard line (24 in 2022)? Also, incoming rookie RB Tank Bigsby could develop into a thorn at the goal line and steal some of Etienne’s chances in the run game. My early thought is 1,600 combined yards with about seven scores and 45 catches, making him a borderline top-12 back in PPR formats.
Tank Bigsby
Over his 35 games at Auburn, Bigsby rushed for 2,903 yards on 540 carries with 25 touchdowns. He added 62 catches for 448 yards on 89 targets. His best production came in 2021 (223/1,099/10 and 21 catches for 184 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: Bigsby has the talent to seize the Jaguars’ backup running back job, with a chance to get eight to 10 touches. Between James Robinson and JaMycal Hasty, they gained 703 yards with seven touchdowns and 32 catches. Bigsby ranks 50th at running back in the early high-stakes market. That gives him…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE JAGUARS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
