Trade Deadline Fantasy Impact

Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson

Normally the NFL trade deadline passes with little fanfare. That wasn’t the case in 2022. Several blockbuster deals happened. Let’s break down the trade deadline fantasy impact of each deal.

Also, don’t forget to check out our updated Week 9 fantasy football rankings.

 

T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota – The deal that got the wild day started was also the most surprising. After losing Irv Smith for likely the rest of the season, the Vikings sent a 2023 second and 2024 third-round pick to the Lions for the 25-year-old Hockenson. Detroit also tossed in a pair of fourth-rounders to make the deal work.

This appears to be a lateral move for Hockenson. While Minnesota is clearly a better landing spot, Detroit ranks 7th in passing versus 11th for the Vikings. At best, Hockenson remains third on the target pecking order. However, the volume could slip a bit but Hockenson remains a solid top-10 fantasy option.

Nyheim Hines to Buffalo –Hines was traded from the Indianapolis Colts to the Buffalo Bills for Zach Moss and a conditional sixth-round pick, per Tom Pelissero of NFL.com. Moss is signed through 2023, and Hines is under contract for two more seasons at base salaries of $4.45M in 2023 and $5.14M in 2024.

Immediate impact: Devin Singletary is the biggest loser of this trade. As Buffalo’s RB1. First, he was RB#28 on the year, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues with a 69.8% snap share. Most of his success in 2022 has been in the receiving game.

Secondly, Singletary has run 151 routes or 5th most at the running back position. He has had a 55.7% route participation, or 8th most, and he’s seen 12.4% target share, for 14th most at the running back position.

Finally, Singletary should be relegated to first and second downs with the occasional target and is immediately an RB3 moving forward.

Hines immediately steps into the receiving back role for the Bills. In 2021 he was the 12th most targeted
running back and in 2022, is the 16th most targeted back in 2022 despite missing week six and nearly all
of week 5 due to a concussion.

Also, Hines is a very productive pass catcher. Hine leads the league with an 89.3% catch rate. Also, he is 7th in yards per route run at 2.14, 17th in yards per reception at 7.5, and 11th in the league in receiving yards at the running back position.

Conversely, Hines should be considered a high-end RB3 moving forward with RB2 upside every week in one of the most electric offenses in football.

Deon Jackson is the biggest winner of this trade. With Jonathan Taylor banged up, Jackson may be
in for a large workload in week 9 and may carry weekly flex appeal moving forward.

In Taylor and Hines’s absence, Deon Jackson finished as the RB#1 in week six against Jacksonville, where he rushed
the ball 12 times for 42 yards and a score. Also, Jackson produced 10 receptions for 79 yards through the air for 28.1 PPR
points. Jackson is a weekly RB3 with RB1 upside. – Billy Muzio

Chase Edmonds to Denver – As part of an even bigger trade involving Bradley Chubb to Miamithe Broncos bolstered their backfield by acquiring Chase Edmonds from Miami. Edmonds joins an already crowded committee in Denver, which also stars Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray.

This move can only help Edmonds, who hasn’t topped double-digit touches since Week 1. Expect the Broncos to stick with a frustrating committee approach. However, Edmonds is a proven pass-catcher who has the chance to emerge as a decent flex option down the stretch. Also, Edmonds will have an extra week to acclimate himself to the offense and altitude. Overall, we consider this an upgrade to Edmonds’s sagging fantasy value.

Jeff Wilson to Miami –Wilson was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a 2023 5th-round pick, per Adam Schefter. The trade was a domino effect that fell into place 12 days after the San Francisco 49er’s traded away the kitchen sink for running back Christian McCaffrey and hours after the Dolphins traded a first-round pick and Chase
Edmonds to the Broncos for pass-rusher Bradley Chubb.

Immediate Impact: Jeff Wilson will join his old teammate Raheem Mostert and old offensive coordinator (now head coach) Mike McDaniel’s in Miami. Wilson filled in admirably during Elija Mitchell’s absence. He totaled 468
rushing yards, 91 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns during that span.

Wilson is a big-play threat. He is running back number 8 on the year in breakaway runs with 8 in total, RB#10 in breakaway rate at 8.7% and he’s averaging 5.5 yards per touch.

Wilson will most likely be a part of a two-man committee with Mostert moving forward, where both backs should see close to a 50/50 split. Both Wilson and Mostert will be RB3s moving forward with RB2 touchdown dependency upside. – Billy Muzio

Chase Claypool to Chicago- The Bears gave up a second-rounder for Claypool. This seems excessive considering how cheap it is to acquire veteran wideouts. Not to mention, Chicago ranks dead last in passing. Claypool might get a boost in target share as the unquestioned No. 2 but the quality of those looks is a different matter. Conversely, this is a downgrade for Claypool’s fantasy value but a big win for the Steelers’ rebuild process.

Zack Moss to Indianapolis – Moss was part of the deal that sent Hines to Buffalo. With the Bills, Moss’s playing time had disintegrated down to a 15% snap share for the season. Now buried behind Jonathan Taylor, Moss will vie for RB2 reps with Deon Jackson.

Calvin Ridley to Jacksonville –  The Jaguars have been looking to acquire an Alpha to pair with Christian Kirk. Mission accomplished. However, it won’t help the Jags in 2023. Ridley is serving a one-year suspension but should be back on the WR3 radar next spring. Considering the lack of volume in Atlanta’s offense, this might be a slight upgrade for Ridley’s fantasy value.

 


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About Jody Smith 228 Articles
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction.Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.