RB

Javonte Williams
Season Long – All Sports

Mid-Round Running Backs to Target

August 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value […]

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value or a player to avoid. Finding the right mid-round running backs to target on draft day is an important strategy.

And speaking of strategy, the FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive, league-winning tips and advice to help you DOMINATE YOUR LEAGUE! This includes our No.1 rankings, sleepers, fades, and much more!


Identifying Mid-Round Value

In the early draft season, there are too many values at different positions in fantasy football. This creates almost a false ADP for someone jumping into drafts in August. The flow of players in June and July, before the general public catches up with drafting inventory, is built on different buying opportunities.

As training camp news flows and players start getting positive reviews, the ADPs begin to change. This tightens up the player pool and makes it more challenging to execute an early draft plan. Once this happens, the better drafters will make tradeoffs at specific points. This is to secure the most critical players for their fantasy team.

This thought process brings me to the running back options after the first 17 or 18 backs come over the table. Typically, in the BestBall formats that I have been drafting, the running backs come off in this order midway through the fifth round:

Running Backs to Target

Behind each player’s name is a skill set and a story, requiring the casual drafter to understand before deciding who to select. These running back aren’t equal, and a couple will become difference-makers in 2023. Here’s my quick back story on each player.

Kenneth Walker – Excellent rookie season showcasing explosive runs and scoring. He struggled in pass protection, and Seattle brought in competition to play on passing downs. In addition, Walker had a slight groin issue in mid-August that is progressing.

Alexander Mattison – Tempting player based on him expected to start for a high-scoring offense and his success at times as a fill-in for Dalvin Cook. He gained 3.7 yards on his last 208 rushing attempts and 6.8 yards per catch over 47 receptions. With Cook in New York, Mattison has a higher chance of being a wasted pick in the fifth round than an impact player. If he struggles out the gate…

 

WHO ARE THE TOP MID-ROUND RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET ON YOUR DRAFT DAY?

 

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devon achane
Season Long – All Sports

Top Five Running Back Sleepers

August 9, 2023 Shawn Childs

Top Five Running Back Sleepers There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football. By […]

Top Five Running Back Sleepers

 

There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football.

By in large, top-tier running backs will accumulate the most points in fantasy lineups. That makes them an integral part of each and every lineup. Knowing which mid-to-late-round running back sleepers to target can make all the difference between a middling roster and a real championship contender.

Here are the Top Five Running Back Sleepers to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.

Breaking Down The Field

I researched the running back outcomes in 2022 to keep the same theme with the quarterback and wide receiver week-to-week data. Over 18 weeks, running backs scored 30 fantasy points or more in PPR formats in 26 games. Four of these scores reach the 40-point mark (Joe Mixon – 55.10, Alvin Kamara – 42.80, Christian McCaffrey – 40.60, and Josh Jacobs – 48.30). Austin Ekeler (4) and Josh Jacobs (4) posted the most impact games.

The top 12 running backs posted 17 of the 26 games with more than 30 fantasy points, compared to five by RB2s. Backs scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 107 times, with RB1s accounting for 51 of those showings. They finished with a 106:67 boom or bust ratio (15 fantasy points or more/fewer than 10.00 fantasy points). The second 12 running backs had a much weaker ratio (58:100).

Austin Ekeler scores 20 or more fantasy points in nine games, giving him a 52.9% win rate in his impact ratio. Christian McCaffrey (8) and Derrick Henry (8) finished tied for second in this area. 

The highest floor ratio (76.5) went to Christian McCaffery (13 games), followed by Austin Ekeler (12) and Saquan Barkley (12), then Derrick Henry (10) and Nick Chubb (10).

After Week 10, only three back scores ranking outside the top 38 scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game (Brian Robinson – 20.50, JaMycal Hasty – 20.50, and Zack Moss – 21.10). 

Here’s a look at the top 24 running backs from last season with their highlighted week-to-week scores…

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

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