Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

November 6, 2024 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 The fantasy playoff stretch drive starts with an excellent AFC North battle. This rematch of a Week 5 shootout won by the Baltimore Ravens 41-38 over the Cincinnati Bengals should be one of the […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10

The fantasy playoff stretch drive starts with an excellent AFC North battle. This rematch of a Week 5 shootout won by the Baltimore Ravens 41-38 over the Cincinnati Bengals should be one of the NFL’s games of the month. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 10 breaks down the game from a fantasy and sports betting perspective.

At 4-5 with a loss to the Ravens already in the books, this is a crucial game for the Bengals’ playoff odds. And after losing five of their last six against Baltimore, the pressure is on for Zac Taylor’s bunch.

Meanwhile, the Ravens boast the league’s top offense. John Harbaugh’s team added reinforcements at the trade deadline and has had Cincinnati’s number of late.

Baltimore opened as 3-point favorites but that line quickly doubled. Meanwhile, the total, which opened at 47, has shot up to a Week 10-high 53 points.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals	17	5	26	14	6
Baltimore Ravens	1	2	1	1	1

Last week’s Jets/Texans game was a snoozer. However, this game has some potential. Both squads rank inside the top 6 in scoring. And the first meeting between these rivals resulted in 962 combined yards and 53 first downs. Inject it into our veins!

The Bengals are a pass-first team led by Joe Burrow, who ranks third in fantasy points and is tied for second in the league with 20 touchdown passes. However, Cincinnati ranks 26th in rushing and is better at defending the run than the pass.

But the Ravens have the best offense in the NFL, ranking first in rushing and second in passing. That makes Baltimore’s balance problematic for the Bengals and every opponent.

Cincinnati Offense…

How will Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens game go?

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Week 6 NFL Player Props

October 11, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 6 NFL Player Props For the fourth time in five weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were one Terry McLaurin dropped pass from a 6-1 slate but we’ll have to suffice for a 5-2 record in […]

Week 6 NFL Player Props

For the fourth time in five weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were one Terry McLaurin dropped pass from a 6-1 slate but we’ll have to suffice for a 5-2 record in Week 5. Still, due to our triple-unit bet on Jayden Reed, we had a massive +3.8-Unit week and are now +7.0 units and 21-13 on the season as we gear up for Week 6 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 6 NFL Player Props!

Jayden Daniels OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)

This game boasts a 51.5-point total, the second-highest on the slate. The Commanders’ rookie QB is off to a scorching start, and the numbers back it up. The Ravens have been giving up an NFL-worst 304 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Daniels has exceeded expectations four games in a row with 226, 254, 233, and 238 yards against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns, respectively.

Jayden Daniels will finish what we started and be the Franchise QB the city deserves. @JayD__5 🫡 pic.twitter.com/p69G0xUadX

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) October 10, 2024

Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been dialing up game plans that make life as smooth as possible for Daniels, and there’s no reason to think that will change in this matchup. Expect the rookie to stay hot and capitalize on a vulnerable Ravens defense! Baltimore put up a massive 41 points in Week 5 so expect Daniels to air it out in an attempt to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company. I may even sprinkle an extra unit on this wager as I expect Baltimore to shut down the run but struggle in the secondary.

Jordan Love…

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Week 5 NFL Player Props

October 4, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we […]

Week 5 NFL Player Props

Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we can get back in the winning column with our Week 5 NFL Player Props. We are now 16-11 in the young season.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props!

Jordan Love OVER 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams’ defense has struggled across the board, but their pass defense is especially concerning. They’ve allowed the most yards per completion (12.6) and air yards per attempt (10.3) in the league, and now they face Jordan Love, who ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in average depth of target.

After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Love returned last Sunday, shaking off a slow first half to rack up 389 passing yards by the end of the game—following up his 260-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 1. Love and the Packers are primed for another big outing, and they get a bonus boost from the Rams’ defensive scheme. According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams run zone defense at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap when in zone.

Green Bay excels against zone defenses, and their wide receivers—Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs—are thriving. All three are in the Top 25 in yards per catch vs. zone and in the Top 30 in yards per route run against zone coverage, making them a dangerous trio for this matchup.

The only real threat to this passing total is if the Packers open up a huge lead and go run-heavy, but with their defense also struggling, this game could stay competitive enough for Love to keep airing it out all four quarters…

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Week 4 NFL Player Props

September 26, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 4 NFL Player Props Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to […]

Week 4 NFL Player Props

Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to a double-unit bet on Jauan Jennings after a pivot from George Kittle (who was a surprise inactive on Sunday). On the season, we are now 14-6 (70% conversion rate) and +8.9 Units! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 4 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets! Like last week, I’ll be featuring one Thursday Night Football wager since our Week 3 TNF Anytime Touchdown bet cashed!

Lamar Jackson OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Coming off a heavy workload, Derrick Henry may take a bit of a backseat this week, with Lamar Jackson poised to steal the spotlight—just like we saw in Baltimore’s season opener. And given the context of this matchup, it makes sense. The Bills’ front seven has shown some vulnerability, especially when it comes to stopping the run, despite their impressive 3rd-place rank in Run Defense Win Rate. A closer look reveals they sit at a lowly 26th in PFF’s Run Defense Grade, signaling potential cracks in their armor.

Lamar has cleared this line in two of three games this season. The two times he did it, he decimated the line with 122 rushing yards in Week 1 and 87 rushing yards in Week 3. He’s averaging 84.6 rushing yards per game through three weeks of the season and is going to need to use his legs to keep the chains moving.

#Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is rushing at a RECORD PACE after three games⚡️

Jackson could shatter his record if he keeps it up📈#RavensFlock #NFL pic.twitter.com/UUe3jsom4q

— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) September 25, 2024

What makes this matchup even more intriguing is Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Their tendency to anchor linebackers in coverage while relying heavily on just their front four to generate pressure leaves them exposed, especially against mobile quarterbacks like Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line, which ranks above league average in both Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, is well-positioned to keep Buffalo’s pressure at bay. With minimal resistance up front, Lamar Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of open rushing lanes…

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1

September 4, 2024 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 What a way to kick off a new season! After seven months, a rematch of last year’s AFC title game opens the 2024 season. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1

What a way to kick off a new season! After seven months, a rematch of last year’s AFC title game opens the 2024 season. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the season opener.

Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs were able to squeeze by the Ravens with a 45-yard field goal with three seconds left. That set up the club to win their second consecutive title. However, winning a third gets off to an ominous start against that same Baltimore team thirsting for revenge.

The Ravens enter the 2024 season with the third-highest Super Bowl odds. Only the 49ers and these Chiefs rank higher. These teams are familiar with one another and match up well. But if the Ravens want to prove they can make it back to the big game, they must find a way to win at Arrowhead.

Vegas sees these two teams as evenly matched. The Ravens are the standard three-point underdogs on the road. Additionally, the total of the game has risen to 47.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Baltimore Ravens	6	21	1	4	4
Kansas City Chiefs	9	6	19	9	15

These teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides of the ball. While Baltimore employs a run-first approach, the Chiefs will attack through the air.

On the other side of the ball, these two teams allowed the fewest points in the NFL in 2023. Baltimore ranked sixth overall and led the NLF with 31 turnovers. Conversely, Kansas City surrendered the second-fewest points and ranked fourth versus the pass.

For Baltimore, sticking with their strength should be the game plan. Instead of attacking through the air, the Ravens will attempt to slow down the pace and stick to what they do best. Run the ball.

There are lots of new elements to Kansas City’s offense. Expect Reid to take plenty of downfield shots. However, Baltimore’s secondary is stacked and received reinforcement in the first round with CB Nate Wiggins.

Baltimore Offense

How will Thursday’s Ravens vs. Chiefs game go?

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2024 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview

July 10, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview Baltimore finished sixth in offense and defense in 2023, but another disappointing playoff loss saw the top-seeded Ravens ousted in the AFC Championship. Even after leading the league in rushing, there will be wholesale changes […]

2024 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview

Baltimore finished sixth in offense and defense in 2023, but another disappointing playoff loss saw the top-seeded Ravens ousted in the AFC Championship. Even after leading the league in rushing, there will be wholesale changes to Baltimore’s offense in 2024.

QB Lamar Jackson’s first season in Todd Monken’s offense was a success. Jackson completed a career-best 67.2% of his attempts and set a personal best with 3,678 passing yards. On a per-game basis, Jackson rushed less than he was accustomed to but still led the position with 821 yards on the ground.

In all, Jackson finished fourth in fantasy scoring despite being the centerpiece of a run-first offense. The Ravens have only produced one 1000-yard wide receiver during Jackson’s tenure. Finding weapons to restore balance to Baltimore’s attack would go a long way.

Second-year WR Zay Flowers is the logical choice to join Marquise Brown as Jackson’s next 1000-yard wideout. Flowers led the Ravens in targets (108), catches (77), and yards (858) during his rookie campaign. Flowers began to assert himself as a legit No. 1 receiver during the playoff drive. He is a strong breakout candidate with top-20 upside.

After Flowers, things are more uncertain. Rashod Bateman is a candidate to see an increased role, but Bateman hasn’t been able to stay healthy or live up to his first-round billing. The Ravens also added Devontez Walker from North Carolina with a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Walker boasts 4.36 speed and will compete with Bateman and Nelson Agholor for WR3 snaps.

TE Mark Andrews remains the best bet to lead the club in targets and touchdown grabs. Andrews ranked fifth in PPR points per game but missed nearly half the campaign with an ankle injury. An Andrews/Jackson stack is among the top contrarian builds to exit your draft with.

Third-year TE Isiah Likely faired well when Andrews was sidelined. Given Baltimore’s lack of depth in the receiving corps, expecting Monken to utilize 12 sets more often than last year’s 11.1% (27th in the league) seems like a good bet.

When the NFL’s top-ranked rushing attack adds a stud fantasy option like Derrick Henry, fantasy managers should take notice. Henry is showing signs of slowing down. However, he is an elite touchdown scorer and a strong bet to lead the league in that category in 2024. He won’t catch a ton of passes in this offense, but Henry looks like a good bet for 1,200 rushing yards and 12-14 scores.

The Ravens will remain a run-heavy offense that features a potential top-10 player at three positions and a sophomore wideout that could break out in a big way.

Quarterbacks

QB LAMAR JACKSON – STUD (LOW RISK)

Year One in Todd Monken’s offense resulted in the finest passing season of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson set career-best numbers in attempts (457), completions (307), completion rate (67.2%), and yards (3,678). He also remained one of the position’s most potent rushing threats, leading all quarterbacks with 821 yards and an additional five scores on the ground. Baltimore doesn’t have the deepest receiving corps, but the addition of RB Derrick Henry will further help open things up downfield for a Ravens offense that led the league in rushing last season and ranked fourth in points. Since entering the league, Jackson’s rushing production has given him a safe floor behind an elite offensive line. ADVICE: Elite starter with top-3 upside…

[…]

Week 17 Quarterback Report

December 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed […]

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report

Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed by Josh Allen (28.35), Jalen Hurts (27.45), and Justin Fields (27.20). Twelve other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 26.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 16 weeks by scoring average:

Josh Allen (26.95)
Jalen Hurts (26.09)
Dak Prescott (23.03)
Lamar Jackson (22.76)
Brock Purdy (22.11)

Using our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Over the past six weeks, Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in five starts. He held value by his success in the run game (59/260/8). His completion rate (60.3%) over this span is well below his first nine games (68.9%). Despite his direction, Hurts has already set career highs in completions (327), passing attempts (499), and combined touchdowns (35). When at his best, he scored more than 30 fantasy points in three matchups (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50).

The Cardinals rank 25th in quarterback defense (21.94). Only the Giants (380/3) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Rams (229/4) and 49ers (262/4) delivered the most success in touchdowns over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks rushed for 285 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries. Five offenses rushed for more than 175 yards.

The Eagles played better offensively in Week 16 (471 combined yards with three touchdowns, four field goals, and 33 points), pointing to success in scoring this week. I sense I have Hurts under-projected this week as he looks poised to have a 4X floor in this upside matchup...

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Week 14 Quarterback Report

December 7, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

Josh Allen (27.91)
Jalen Hurts (27.23)
Dak Prescott (24.43)
C.J. Stroud (23.62)
Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills.

Buffalo showed more risk

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

November 15, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the Bengals versus Ravens slugfest.

The road through the AFC playoffs currently goes through Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s Ravens boast an AFC-best 7-3 mark and will be amped to right the ship after a last-second loss to Cleveland in Week 10. Baltimore’s +113 point differential is the best in the league and the club is preparing for this game as if it were a postseason contest.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off of an emotional home loss to a Texans team that Baltimore easily handled in Week 1. The Bengals got off to a rough start thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. But Zac Taylor’s had won four straight before Week 10. One of Cincinnati’s losses came to Baltimore, so the Bengals will be extra motivated to even the score.

Baltimore opened as a slight favorite. However, the line has shifted to the Bengals currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs. And the opening total of the game was 43.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals	27	16	32	23	20
Baltimore Ravens	4	20	1	5	5

It is quite unusual to see the Bengals sporting a bottom-tier offense. But most of those struggles can be attributed to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf strain. The Bengals scored one of zero touchdowns in three of their first four games- the main culprit in that 1-3 start.

However, things have drastically turned around since that 34-20 drubbing of the Cardinals. Burrow has been the fantasy QB4 over the last four games. Also, the running game has struggled all season. Cincinnati is running for an NFL-worst 74.8 yards per game. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Thursday.

While the Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offense, their performance has fallen flat. Todd Monken’s high-octane passing attack hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, Baltimore is back to being an old-school Ravens’ offense that leads the league in rushing.

Also, Baltimore’s defense ranks fourth overall while leading the league in fewest points allowed. The Ravens have won four of their last five when hosting the Bengals. Another victory would seriously hamper Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Finally, weather shouldn’t be a factor. Gametime temperatures are projected to be 52 degrees with less than a 10% chance of showers.

Cincinnati Offense

Cincinnati’s passing game has improved at the same rate as Joe Burrow‘s recovery…

How will Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens game go?

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Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

Josh Allen (183.85)
Jalen Hurts (180.45)
Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
Lamar Jackson (170.80)
Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

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