Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 17 Quarterback Report

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed […]

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report

Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed by Josh Allen (28.35), Jalen Hurts (27.45), and Justin Fields (27.20). Twelve other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 26.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 16 weeks by scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (26.95)
  • Jalen Hurts (26.09)
  • Dak Prescott (23.03)
  • Lamar Jackson (22.76)
  • Brock Purdy (22.11)

Using our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Over the past six weeks, Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in five starts. He held value by his success in the run game (59/260/8). His completion rate (60.3%) over this span is well below his first nine games (68.9%). Despite his direction, Hurts has already set career highs in completions (327), passing attempts (499), and combined touchdowns (35). When at his best, he scored more than 30 fantasy points in three matchups (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50).

The Cardinals rank 25th in quarterback defense (21.94). Only the Giants (380/3) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Rams (229/4) and 49ers (262/4) delivered the most success in touchdowns over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks rushed for 285 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries. Five offenses rushed for more than 175 yards.

The Eagles played better offensively in Week 16 (471 combined yards with three touchdowns, four field goals, and 33 points), pointing to success in scoring this week. I sense I have Hurts under-projected this week as he looks poised to have a 4X floor in this upside matchup...

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DFS

Week 14 Quarterback Report

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.91)
  • Jalen Hurts (27.23)
  • Dak Prescott (24.43)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.62)
  • Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills. 

Buffalo showed more risk

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Joe Burow
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the Bengals versus Ravens slugfest.

The road through the AFC playoffs currently goes through Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s Ravens boast an AFC-best 7-3 mark and will be amped to right the ship after a last-second loss to Cleveland in Week 10. Baltimore’s +113 point differential is the best in the league and the club is preparing for this game as if it were a postseason contest.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off of an emotional home loss to a Texans team that Baltimore easily handled in Week 1. The Bengals got off to a rough start thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. But Zac Taylor’s had won four straight before Week 10. One of Cincinnati’s losses came to Baltimore, so the Bengals will be extra motivated to even the score.

Baltimore opened as a slight favorite. However, the line has shifted to the Bengals currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs. And the opening total of the game was 43.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals 27 16 32 23 20
Baltimore Ravens 4 20 1 5 5

It is quite unusual to see the Bengals sporting a bottom-tier offense. But most of those struggles can be attributed to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf strain. The Bengals scored one of zero touchdowns in three of their first four games- the main culprit in that 1-3 start.

However, things have drastically turned around since that 34-20 drubbing of the Cardinals. Burrow has been the fantasy QB4 over the last four games. Also, the running game has struggled all season. Cincinnati is running for an NFL-worst 74.8 yards per game. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Thursday.

While the Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offense, their performance has fallen flat. Todd Monken’s high-octane passing attack hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, Baltimore is back to being an old-school Ravens’ offense that leads the league in rushing.

Also, Baltimore’s defense ranks fourth overall while leading the league in fewest points allowed. The Ravens have won four of their last five when hosting the Bengals. Another victory would seriously hamper Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Finally, weather shouldn’t be a factor. Gametime temperatures are projected to be 52 degrees with less than a 10% chance of showers.

Cincinnati Offense 

Cincinnati’s passing game has improved at the same rate as Joe Burrow‘s recovery…

How will Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens game go?

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Lamar Jackson
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
  • Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
  • Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

  • Josh Allen (183.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (180.45)
  • Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
  • Lamar Jackson (170.80)
  • Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

 

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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Lamar Jackson
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Baltimore Ravens Outlook

2023  Baltimore Ravens Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023  Baltimore Ravens Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Baltimore Ravens Outlook.

— Offense —

The foundation of the Ravens’ game plan and attack remains the same. They want to run the ball as much as possible while playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore ran the ball 51.9% of the time in 2022 while averaging 30.9 carries per game. They finished 22nd in combined yards. In 2022, their passing game showed more promise (4,267 yards). This may be a hint of more passes this season, helped by the additions at wide receiver in the offseason.

— Quarterback —

Lamar Jackson

After gaining over 1,000 yards rushing in 2019 (1,206) and 2020 (1,005) with an edge in rushing touchdowns (14), Jackson missed five games in back-to-back years. He was on pace for 1,087 and 1,082 rushing yards if he played 17 games in 2021 and 2022. In his career, Jackson has averaged 63 rushing yards over 70 contests. 

His peak total in pass attempts (401 – 26.7 per game) came in 2019 over 15 starts. In 2021, he was on pace to throw 541 passes (31.8 per game). Jackson struggled to deliver rushing touchdowns in 2021 (2) and 2022 (3). That lowered his ceiling in fantasy points. He only needs 1,673 more rushing yards to pass Michael Vick (6,109 – 143 games) for the most in NFL history. 

Jackson busted out of the gate over the first three weeks last season with 992 combined yards (749/10 passing) with a dozen scores. Over his next eight complete games, he averaged only 185 passing yards on 29.3 attempts. That’s a modest 6.3 yards per attempt figure. Jackson also scored only once on the ground over this span.

Fantasy Outlook: Jackson’s success and fantasy value start with impact yards on the ground. He must regain his lost momentum in rushing touchdowns to push higher in the quarterback rankings. The Ravens look to have the most receiving depth since Jackson arrived on the scene, pointing to a career-high in his passing output. He ranks sixth at quarterback in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. His ceiling looks to be 4,500 combined yards with 35 scores. And I view Jackson as reasonably priced. My only advice is to add a second quarterback of value to protect against a season-ending knee injury. 

Other Options: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Brown, Nolan Henderson

— Running Backs —

The Ravens’ running backs remain active in touchdowns over the past three seasons (16, 16, and 15). They continue to have a low ranking in the receiving categories, highlighted by their receiving yards (267 – 31st) and yards per catch (5.5 – 31st). Last year, their backs averaged 20.48 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Lamar Jackson steals many chances in the run game, and his pass attempts tend to be low in most matchups. This creates a lower ceiling for the Ravens’ running backs.

J.K. Dobbins

Baltimore stole Dobbins in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dobbins brings a fighter’s mentality to the ground game with strength in his runs. He aims to drive the ball forward with quickness and vision, with against-the-grain cuts. He’ll take a hit and lose his balance, but Dobbins finds a way to stay upright on many plays while offering a stiff arm.

While playing in a great system at Ohio State, Dobbins looked elite in his freshman year (1,538 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 22 catches on 216 touches), seeing about 55% of the running back opportunity. His game regressed in 2018 (1,316 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 26 catches) due to Mike Weber (172/954/5) outplaying Dobbins on many days. In 2019, Dobbins regained his bounce in his step, which led to a high volume opportunity (301/2,003/21 plus 23 catches for 247 yards and two touchdowns).

Over the first six games in 2020, Dobbins only averaged six touches per game. This resulted in 228 combined yards and two touchdowns and 11 catches. His opportunity became fantasy relevant over the Ravens’ final 11 matchups (827 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 11 catches), resulting in 12.88 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His highlight game came in Week 17 (13/160/2).

In 2021, Dobbins suffered a torn ACL in his left knee before the start of the year, leading to a lost season. He didn’t look healthy last year, resulting in eight more missed starts (a clean-up knee surgery midseason) over the first 12 games (35/123/1 with six catches for 39 yards and one score). Dobbins ran the ball much better over his final five contests (70/459/1 – 6.6 yards per rush) while picking up five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown.

Fantasy Outlook: With an entire offseason to get his knee in shape and work on his strength, Dobbins should be ready to rock and roll in Week 1. He won’t make much impact in the passing game, and Baltimore will rotate in a second runner on early downs. Dobbins also takes a hit from Lamar Jackson sniping goal-line carries and scores. I see about 250 touches for 1,300 yards, double-digit scoring, and 25 catches. At best, a mid-tier RB2 in PPR formats with a limited ceiling and outcome of impact games. 

Gus Edwards

In his four seasons with the Ravens, Edwards gained at least 5.0 yards per rush every year (5.2, 5.3, 5.0, and 5.0). He has limited value in the passing game (18/194 – no catches in 2022), but his play in this area flashed more explosiveness in 2020 (9/129 – three catches over 20 yards) while finishing with 852 combined yards with six scores and nine catches on 144 carries). Baltimore gave him more than 10 touches in six of his 18 games (including playoffs).

Edwards also blew out his left knee before Week 1 in 2021, leading to no touches. His slow recovery led to him missing the first six games last season. After two helpful games (16/66/2 and 11/65), Edwards was back on the sidelines for the following three weeks with a hamstring issue. Over his final seven appearances, he gained 354 combined yards with one touchdown and one catch.

Fantasy Outlook: Edwards posted a floor of 700 rushing yards in his first three years with the Ravens. He plays with power while offering a closing mentality when Baltimore plays from the lead. Edwards should be back to full strength at the start of the year while resuming his RB2 role for Baltimore. I expect him

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAVENS IN 2023?

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