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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

October 25, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 15 29 22 26
Buffalo Bills 5 6 14 4 3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense 

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…

How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?

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Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
Season Long – All Sports

Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 7

October 25, 2023 Scott Atkins

Snap counts tell us who is playing but they don’t always paint a clear picture of who is producing for our fantasy football lineups. By digging deep into FullTime Fantasy‘s Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 7, we are able […]

NFL Snap Counts Frequently Asked Questions

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

 

What are NFL snap counts?

Snap counts represent the total number of offensive plays a player participated in during a given week.

Why should I care about NFL snap counts?

The number of times a player is on the field for a player can be incredibly useful. It helps track usage, and how players are used and provide fantasy football managers with the ability to look beyond the usual on-field production by adding context to those more traditional statistics.

How are your NFL snap-count numbers compiled?

NFL snap counts are tracked by the NFL Game Statistics and Information System (GSIS). For the last two years, each player has had a chip inserted in his shoulder pads so that radio transmitters in stadiums can track his every move on the field. This is how the GSIS compiles snap counts (and other on-field information).

How can I use NFL snap counts to leverage my success in fantasy football?

Understanding playing time can be a key factor in setting your weekly lineup. In particular, understanding and identifying trends that might give you an early jump on acquiring free agents or making trades for players who might quietly be gaining playing time.

What are the possible drawbacks to using NFL snap counts as part of my fantasy football lineup strategy?

As FantasyPros recently noted, studying snap counts and the percentage of snaps played is one of the easiest ways that we can determine one of the most basic, but important questions for potential fantasy success: Is this player even on the field often enough to make a difference? That said, NFL snap counts only outline playing time, and being on the field is only the first step to fantasy relevance. It’s not the only step. Don’t emphasize snap counts over production.

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

SNAPS Total offensive snaps played by player.
SNAP % Percentage of offensive snaps played.
RUSH % Percentage of snaps played where player had a rushing attempt.
TGT % Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.
TOUCH % Percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions).
FPTS Fantasy points scored by player.
PTS/100 SNAPS Average fantasy points scored by player per 100 snaps

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Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

October 23, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week 8, so scoring should improve. The playoff drive starts Thursday. Let’s see what FullTime‘s Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 additions we can target to improve our postseason odds.

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

 

Josh Downs (WR) Indianapolis Cotls (25% FAAB) – Over his last three games, Downs has out-scored Michael Pittman. Downs has developed a solid rapport with Garnder Minshew. However, Downs has been producing all season. He’s played 75.8% of Indianapolis’s snaps and boats a 20.1% target rate. Downs is now WR25 for the season but is still widely available on waiver wires. Prepare to bid high. Also, keep Alec Pierce (1% FAAB) in mind as a low-price option.

Darrell Henderson (RB) Los Angeles Rams (20 % FAAB) – Welcome back to the league, Hendo! Days after being signed as a free agent, Henderson re-debuted with the Rams and led the backfield in Week 7. Henderson played 57% of LA’s snaps and out-touched Royce Freeman (7% FAAB) 19-12. Kyren Williams went to IR last week. Subsequently, Henderson has RB2/3 upside for the next three games. Or as long as he can hold onto the nominal starting gig.

Chuba Hubbard (RB) Carolina Panthers (15% FAAB) – Hubbard was one of my top adds last week. However, with Carolina on bye, he may have slipped through the cracks. Miles Sanders was already losing snaps to Hubbard. Also, Sanders missed Week 6 with a shoulder injury. Sanders has underperformed in 2023 and was already losing…

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 7 NFL Player Props

October 21, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 7 NFL Player Props Week 6 was another profitable week for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. Including the bonus Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown wager I recommended. We went 5-3 and profited 2.7 units after doubling down on Mostert’s rushing […]

Week 7 NFL Player Props

Week 6 was another profitable week for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. Including the bonus Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown wager I recommended. We went 5-3 and profited 2.7 units after doubling down on Mostert’s rushing yard prop. We are now 21-15 (+7.8 units) on the season.

Lamar Jackson surpassed his line by a single yard on Sunday morning and T.J. Hockenson just managed to haul in the six receptions he needed to hit his prop. That said, Mostert and Cooper Kupp shredded their lines as anticipated. Gardner Minshew threw for a ton of yards due to gamescript which I did not anticipate and D.J. Moore missed his line by a meager nine yards, in large part due to Justin Fields exiting the game with a dislocated thumb.

Unfortunately, the week could have been even better if Tony Pollard had done what he should have against a susceptible Los Angeles Chargers defense. Nonetheless, a profitable week is still money in the bank. Let’s continue to build up that bankroll heading into Week 7.

Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below.

Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 7 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.

Josh Allen UNDER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Surprisingly, Allen has hit his rushing yard prop line just once this entire season. I don’t anticipate that trend changing this week in a game in which the Bills are heavy favorites. On the season (outside of quarterback sneaks), the Bills have only called two designed quarterback runs for Allen. Allen has only rushed the ball more than four times once this entire season back in Week 1. Given the fact that Allen is dealing with a shoulder injury and that the Bills are expected to easily dispatch the New England Patriots, I anticipate the Bills doing everything in their power to prevent an aggravation to Allen’s current injury. He’s not going to run unless he has to. Take the under.

 

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Cooper Kupp - PreSeason Pro
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning […]

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning ticket on DraftKings three times over the first six games while also being viable in Week 5 (8/181/1). Adam Thielen came into last week with three consecutive visits to the daily winner circle (11/145/1, 7/76, and 11/107/1) in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, followed by another winnable day (11/115/1).

Unfortunately, he finished second through 10th in the final standings in the Week 6 Millionaire Maker. Cooper Kupp flashed in his first game back in action in Week 5 (8/112), upping that total last week (7/148/1). Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/124/1) was the best wideout in Week 6, helping a wise team builder win $1,000,000. Only four other wide receivers scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 6.

Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers by scoring average after six games:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.80)
  • Keenan Allen (24.99)
  • Stefon Diggs (23.33)
  • Justin Jefferson (22.02)
  • Adam Thielen (21.08)

Ja’Marr Chase (20.63), Puka Nacua (20.37), A.J. Brown (20.20), and D.J. Moore (20.03) are also averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points for the season. Cooper Kupp (23.80) also posted top-five wide receiver stats over his first two starts.

Also, before we get into the Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,700)

The daily games did their best to box DFS players from using Kupp in Week 7. His salary commands 38.00 fantasy points to pay off in DraftKings scoring, a game total he never reached in his epic 2021 season (37.30, 34.00, 37.60, and 34.70 fantasy points in his best four games). Last year, his best two outcomes in fantasy points came in Week 1 (31.80) and Week 2 (32.80). Each roster slot in a DFS lineup has a max value, so a 30+ fantasy game still creates an edge if the other outs a position don’t fix in the lineup box. Kupp was on the field for every play in Week 6.

The Steelers come into Week 7 sitting 29th in wide receiver defense (74/1024/6) with one disaster showing (23/290/2) against the Raiders and Davante Adams (13/172/2). Nico Collins (7/168/2) also posted an impact game. So far this season, Kupp has lined up in the slot for more than half of his plays, inviting a very winnable matchup vs. any Pittsburgh option in coverage. CB Patrick Peterson (16/238/4 on 28 targets per PFF) allowed big plays (14.9 yards per catch) and touchdowns (4). He can’t handle Kupp with one-on-one coverage.

Kupp has an elite floor, and the Rams’ offense has already produced many high-ranking games at running back and wide receiver over the first six weeks. The first stop in team building on Sunday starts with Kupp as 100 receiving yards and at least one score is a likely outcome. Ultimately, it’s about fitting the complementary piece behind him in a daily lineup.

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,000)

Diggs gained more than 100 yards receiving in four consecutive games (8/111, 6/120/3, 8/121/1, and 10/100) while also posting a top-tier showing in Week 1 (10/102/1). On the year, he averages 11 targets per game, putting him on pace to catch 138 passes for 1,757 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 targets (all career-highs). He played well in both games (7/92/1 and 7/104/1) vs. New England last season. In 2020, Diggs had one of the better weeks (9/145/3) of his career on the road against the Patriots. 

New England is 14th vs. wide receivers (74/864/10 on 110 targets) while playing A.J. Brown (7/79), DeVonta Smith (7/47/1), Tyreek Hill (5/40/1), Garrett Wilson (5/48), CeeDee Lamb (4/36/1), Chris Olave 92/12/1), and Davante Adams (2/29). CB J.C. Jackson blew coverage in Week 1 (3/99/1 on eight targets) vs. Tyreek Hill, something many other cornerbacks have done in 2023. He fell out of favor with the Chargers’ coaching staff, leading to the Patriots picking him up. Over his first two games with New England, he allowed three catches for 21 yards on 10 targets. His success with the Patriots earned him a massive payday from the Chargers.

The Bills need a statement game after losing to the Jaguars in London and lacking an offensive pulse vs. the low-ranking New York Giants defense. His resume with the Bills has been a high floor player (23 games over 55 starts with more than 20.00 fantasy points) while offering the occasional impact game (41.50, 30.20, 44.80, 30.80, and 36.00 fantasy points). Josh Allen looks for him often, but the percentages suggest Diggs…

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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