2025 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview
Mike Tomlin has famously never had a losing season in his coaching career. Tomlin excels at getting the most out of his roster. For the 2025 Steelers to keep that impressive streak going, Tomlin will once again have to coach up a roster that enters the season with a modest 8.5-win projection in Vegas.
Last season, Pittsburgh ranked 23rd in total offense, dipping to 27th in passing with just 192 yards per game. Russell Wilson had one game with more than 280 yards and four with fewer than 200. Change was needed, and Wilson was allowed to walk.
By missing out on the free agents and bypassing the position early in the draft, the Steelers are going all in with Aaron Rodgers. Even at 41, Rodgers seems like an upgrade, but his touchdowns, completion rate, yards per attempt, and ADOT have all been trending down for four years. Telltale signs of a declining asset. Additionally, the pretentious attitude and off-field behavior are potential trouble in a locker room filled with big personalities.
Other options under center include Mason Rudolph and 6th-round Ohio State rookie Will Howard. Both would be downgrades over Rodgers and would further complicate an offense that ranked 23rd in passing last year.
Najee Harris signed with the Chargers. resulting in the Steelers adding Iowa State RB Kaleb Johnson in Round 3. Johnson (6-1, 224) has power, elite ball security, and ranked 2nd in the nation in breakaway yards. Johnson projects as a terrific power back, allowing Pittsburgh’s tandem with Jaylen Warren to continue. Warren is a better receiver and gets enough touches to warrant RB3/4 consideration.
With questions at quarterback, relying on the Steelers’ pass-catchers has risk. The team traded for DK Metcalf, who wanted out of Seattle. Metcalf is a legit alpha No. 1 receiver, but his presence will take away targets from George Pickens. Pickens has already raised concerns about his target share. Both wideouts are talented, with plenty of fantasy appeal. But it’s a potentially volatile situation that fantasy managers must consider before using early draft capital.
Pat Freiermuth has his best season, averaging 10. 1 fantasy points per contest. He ranked 6th with 54.9 expected points added and 7th with 2.16 fantasy points per target. However, the looming QB change makes repeating those numbers unlikely. Freiermuth projects to be more of a high-end TE2 than a top 10 option.
Fantasy Grade: D
The Jets elected to move on from Rodgers, who is expected to sign with the Steelers this summer. At this point in his career, Rodgers doesn’t want to participate in offseason activities, so the Steelers patiently wait. It’s hard to root for Rodgers off the field, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to rely on him for fantasy. Now 42, Rodgers’ QB Rating, ADOT, and adjusted completion rate have all been in decline for the past four years. The Steelers also don’t have much pass-catching depth. At best, Rodgers is a meh QB2 at this point.
As expected, Pittsburgh signed Aaron Rodgers. That would put Rudolph in line to be the backup. At this stage, he’s more of a bridge quarterback, but Rudolph tossed nine touchdowns in six starts for Tennessee last year. He only has modest Superflex value if Father Time catches up to Rodgers.
In 2024, the Pittsburgh running backs averaged 4.0 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns, despite ranking fifth in attempts (428). Kaleb Johnson, a 6-1, 225-pound power runner who rebounded from a 2023 injury to record 240 carries for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2024, plus 22 catches for 188 yards and two scores. His 4.57 40-yard dash caps his breakaway speed, but his vision and patience excel in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Johnson looks like an upgrade over Najee Harris and should see a similar role, splitting reps with Jaylen Warren.
The fantasy community was ready to see Jaylen Warren as Pittsburgh’s primary running back after Najee Harris signed with the Chargers. However, the Steelers selected Kaleb Johnson in the 3rd round. Johnson is an intriguing three-down back and will likely take over Harris’s touches. That keeps Warren in his change-of-pace role. It’s still a quality role- Warren ranked 9th with 4.17 yards created per touch and 6th with 2.50 yards per route run. He’s a good receiver and quality change-of-pace option, but Warren’s lack of touchdown prowess (six scores in three seasons) caps his upside.
After six seasons in Seattle, DK Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh, where he steps in as the Steelers’ new top wideout. A model of durability—having missed only three games in his career—Metcalf has consistently produced but hasn’t fully met elite fantasy expectations. Since entering the league, he leads all receivers with 96 end-zone targets, yet has just one top-20 fantasy finish (WR10 in 2020). He wrapped up 2024 as the WR32 overall, logging 992 yards and a career-low five touchdowns in 15 games. He was a top-5 WR in targets and air yards before a Week 7 knee injury. Now, in Arthur Smith’s run-first scheme, his fantasy value will depend on red-zone volume and explosive plays.
WR Austin III, Calvin, PIT [WR2]
ADVICE: The trade of George Pickens could free up more targets for Austin, who will compete with Robert Woods for WR2/3 duties in Pittsburgh. Austin has 99th-percentile speed but struggles versus man. He could develop into a big-play option for Aaron Rodgers.
Should see plenty of snaps but has no upside.
Freiermuth had his best fantasy season in 2024 thanks to his red-zone prowess. He ranked 10th with 14 red-zone targets and tied for 4th with a healthy seven touchdowns. Freiermuth became a dependable target for Russell Wilson, producing a 126.1 QB Rating when targeted (6th), and leading the position in contested-catch rate (90 percent). However, Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation is unsettled, which gives Freiermuth a wide range of outcomes in 2025. If the Steelers sign Aaron Rodgers, Freiermuth could be a borderline TE1. However, expect some TD regression regardless of who is under center.
2024 was a breakout year for Jonnu Smith, averaging 13.2 points per game (PPR) with 88 receptions, 884 yards, and eight touchdowns. His 20.2 percent designed target rate and 0.139 first downs per route run metric highlight his efficiency in Mike McDaniel’s quick-pass offense. Smith’s red-zone prowess (7 TDs) and YAC ability (357 yards) make him a reliable TE1. However, being traded to Pittsburgh significantly hurts his value. Not only is he splitting snaps with Pat Freiermuth, but Arthur Smith has long been a thorn in the side of fantasy production. Jonnu Smith is now barely on the TE2 radar.
ADVICE: The move to Pittsburgh is a big blow to Smith’s fantasy value.
Boswell led all kickers with 155 points last season. He successfully booted 41 of 44 field goals- his second season in a row with a conversion rate over 93%. However, the Steelers should be better at scoring touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers and Kaleb Johnson, so Boswell is going to be overdrafted. He’s more of a fringe starter than top-5 option.
The Steelers remain a strong fantasy option following last season’s DST5 finish. They only got 40 sacks but racked up 33 turnovers. The 2025 Steelers should remain formidable.
WARNING!
Don’t let a fancy website fool you! You need trustworthy rankings to win at fantasy football. We’ve got them! 150+ websites ranked us Top 2 in the industry for our draft rankings.
Get expert advice from Captain Jody Smith and our team of high-stakes winners. Use code JODY30 for 30% off your first two months.
Ready to bring home that championship?
