Washington Redskins Team Outlook
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Redskins Offense Outlook
A quarterback and running back injury led to Washington ranking much lower than expected offensively in 2018. Their passing attack barely had a pulse while looking to be balanced on offense. This year the Redskins will be in transition offensively with a lot of moving parts.
Quarterbacks
Dwayne Haskins
As a sophomore for Ohio State with a starting job, Haskins passed for 4,831 yards with 50 TDs and eight Ints. His completion rate (70.0) edged out Kyler Murray while offering no upside as a runner (79/108/4). Dwayne comes to the NFL with a big arm and with prototypical size (6’3” and 220 lbs.). Most of his snaps came out of the shotgun in college while receiving a big passing window on a high-volume of plays. His game gives me a Philip Rivers feel while looking stronger with more rip on his throws.
Scouting
Haskins can extend plays with subtle movements in the pocket, but his lack of trust in his speed kills his chances of breaking many runs over three yards. Dwayne will be a threat to beat defenses in the deep passing game while needing to improve his decision making when forced to settle for mid-level throws. If he lands on a team with a lousy offensive line, Haskins won’t be a difference maker early in his career. Upside talent who will be best served out of the gate as a game manager than volume passer on a weak team.
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The Redskins lack talent at WR with questionable upside at TE, which paints a low upside picture for Haskins in his rookie season if he wins the starting job. I like his future upside, but Dwayne would only be a QB3 option in the Fantasy market in 2019.
Case Keenum
After an impactful showing with the Vikings in 2017 (11-3 with 3,547 passing yards and 22 TDs), Keenum floundered over 16 games last year for Denver. He finished with 3,890 passing yards with 18 TDs and 15 Ints. His completion rate (62.3) came in below his success in Minnesota (67.6). His experience gives him the inside track at the starting job in September while lacking a playable window in any format.
Other Options: Colt McCoy, Josh Woodrum, Alex Smith
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Running Backs
Adrian Peterson
A preseason injury to Derrius Guice created a 16-game starting opportunity for Peterson after being a free agent before the season. He finished with 1,250 combined yards with eight TDs and 20 catches. Adrian rushed over 1,000 yards in eight years in the NFL, pushing him to 8th all-time in rushing yards (13,318). This season he’ll compete with Guice for the lead role for the Redskins. Derrius suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last August while battling an infection in December. Peterson will start the year at age 34. I expect him to be the early-down back in September for Washington while losing momentum once Guice regains his health. A fair starting point would be 150 touches for 700+ yards with a handful of TDs.
Derrius Guice
Over his last two seasons at LSU, Guice rushed for 2,638 yards with 29 TDs plus 27 catches for 230 yards. His yards per rush (7.6) and yards per catch (11.8) were much more impressive in 2016. Those two stats fell to 5.3 and 6.9 last year. The difference in his previous two seasons in college came down to more long runs in 2016. Derrius will attack the line of scrimmage if the play calls for him to be a north/south runner plus run with vision and acceleration to the outside.
His burst upfield is sneaky leading to defenders being left in the dust if they fail to take the correct angle on a tackle. Guice creates space and separation with his quick cut and the ability to downshift and upshift in a matter of a couple of steps. He’ll break many tackles while also taking some unnecessary hits in his quest to finish runs. Derrius has a talent for breaking out of tight quarters when a play looks dead in the water.
Last season Washington’s RB ran the ball 329 times for 1,415 yards and 11 TDs. Their RBs gained only 4.3 yards per rush with only seven runs over 20 yards. Guice is a player who will upgrade the Redskins rushing attack and prove to be a factor at the goal line once he regains his health. His passing catching upside will be limited with Chris Thompson scheduled to be the third-down back. Derrius will handle his responsibilities in pass protection while still adding some value in the passing game. I don’t like players coming off significant injuries, so I’ll sit out the 2019 season with any Guice investments unless his price point is dirt cheap.
Chris Thompson
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Bryce Love
After Christian McCaffrey left Stanford for the Panthers, Love rushed for 2,118 yards with 19 TDs while offering minimal value in catches (6/33). The next season he battled injuries during the year before his season ended with a torn ACL in his right knee. Bryce finished with 838 combined yards with six TDs and 20 catches in his senior year. His time/opportunity won’t come until 2020.
Other Options: Samaje Perine, Byron Marshall, Craig Reynolds
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Wide Receivers
Josh Doctson
Over the last two seasons, Doctson received the same number of targets (78), leading to two short years (35/502/6 and 44/532/2). His catch rate (56.4) in 2018 was much better than the previous season (44.9), which was helped by shorter yards per catch (12.1). Josh finished with only one game with over 70 yards (4/84) and only two games (5/49 and 6/66) with more than four catches. Possible growth in his third full season of game action, but I don’t see an impact player. Washington is thin at WR, which create a viable opportunity. His next step should put him in a range with 55+ catches for 650+ yards and a handful of TDs.
Paul Richardson
In 2017, Richardson flashed at times for the Seahawks, which led to 44 catches for 703 yards and six TDs on 80 targets. In his seven games for Washington, Paul managed only 20 catches for 262 yards and two TDs on 35 targets while failing to score over 12 Fantasy points in any game. His season ended with a shoulder injury that required surgery in early November. The Redskins hope to have him ready for the start of training camp. Nothing more than a WR5 gamble with a chance to offer some big play ability.
Trey Quinn
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Terry McLaurin
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Other Options: Kelvin Harmon, Brian Quick, Cam Sims, Robert Davis, Jehu Chesson, Darvin Kidsy
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Tight Ends
Jordan Reed
Based on name value, Reed still commands attention in drafts while living on his excellent 2015 season (87/952/11). Last year Jordan did a decent job when on the field (54/558/2 on 84 targets), but his catch rate (64.3) was well below his previous resume (76.0). He played in Week 11 (7/71/1) and Week 12 (6/76) before suffering a foot injury that ended his season. In his career, Reed missed 31 if 96 games. He’s the best receiving option on the Redskins while bringing injury risk. In 2018, Washington’s TEs caught 85 passes for 980 yards and four TDs on 127 targets, which shows the upside of his opportunity. Easy 70+ catches for 85+ yards and a team-high in TDs if he plays 16 full games.
Other Options: Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle, Matt Flanagan, J.P. Holtz, Donald Parham
Kicker
Dustin Hopkins
Over the last three and half seasons with Washington, Hopkins made 85.3 percent of his 116 field goal chances over 55 games. In 2018, he made 26 of his 29 FG tries with success from 50 yards or longer (4-for-5). In his career, Dustin made nine of his 18 chances from long range while making 118 of his 124 extra point chances. Washington scored 29 TDs last year with only 29 field goal chances. Solid leg, but he’ll be a tough Fantasy start without a huge step up in offensive production for the Redskins.
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