Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report
Last year, there were three star tight ends led by the impact game by Sam LaPorta (9/140/1). Evan Engram (9/82/1) found the endzone for the first time in 2023, while Trey McBride (8/89/1) continued his impressive ride over the past six weeks. Only three other players scored more than 15.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 13 weeks:
- T.J. Hockenson (15.63)
- Travis Kelce (15.36)
- Sam LaPorta (14.33)
- George Kittle (12.81)
- Evan Engram (11.55)
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 14 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Option
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000)
Since his impact game (12/179/1) in Week 7, Kelce has been a losing investment in the daily games. He scored between 11.80 and 16.40 fantasy points in four of his last five starts. That included an empty showing in Week 9 (3/14) vs. the Dolphins. The Chiefs have only looked his way 25 times over his previous four games, compared to 9.7 targets per game from Week 2 and Week 8. Last year, Kelce had eight catches for 112 yards vs. the Bills.
Buffalo allowed fewer than 11.00 fantasy points to tight ends in PPR formats over 10 of their 12 contests, ranking them 10th in tight end defense (54/497/3). The Patriots (6/83/1) and Bengals (10/101/2) had surprising production from their tight ends against the Bills. The only top 10 TE faced this year was Evan Engram (5/44 on 10 targets).
Patrick Mahomes must get Kelce more involved if they want to make a deep playoff run in 2023. Kelce needs to score more than 30.00 fantasy points to be in play based on his salary at DraftKings. He is batting 1-for-11 this year in this area and 3-for-20 in 2022. When at his best, Kelce can score multiple touchdowns with a high floor in catches and receiving yards.
Mid-Tier Options
T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)
Over the past four games with Joshua Dobbs behind center, Hockenson has 27 catches for 308 yards and two touchdowns on 40 targets. That was highlighted by his impact game (11/134/1) in Week 10. He has a floor of seven catches in half of his 12 starts while scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in two other contests (7/66/2 and 6/88/1). Hockenson has at least eight targets in three-fourths of his games.
The Raiders are 13th in the league vs. tight ends (64/602/3 on 78 targets), with their weakness in coverage coming in three games (BUF – 8/53/1, DET – 9/62/1, and KC – 9/121). Tight ends scored at least 10.00 fantasy points in eight of 12 matchups.
The return of Justin Jefferson helps the Vikings’ passing game and spacing for Hockenson. But it also adds more competition for targets. Minnesota averaged 33.8 passes over the last five games, compared to 40 over their first seven contests with Kirk Cousins starting. Hockenson works close to the line of scrimmage (9.8 yards per catch), requiring an 8/90/1 game to be in play. He appears to be overpriced in Week 14 despite offering a high floor (15.88 FPPG in DraftKings scoring).
George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600)
The 49ers threw the ball exceptionally well over their last five games (1,517/12) due to gaining 20 yards or more on 30 of their 102 completions. On the downside, San Fran has the best running back in the game while ranking last in the league in pass attempts per game (28.0). Their passing game creates only 19.6 completions per week. Kittle has been quiet in his last two starts (3/19 and 4/68) after posting more than 20.00 fantasy points in his previous three games (23.90, 20.60, and 22.90). His only other playable outcome came in Week 5 (3/67/3). The 49ers gave him more than six targets in only four matchups. The Seahawks held him to 4.90 fantasy points in Week 12.
Seattle is about league average in tight end defense (63/659/2 on 84 targets), with three teams (CLE – 5/83/1, BAL – 13/122, and DAL – 7/89/1) having success. The Seahawks’ defense allowed nine touchdowns and three field goals over their last 23 possessions against the 49ers and Cowboys.
Each week, one of San Francisco’s top three receiver options outside of Christian McCaffrey has a chance to come in. Kittle doesn’t have a great opportunity (5.6 targets per game) compared to the top tight ends in the game, but he has scoring ability (16 over his last 27 starts) while averaging 14.7 yards per catch. He plays in the right offense, but only a coin flip to shine if the 49ers play from the lead.
Low-Value Options
Cole Kmet, CHI (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,600)
When comparing Kmet to George Kittle, he has six more catches and the same number of touchdowns (5). Unfortunately, he only has 482 receiving yards (253 fewer – a difference of 2.10 fantasy points per game) due to gaining only 8.6 yards per catch. His opportunity (68 targets – 67 by Kittle) is almost identical, but he has a much lower salary. Kmet has two impact games (7/85/2 and 6/55/2) and two other playable outcomes (15.20 and 17.90 fantasy points) for his price point. In Week 11, the Lions held him to three catches for 20 yards on four targets while Chicago played from the lead. He played well in his home start (4/74/2) vs. Detroit in 2022.
The Lions slipped to 24th defending tight ends (58/579/6 on 85 targets) after getting beat by Tayson Hill (13/59/1 rushing with two catches for 15 yards) and New Orleans (5/49/1) in Week 13. From Week 7 to Week 12, tight ends only had 16 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns on 28 targets. The Seahawks (9/132) and Falcons (11/88) had the most success in catches and receiving yards.
Kmet doesn’t have a jump-of-the-page matchup, but he is fairly priced with success in scoring (four of his 14 career touchdowns) vs. the Lions. His best opportunity comes when Chicago has to chase on the scoreboard. In Week 11 vs. Detroit, Justin Fields only attempted 23 passes (169/1).
Isaiah Likely, BAL (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,200)
In his first start after Mark Andrews’s injury, Likely caught four of his six targets for 40 yards. The Ravens had him on the field for 73% of their plays, similar to his playing time in Week 11 (74%). On the year, he has 13 catches for 129 yards on 18 targets. When given a bump in playing time in his rookie season, Likely played well in two games (6/77/1 and 8/103) while having one catch for 24 yards and a score in his other matchup.
The Rams fell to 27th in tight end fantasy defense (60/700/5 on 85 targets) after struggling to defend the Browns’ tight ends (8/72/1) in Week 13. Los Angeles also had risk in two other matchups (IND – 6/107/1 and PHI – 9/121/1).
On the year, Baltimore’s tight ends have 59 catches for 686 yards and six touchdowns on 81 targets. Likely will be the player the DFS market gravitates to in Week 14 due to his favorable price point. The Ravens feature their tight end in the passing game, giving him an excellent chance to post four times his salary vs. the Rams while also having a higher ceiling if game flow slants his way. Rain could dampen his chances, and Baltimore may need to chip with their tight ends to slow down Aaron Donald.
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