Week 14 DFS: Tight End Report Last year, there were three star tight ends led by the impact game by […]
Week 13 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position was relatively quiet in Week 12, with Pat Freiermuth (9/120) and Tyler Higbee (5/29/2) being the winning exacta. Only three other players scored more than 15.00 fantasy points – Sam […]
The tight end position was relatively quiet in Week 12, with Pat Freiermuth (9/120) and Tyler Higbee (5/29/2) being the winning exacta. Only three other players scored more than 15.00 fantasy points – Sam LaPorta (17.70), T.J. Hockenson (16.00), and Travis Kelce (15.10). Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 12 weeks:
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 13 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 13 DFS: QB Report.
Top-Tier Options
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,400)
After three consecutive games (23.90, 20.60, and 22.90) with 20+ fantasy points, Kittle had a quiet showing (3/19 on five targets) vs. the Seahawks. He only had four games with more than six targets during the year. His value has been much more substantial at home (28/404/4 – 19.08 FPPG) than on the road (18/263/1 – 8.92 FPPG). The 49ers looked his way 6, 3, 2, 7, 4, and 5 times away from San Francisco. The Eagles held him to three catches for 36 yards on four targets last year in the playoffs on the road.
Philadelphia ranks 22nd in tight end defense (55/520/6 on 71 targets), with struggles in five matchups (NE – 8/92/1, MIN – 9/79/2, WAS – 7/61/1, DAL – 8/91/1, and KC – 7/44/1). They also faced three teams with weakness at the tight end position (TB – 1/16, MIA – 0/0, and LAR – 2/20 with five combined targets).
With Travis Kelce off the main slate on Sunday and T.J. Hockenson on a bye, Kittle is the highest-priced tight end. His resume on the road suggests more of a risk/reward type play with lower ownership expected. His scoring upside keeps him in play, and a higher-scoring game should increase his targets.
Mid-Tier Options
Dalton Schultz, HOU (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,200)
After his impact game (10/130/1), the Texans struggled to get Schultz…
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Week 11 NFL Player Props For the first time this season, we didn’t have a profitable week. In Week 10, we finished 3-4 (-1.5 Units) and are now 31-24 (+8.8 Units) on the 2023 season. It’s time to get back […]
Week 11 NFL Player Props
For the first time this season, we didn’t have a profitable week. In Week 10, we finished 3-4 (-1.5 Units) and are now 31-24 (+8.8 Units) on the 2023 season. It’s time to get back in the winning column after a tough week with our Week 11 NFL Player Props.
As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 11’s slate of NFL action. Unlike last week when several high-powered offenses were on bye weeks such as the reigning AFC and NFC Champions, Week 11’s bye belongs to four mediocre teams: the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and the abysmal New England Patriots.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 11 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.
Bryce Young OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-105)
The Panthers are now 10.5-point underdogs on the road against a filthy Dallas Cowboys defense. You might be wondering why I’d recommend this prop when Bryce Young has struggled so much and we’ve seen how dominant this Cowboys team can be. However, a blowout would result in Carolina playing catch-up and airing it out all night to try to even the score.
Dallas is 4-1 against the spread when laying at least six points this season and their average margin of victory in those four wins is 27.5 points (largely due to the New York Giants). Young is going to have to throw the ball if Carolina has any chance at keeping pace with Dallas’ high-octane offense.
It’s important to note that in every single game that Young started in which the Panthers lost by double digits, he attempted at least 38 passes. With the Panthers expected to fall behind big time in this game, the franchise will likely want to see what the No.1 pick in this year’s draft can do given this is already a lost season for the 1-8 Panthers. Even if they are down big, it’s hard to envision Young being benched. The team will want to further his development and not shake his confidence. Take the Over.
Will Levis…
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Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report Three of the top four tight ends in Week 8 finished first, second, and third in Week 10. T.J. Hockenson posted an elite game (11/134/1), propelling him over Travis Kelce in year-long rankings. Trey […]
Three of the top four tight ends in Week 8 finished first, second, and third in Week 10. T.J. Hockenson posted an elite game (11/134/1), propelling him over Travis Kelce in year-long rankings. Trey McBride (8/131) took home the silver medal, followed by George Kittle (3/116/1). No other tight end scored more than 16.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 10 weeks ranked by scoring average in PPR formats:
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 11 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000)
In two of Kittle’s three best games, he only had four targets in each matchup. The first score was driven by touchdowns (3/67/3), and the second came from hitting on a 66-yard touchdown (3/116/1), with two other catches gaining at least 20 yards. His best opportunity (11 targets) came in a chaser game in Week 8 (9/149). Over his last three games, Kittle averaged 21.17 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring.
Tampa Bay sits 22nd vs. tight ends (53/514/2 on 78 targets). Their two touchdowns allowed came over the last three weeks, with Dalton Schultz drilling them for 10 catches for 130 yards and one touchdown. One other team (MIN – 11/67) had double targets, and five more offenses posted at least five catches.
Kittle has a higher salary than his overall chances (5.2 targets per game) compared to the best tight ends in the game. His yards per catch (16.0) create an edge, and he scored 11 times over his last 20 starts. Kittle is trending higher, but his impact value requires more targets. I view him as more of an option in a 49ers’ passing stack.
Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)
Over the first nine games, LaPorta has a definable trend in the DFS market. He scored four touchdowns over four matchups at home (5/63, 8/84/1, 3/47/2, and 8/57/1), leading to 18.28 fantasy points per game. Away from Detroit, LaPorta has yet to deliver a playable outcome (5/39, 4/56, 4/36, 6/52, and 4/40) despite having a floor of four catches. Over his nine starts, LaPorta averages 7.1 targets and 10.1 yards per catch.
Chicago struggled vs. tight ends in four contests (KC – 8/78/1, WAS – 12/105/1, LAC – 5/52/2, and NO – 10/65/2). They rank 27th in tight end defense (65/516/6 on 80 targets). Tight ends gain short yards per catch (7.9), which is overcome by a high catch rate (81.3).
His resume at home and scoring ability give him a chance to…
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Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three […]
Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three weeks has been Taysom Hill (20.12 FPPG). Here are the top five players by scoring average after nine weeks in PPR formats:
Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 10 DFS: QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)
Even in a blowout game against the Seahawks, Andrews caught a season-high nine passes for 80 yards on 10 targets. He averaged 16.95 fantasy points in PPR formats over his last six starts, highlighted by two winning outputs (25.00 and 22.30). On the downside, Andrews averaged only 6.9 targets. His best game (5/80/2) came in Week 4 vs. the Browns.
Cleveland has the best tight end defense (19/155/2 on 28 targets). They held seven opponents to fewer than 6.00 fantasy points (CIN – 3/17, PIT – 1/2, TEN – 3/7, SF – 1/1, IND – 1/-6, SEA – 2/32, and ARI – 3/22). The Browns played well defensively in three games (3, 3, and 0 points allowed) while showing much more weakness on the road (88 points over three matchups). They have 26 sacks, requiring the tight end to help in pass protection on some plays.
The Ravens’ offense has been exceptional over their last three games (106 points), leading to 13 touchdowns and five field goals over 34 possessions. Baltimore runs the ball well, especially in scoring (15 touchdowns). Andrews will have some chances at the goal line, but he needs a wide open game to fill his salary bucket. Not ideal for his salary, but I can’t dismiss him.
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,1000/FD – $6,300)
A chaser game in Week 8 led to Kittle setting season-highs in catches (9), receiving yards (149), and targets (11), lifting him to sixth in tight end scoring (94.50 fantasy points). Over eight starts, he has been a losing investment in four matchups (3/19, 3/30, 1/9, and 1/1) while receiving 12 combined targets in those games. His best three days came at home (7/90, 3/67/3, and 9/149). The injury to Deebo Samuel bumped up his value over the two previous weeks.
The Jaguars rank 25th…
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NFL DFS Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. 49ers This article will help you build your NFL DFS Monday Night Football […]
Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 […]
The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 fantasy points) and Dallas Goedert (no catches) weren’t worthy of starting in any format. T.J. Hockenson (11.50 fantasy points) was the third-highest scoring option in PPR formats.
Six of the top 10 scoring tight ends were either undrafted or resided on fantasy benches.
Zach Ertz led all tight ends in targets (10) despite being questionable to play in Week 1. Logan Thomas (8), Durham Smythe (7), and Kylen Granson (6) ranked in the top 10 in targets despite being found in the free-agent pool in almost all 12-team league heading into Week 2. Here’s the total tight end production from Washington, Miami, and Indianapolis in 2022:
Indy had the best overall tight end opportunity of the three last year while throwing the ball over 600 times. The change at quarterback points to a minimum of 100 fewer throws. Also, the Colts rotated in three options in Week 1. Here is the snap breakdown for their tight ends in 2022: Mo Alie-Cox (586), Kylen Granson (408), and Jelani Woods (334).
Last season, only five tight ends averaged more than 10.00 fantasy points per game in PPR formats (7 in 2021 and 6 in 2020).
Here’s a look at some tight ends on the main slate in Week 2 in the DFS market:
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2 DFS QB Report and Week 2 DFS RB Report.
Top Tier Options
Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000)
In the early projections, Andrews is the top-rated tight end for Week 2. But he is far from a lock to be a difference-maker after turning in a limited practice on Wednesday. Last year, he scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in four of his 14 matchups (25.70, 28.90, 22.90, and 23.60), but they all came over the first six weeks. Andrews also sat out Week 1 in 2022 but delivered an impact game (9/107/1) the following game vs. the Dolphins at home. He had two starts (8/89/1 and 5/73) against Cincinnati last season.
The Bengals (88/924/3) struggled to defend the tight end four times (7/115,10/96/1, 10/87, and 8/67/1) in 2022. The Browns’ tight ends had five catches for 41 yards and one score on six targets in Week 1.
Andrews comes into this week with risk in his role and potential snaps. At the same time, his higher salary requires 25.00 fantasy points to be worth the investment. If he plays, I don’t expect him to be a popular option, creating an edge ownership if he does pay off. I’m only taking a flier on him on teams with Lamar Jackson.
George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200)
Kittle had a dull showing in Week 1 (3/19 on six targets) while being in the field for 69% of the 49ers plays. When at his best late in 2022, San Fran gave him 90% or more of their tight end snaps in 11 of his 18 games. His best success came over four games (4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1, and 4/29/2) late last season with Brock Purdy behind center. Kittle had five catches or more in only four matchups (5/47, 8/83, 6/98/1, and 6/120/2) with only one double-digit target game (10).
The Rams finished 13th in…
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2023 Fantasy Tight End Values It seems like tight ends are becoming more valuable as each fantasy season arrives. Much of that value can be attributed to the lack of depth available throughout the position. Also, many leagues have begun […]
It seems like tight ends are becoming more valuable as each fantasy season arrives. Much of that value can be attributed to the lack of depth available throughout the position. Also, many leagues have begun to mitigate that weakness by rewarding bonus points for tight end receptions.
Regardless of your league’s settings, securing a reliable weekly tight end is a huge advantage in fantasy football. And since there are so few elite options, most fantasy football managers will be searching for the top 2023 fantasy tight end values to target on draft day.
Here are the top-5 2023 fantasy tight end values that you should consider when assembling your roster this summer.
Last year, Travis Kelce (317.3 fantasy points) dominated the tight end pool. He had more than a 100-point edge over the second-best option (T.J. Hockenson – 216.40 fantasy points) while doubling the output of the sixth-ranked (Tyler Higbee – 152.00 fantasy points). Kelce had a floor of 15 fantasy points in 12 of his 17 starts, doubling the second-highest player (George Kittle – 6) in this area. Only three running backs and three wide receivers outscored Kelce in 2022 in PPR formats.
Eight tight end games with 30-plus fantasy points came from the top 12 best players. The TE1s scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 17 times (12 by the top four tight ends). The other remaining options delivered just nine outcomes in this category.
During the year, there were 210 games by tight ends with a floor of 10 fantasy points. Here’s the breakdown by groupings:
Below the top 18 tight ends last season, there were only four games with more than 20 fantasy points – Jordan Akins – 25., Mike Gesicki – 24.9, Mo Alie-Cox – 26.5, Shane Zylstra – 25.6, and Trey McBride – 20.8).
Here’s a look at the week-to-week scores by the top 24 tight ends in 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE 2023 FANTASY TIGHT END VALUES TO TARGET DURING YOUR DRAFT OR AUCTION?
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2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Brock Purdy
Over four seasons at Iowa, Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
Injuries at quarterback last season gave Purdy their starting job in Week 13. Over his eight games, he went 8-0 with 1,854 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Purdy completed 66.8% of his passes with elite yards per pass attempt (8.4). His impact showing came in the first game in the postseason (348 yards and four scores). When him behind center, San Fran averaged 27.5 passes.
His season ended in the Super Bowl due to an ACL injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February. Baseball players need 18 months to recover fully from these types of injuries. The 49ers believe he has a shot to be ready for Week 1.
Fantasy Outlook: His success in 2022 (172.2 fantasy points in a four-point passing touchdown league) projected over 17 games ranked Purdy as a top-10 quarterback.
Jody Smith: Purdy has returned to the 49ers and is taking the majority of first-team reps. Also, Kyle Shanahan has praised Purdy’s leadership and rehab. That puts the sophomore signal caller in-line to be the club’s starter in Week One. View Purdy as an upside QB2 with a targetable discount ADP.
Trey Lance
With the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers invested in Lance. His natural comparison would be Lamar Jackson by stats, but Lance can’t match his top-end speed or arm strength. He plays with his eyes up when breaking the pocket while featuring an explosive gear when turning a run-up field. My comp was closer to Deshaun Watson in overall look.
Lance needs more experience reading defenses and will be tested as a passer at the next level. His challenge will come in defeating coverage in the deep passing game, as his reads will invite runs before a wide receiver breaks free over the long field.
Lance came to the NFL with one starting season on his resume in college. In his sophomore year in 2019, he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns while not throwing an interception. Also, Lance was a beast on the ground (169/1,100/14), setting up an intriguing NFL career. Back in 2020, North Dakota State canceled the football season after one game, leading to him entering the draft. His style of play fits well in the 49ers’ offense. They want to control the line of scrimmage with a dominant run game while offering an exciting combination of receivers at wide receiver and tight end.
In six games of action in his rookie season, he gained 771 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Lance saw 2022 end after 82 snaps over two games due to a broken right ankle. He struggled in his only complete game (164/0 with 13 rushes for 54 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: The spring reports have been positive, pointing to Lance fighting for the 49ers’ starting quarterback job. Brock Purdy is trending toward being ready for Week 1. San Francisco has a challenging decision in 2023, but Lance has to prove he can win games in the NFL before regaining the starting job.
Other Options: Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen
Update: Brock Purdy has returned to the lineup. Also, some reports indicate that Lance has slipped to third on the depth chart. Plus, the 49ers reportedly have received “substantial” trade inquiries for Lance. Other Opt
— Running Backs —
The 49ers’ running backs scored 73 touchdowns over the past three seasons. The addition of Christian McCaffrey led to new tops in all categories except for rushing touchdowns (18) last year. They gained 3,050 combined yards with 24 scores and 87 catches (31.53 FPPG in PPR formats). Their backs have had more than 500 touches each season from 2020 and 2022.
Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey led fantasy leagues in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2). In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10 catches or more in five games.
He averaged 28.7 touches per game (30.13 FPPG) in 2020 while missing 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries. In 2021, McCaffrey played well over his seven starts (785 combined yards with two touchdowns and 37 catches). His regression in scoring led to 18.21 FPPG with a step down in touches (19.4 per week) due to his injuries (hamstring and ankle).
After missing 24 games in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey played the entire season last year, leading to 1,880 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 85 catches. In his 13 full games with the 49ers, he averaged 22.34 FPPG while averaging 19.5 touches. His best two showings in fantasy points came in Week 8 (40.60) and Week 17 (31.30).
Fantasy Outlook: With the risk factor a little further in the background and another stellar season on his resume, McCaffrey has a bright shade of green next to his name on the draft sheet. San Francisco features their running back position in their offense, and they have the best option in the league in the starting lineup. McCaffrey is a top-three player drafted in 2023. His floor, with 17 games played, should be 350 touches for 1,900 yards with 17 touchdowns and 90 catches.
Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers’ offense.
For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers’ backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 matchups during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) and a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 starts (including the playoffs). Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues.
Last year, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.
Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco would love Mitchell to stay healthy, and…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE NINERS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
This Week 9 Thursday Night Football Preview from fantasy football expert Dr. Roto examines tonight’s matchup between the 49ers and Cardinals. […]
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