Patrick Mahomes
Season Long – All Sports

Week 14 NFL Player Props

Week 14 NFL Player Props After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports […]

Week 14 NFL Player Props

After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had another profitable week, let’s see if we can continue to ride the way and make some more cash in Week 14. 

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 14’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every single one of the 32 teams was in action, two teams will get some rest on their bye weeks: the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals. That said, we still have 15 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown. 

Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season. 

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Mahomes has not seen his rushing yard prop line this high all season. In fact, he didn’t see a line this high last season either. Last week the line was 20.5 and the highest it’s been over the last two years was 27.5. So why is the line so high this week against a tough Buffalo Bills defense? Perhaps it is because Mahomes is having the best rushing campaign of his career (27.6 yards per game) and has even eclipsed this inflated line in three of 12 games. But it’s not like the Bills are especially vulnerable to quarterback rushing yards. Buffalo is allowing 19.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve only allowed one opposing quarterback to eclipse this line in 12 games this season. 

That said, the one time the Bills allowed a quarterback to eclipse this line was last week when Jalen Hurts turned 14 carries into 65 rushing yards. But that stay is even misleading considering 27 of those yards came in overtime. 

Mahomes will obviously do Mahomesesque things in this battle between two AFC powerhouses but I expect the Chiefs to lean on the passing game, particularly with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the start and just because Pacheco is out doesn’t mean Andy Reid is going to call designed quarterback runs this close to the end of the season when an injury to Mahomes would derail the Chiefs’ entire Super Bowl hopes. 

The one scary thing about this prop is that in five starts against the Bills over his career (two in the postseason), Mahomes has tallied 192 rushing yards on 34 carries. However, I believe those stats are inflated because Mahomes is going to be more inclined to rush in playoff games when the Chiefs have nothing to lose. In a regular season game this far out from the postseason, I anticipate Andy Reid wanting to protect his All-Pro quarterback as much as possible. 

The line is quite high due to Mahomes’ success against Buffalo but the Bills will keep him in check on the ground. Patrick Mahomes is not Jalen Hurts so don’t expect another 60+ yards from this quarterback on the ground. Patrick has proven that he is much more comfortable moving the chains with his arm rather than his legs. Take the UNDER. 

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

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DFS

Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report D.K. Metcalf (6/134/3) had a correction game in Week 13, putting him on the wide receiver podium for the first time all year. Deebo Samuel (35.80) and Nico Collins (34.10) finished second and third […]

Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

D.K. Metcalf (6/134/3) had a correction game in Week 13, putting him on the wide receiver podium for the first time all year. Deebo Samuel (35.80) and Nico Collins (34.10) finished second and third for the week. Tyreek Hill (32.70), CeeDee Lamb (32.60), and Ja’Marr Chase (31.90) all posted impact games. Five other wideouts scored between 23.50 and 29.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.17)
  • Keenan Allen (22.30)
  • CeeDee Lamb (22.13)
  • A.J. Brown (19.95)
  • Ja’Marr Chase (19.54)

Also, before we get into the Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,500/FD – $9,000)

After an eight-week vacation with a hamstring issue, Jefferson returns to the starting lineup in Week 14. His season started with four productive games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2). He averaged 11.75 targets, leading to 28.33 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring. Over this stretch, the Vikings attempted 157 passes. 

Las Vegas ranks 14th in wide receiver defense (141/1,724/10 on 215 targets), with one disaster game (MIA – 19/263/1). Their pass defense showed regression over the last three games (NYJ – 263/0, MIA – 325/2, and KC – 298/2). Three wideouts (Amon-Ra St. Brown – 6/108, Tyreek Hill – 10/146/1, and Rashee Rice – 8/107/1) gained more than 100 yards receiving. Their best cornerback (Nate Hobbs) works primarily out of the slot, suggesting a favorable matchup for Jefferson.

The key to the Vikings’ top wideout is his chemistry with Joshua Dobbs and Minnesota upping their passing attempts. Jefferson has beast upside, and a running quarterback could help his ability to break free for a long scoring play.

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DFS

Week 14 DFS: Running Back Report

Week 14 DFS: Running Back Report Joe Mixon (29.70) finished as the top-scoring running back in Week 13, lifting him to sixth in fantasy points (178.10) for the season. Alvin Kamara (28.90) won the runner-up prize, followed by De’Von Achane […]

Week 14 DFS: Running Back Report

Joe Mixon (29.70) finished as the top-scoring running back in Week 13, lifting him to sixth in fantasy points (178.10) for the season. Alvin Kamara (28.90) won the runner-up prize, followed by De’Von Achane (25.30) and Derek Henry (25.00). Five other running backs scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (24.76)
  • Raheem Mostert (17.95)
  • Travis Etienne (17.48)
  • Alvin Kamara (15.68)
  • Rachaad White (15.33)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 14 DFS QB Report.

Elite Tier Option

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)

McCaffrey is the most consistent running back in the NFL. He holds close to a seven-point weekly average edge in PPR formats. His floor has been 20.00 fantasy points in 10 of his 12 starts while riding a six-game streak. His best two showings came in Week 4 (48.70) and Week 12 (30.90) vs. division opponents (ARI and SEA). The 49ers give him 21.75 touches a game. And McCaffrey has a score in every contest except Week 10. Two weeks ago, he gained 139 yards with two touchdowns and five catches against the Seahawks.

Seattle slipped to 28th in running back defense after three disaster games (42.00, 45.50, and 35.80 fantasy points) over the past five weeks. Running backs have 15 touchdowns vs. the Seahawks. They struggled in one game defending running backs in the passing game (WAS – 12/164/2). Baltimore (41/298/3) ran over them on the ground in Week 9.

I have McCaffrey projected as a difference-maker in Week 14, giving him a chance at four times his salary at DraftKings. The 49ers are red hot offensively, starting with elite quarterback play. The challenge is finding a winning roster behind him in the DFS market.

Top-Tier Options

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DFS

Week 14 Quarterback Report

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.91)
  • Jalen Hurts (27.23)
  • Dak Prescott (24.43)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.62)
  • Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills. 

Buffalo showed more risk

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Most Accurate Rankings Badge
Season Long – All Sports

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 14

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 14 FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is […]

Jody Smith’s Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 14

FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home of our FullTime Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 14.



Ranking You Can Trust

Our staff was ranked No. 1 last season, with not one but TWO analysts inside the top 10. With projections powered by NFBC Hall-of-Fame writer Shawn Childs and former FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert Jody Smith, FullTime Fantasy Members get instant access to reliable and trustworthy weekly rankings.

Additionally, Jody and Adam Krautwurst co-host the FullTime Fantasy Podcast, which is live-streamed weekly on YouTube. The guys are also active in the FullTime Fantasy Discord channel, helping answer all fantasy and sports betting inquiries.



Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 14

 

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DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 Remember when Thursday was ‘Must See TV’? That no longer applies. After being blessed with a terrific game last week that featured no punts, football fans will be hard-pressed to be excited about the […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

Remember when Thursday was ‘Must See TV’? That no longer applies. After being blessed with a terrific game last week that featured no punts, football fans will be hard-pressed to be excited about the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14.

After watching a game with no punts, Week 14 features two of the five lowest-scoring teams in football. New England is coming off a 6-0 shutout. The Patriots have scored one touchdown total in their last three games. Additionally, being shutout by the Chargers’ 28th-ranked defense does not bode well for a trip to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers defense that has surrendered the sixth-fewest points.

Meanwhile, only four other teams have mustered fewer points on offense than Pittsburgh. Additionally, the Steelers are now trotting out their No. 2 quarterback on short rest.

The Steelers opened as slight favorites and a futile total of 35 points plummeted down to a meager 30.

Hardly a must-see event- this AFC duel is strictly for diehards and fantasy fanatics.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
New England Patriots 28 23 21 28 32
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 28 14 25 28

 

These two teams put the offense in ‘offensive’.

New England has struggled in all facets of assembling a credible offense. They have scored the fewest points in football. Also, New England has a pathetic 10-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio. Finally, they rank 31st in average starting position, percentage of drives resulting in points, and dead-last in field goal percentage.

Things have been marginally better in Pittsburgh, especially since dismissing Matt Canada. The Steelers are a respectable 14th with 1,384 rushing yards and lead the NFL with only 10 turnovers. Mike Tomlin has done another fantastic job guiding a very marginal offensive unit to a 7-5 record.

Finally, acclimate yourself with Pressley Harvin III and Bryce Baringer, the team’s punters.

New England Offense 

Despite getting shutout last week, Bill Belichick will…

How will Thursday’s Patriots vs. Steelers game go?

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