Running Backs

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DFS

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

September 23, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre […]

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre Swift (27.10). Six other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five back in scoring in PPR leagues after two games:

  • Christian McCaffrey (48.40)
  • Kyren Williams (22.70)
  • Brian Robinson (42.50)
  • Tony Pollard (42.10)
  • Bijan Robinson (20.75)

 

There have already been three significant injuries to running backs (Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley), sending fantasy managers to an ultra-thin waiver wire to solve their injury woes.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report, WR Report, and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,400)

Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have played from the lead for about 150 minutes while never trailing in a game. They’ve struggled to run the ball in other matches (4.1 and 3.0 yards per rush) despite averaging 37 carries. Pollard has been on the field for 64% of their snaps in both contests, leading to 191 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches (42.10 fantasy points in PPR formats). He is well behind last year’s pace in yards per rush (3.6 – 5.2 in 2022) and yards per catch (5.4 – 9.5 in 2022). Pollard scored eight of his 12 touchdowns at home last season. 

The Cardinals defended running back well over the first two games (44/149/1 – 3.4 yards per carry). They’ve allowed two receiving scores to backs, with minimal damage in catches (8) and receiving yards (46). Arizona finished 27th in running back defense (27.39 FPPG) in 2022.

Pollard had seven rushes inside the five-yard line and 12 inside the 10 yards. I didn’t like to see Rico Dowdle on the field near the goal line last week on one series. But Dowdle failed to reach paydirt in his two chances. Pollard’s 32 touches in Week 2 were career-high. His salary in the DFS market requires an impact game. That is something he achieved only once in 2022 (149 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch). I see a correct game coming in big plays, giving him a chance to be the top running back of the week.

Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)

The fantasy market got a taste of the potential in Week 2 vs. the Packers. Atlanta gave him 24 touches compared to 16 by Tyler Allgeier, leading to a wide edge in combined yards (172 to 48). His snap count rose from 63% to 72%. Robinson had 39 touches on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Two of his plays gained at least 20 yards.

His first road start comes in Detroit, matching him against the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions played well vs. the run over the first two games (23/90 and 25/82/2 – 3.6 yards per rush), with 37.8% of their yards allowed coming from…

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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Javonte Williams
Season Long – All Sports

Mid-Round Running Backs to Target

August 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value […]

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value or a player to avoid. Finding the right mid-round running backs to target on draft day is an important strategy.

And speaking of strategy, the FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive, league-winning tips and advice to help you DOMINATE YOUR LEAGUE! This includes our No.1 rankings, sleepers, fades, and much more!


Identifying Mid-Round Value

In the early draft season, there are too many values at different positions in fantasy football. This creates almost a false ADP for someone jumping into drafts in August. The flow of players in June and July, before the general public catches up with drafting inventory, is built on different buying opportunities.

As training camp news flows and players start getting positive reviews, the ADPs begin to change. This tightens up the player pool and makes it more challenging to execute an early draft plan. Once this happens, the better drafters will make tradeoffs at specific points. This is to secure the most critical players for their fantasy team.

This thought process brings me to the running back options after the first 17 or 18 backs come over the table. Typically, in the BestBall formats that I have been drafting, the running backs come off in this order midway through the fifth round:

Running Backs to Target

Behind each player’s name is a skill set and a story, requiring the casual drafter to understand before deciding who to select. These running back aren’t equal, and a couple will become difference-makers in 2023. Here’s my quick back story on each player.

Kenneth Walker – Excellent rookie season showcasing explosive runs and scoring. He struggled in pass protection, and Seattle brought in competition to play on passing downs. In addition, Walker had a slight groin issue in mid-August that is progressing.

Alexander Mattison – Tempting player based on him expected to start for a high-scoring offense and his success at times as a fill-in for Dalvin Cook. He gained 3.7 yards on his last 208 rushing attempts and 6.8 yards per catch over 47 receptions. With Cook in New York, Mattison has a higher chance of being a wasted pick in the fifth round than an impact player. If he struggles out the gate…

 

WHO ARE THE TOP MID-ROUND RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET ON YOUR DRAFT DAY?

 

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kyle pitts
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Fantasy Football Fades

August 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Fantasy Football Fades Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players […]

2023 Fantasy Football Fades

Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.

For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.


Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders

There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”

Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats. 

Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…

WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?

 

FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…

 

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devon achane
Season Long – All Sports

Top Five Running Back Sleepers

August 9, 2023 Shawn Childs

Top Five Running Back Sleepers There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football. By […]

Top Five Running Back Sleepers

 

There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football.

By in large, top-tier running backs will accumulate the most points in fantasy lineups. That makes them an integral part of each and every lineup. Knowing which mid-to-late-round running back sleepers to target can make all the difference between a middling roster and a real championship contender.

Here are the Top Five Running Back Sleepers to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.

Breaking Down The Field

I researched the running back outcomes in 2022 to keep the same theme with the quarterback and wide receiver week-to-week data. Over 18 weeks, running backs scored 30 fantasy points or more in PPR formats in 26 games. Four of these scores reach the 40-point mark (Joe Mixon – 55.10, Alvin Kamara – 42.80, Christian McCaffrey – 40.60, and Josh Jacobs – 48.30). Austin Ekeler (4) and Josh Jacobs (4) posted the most impact games.

The top 12 running backs posted 17 of the 26 games with more than 30 fantasy points, compared to five by RB2s. Backs scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 107 times, with RB1s accounting for 51 of those showings. They finished with a 106:67 boom or bust ratio (15 fantasy points or more/fewer than 10.00 fantasy points). The second 12 running backs had a much weaker ratio (58:100).

Austin Ekeler scores 20 or more fantasy points in nine games, giving him a 52.9% win rate in his impact ratio. Christian McCaffrey (8) and Derrick Henry (8) finished tied for second in this area. 

The highest floor ratio (76.5) went to Christian McCaffery (13 games), followed by Austin Ekeler (12) and Saquan Barkley (12), then Derrick Henry (10) and Nick Chubb (10).

After Week 10, only three back scores ranking outside the top 38 scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game (Brian Robinson – 20.50, JaMycal Hasty – 20.50, and Zack Moss – 21.10). 

Here’s a look at the top 24 running backs from last season with their highlighted week-to-week scores…

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

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David Montgomery
Season Long – All Sports

Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs

August 7, 2023 Shawn Childs

Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy […]

Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs

No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy and safety net.

With so many teams employing committee backfields, selecting your early-round running back’s direct backup makes sense. Whether you play in redraft, bestball, or in high-stakes leagues, knowing the fantasy-relevant handcuff running backs is crucial.

Here are the top 10 fantasy football handcuffs to target in the 2023 draft season.

David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)

With Jahmyr Gibbs added to the Lions’ offense, Montgomery tends to be an afterthought as an RB3 (ranks 29th) in the high-stakes market. Despite being listed as a handcuff back, he will be the early down back for Detroit with value in scoring and catches. Detroit’s running backs gained 2,795 combined yards with 29 scores and 82 catches (31.5 FPPG in PPR formats) in 2022.

Montgomery projects to be a better option than Jamaal Williams (262/1,066/17 with 12 catches for 73 yards) this season. I don’t expect as many touchdowns. But Montgomery will be more active in the passing game. At the very least, Montgomery is a cheat RB2 who should outperform his ADP in 2023.

Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders)

Gibson ended up being a fantasy disappointment in 2022 due to the emergence of Brian Robinson. He rushed for more than 60 yards in only one (18/72) of his 15 matchups while offering only two showings (7/72 and 7/58/1) with more than three catches.

Despite his shortfall, Gibson finished 28th in running back scoring in PPR formats. A new offensive coordinator (Eric Bieniemy) invites more chances for Washington’s running backs in the passing game. Gibson will be a rotational player on early downs, with most of his action coming in the passing game. Pass-catching backs tend to have a higher floor, giving Gibson RB3 status this year…

WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACK HANDCUFFS SHOULD FANTASY DRAFTERS TARGET IN 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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Season Long – All Sports

2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB

July 3, 2023 Jody Smith

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy […]

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

After breaking down quarterbacks previously, here is a deep dive into the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB and how to take advantage of that data this draft season.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

Favorable Schedules

Javonte Williams & Samaje Perine (Denver Broncos) – Because there is uncertainty on the health of Javonte Williams’s surgically-repaired knee, drafting both Denver running backs is an easily attainable strategy. Snagging Williams first, then handcuffing Perine would give fantasy drafters the most favorable schedule for running backs in 2023.

Of course, this approach offers plenty of risk. Williams tore multiple ligaments last fall. Meanwhile, Perine has never had an extended run as a starter. However, selecting both players in the new Sean Payton offense offers plenty of fantasy potential.

Plus, Denver gets an appealing slate of games to accrue that production. The Broncos get four games against opponents that…

WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACKS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

 

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

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