Running Backs

Tony Pollard
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

October 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished […]

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished second, thanks to his value in passing game (12/91). The fantasy market saw the first sign of explosiveness from Jahmyr Gibbs (27.60), lifting him to 26th in running back scoring. Gus Edwards (21.40) and Jonathan Taylor (21.40) also climbed the running back rankings. 

Over the last three weeks, Travis Etienne (27.47 FPPG) has been the highest-scoring running back, followed by Alvin Kamara (21.80 FPPG). Here are the top five running backs after seven weeks in fantasy points per game:

  • Christian McCaffrey (24.66)
  • Raheem Mostert (20.93)
  • Travis Etienne (19.71)
  • Kenneth Walker (17.43)
  • Kyren Williams (15.87)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Elite Tier Option

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,200)

After a downtick in snaps in Week 5 (73%) and Week 6 (58%), the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all 53 plays against Minnesota. His rushing yards had been short in three consecutive games (19/51/1, 11/43, and 15/45/1), with a step back in value in receiving stats (2/27, 3/9/1, and 3/51/1). McCaffrey has a touchdown in each game in 2023 (11 scores over seven starts). He’s averaging 21.6 touches per game.

Cincinnati is about league-average defending running backs (20.27 FPPG) despite allowing 5.0 yards per rush. The Titans had the most success (27/162/1 with four catches for 29 yards). Backs only have 20 catches for 141 yards on 28 targets due to a favorable schedule (CLE – 23/171/2, BAL – 27/269/0, LAR – 18/128/1, TEN – 22/220/0, ARI – 23/120/0, and SEA – 23/153/0). 

Brock Purdy is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion. Over the first five games (all wins), the 49ers averaged 33.4 points (35.7 at home – 14 touchdowns over 32 possessions). San Francisco’s running backs already scored 17 touchdowns. That gives McCaffrey a much higher ceiling than all other backs in the NFL, along with a high floor. A two-game losing streak and some home-cooking points to the 49ers regaining their scoring in Week 8, led by Christian McCaffrey.

 

 

Second-Tier Options

 

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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Raheem Mostert
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

October 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:

  • Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
  • Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
  • De’Von Achane – 102.70
  • Travis Etienne – 92.00
  • Kenneth Walker – 73.60

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)

Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches. 

Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.

With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…

 

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Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

October 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat […]

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.

The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:

  • Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
  • Raheem Mostert (90.40)
  • Kyren Williams (81.60)
  • De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
  • Kenneth Walker (73.60)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)

I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances). 

Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with…

 

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Tony Pollard
DFS

Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report

September 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running […]

Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report

Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report looks for the next huge game to insert into your daily lineups.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,700

Over the first three games, McCaffrey scored between 22.50 and 25.90 fantasy points in each matchup with PPR scoring. He extended his touchdown streak to 12 games but scored twice in only one contest. In addition, McCaffrey gained more than 100 yards in each of his starts (152, 116, and 119) while averaging 3.7 catches. Last season, he had 108 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches vs. the Cardinals while playing with Carolina. With San Fran against Arizona in other matchups, McCaffrey gained 185 yards with one score and 10 catches.

The Cardinals sit 25th defending running backs (75/325/1 with 15 catches for 82 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets). The Cowboys ran the ball well against them in Week 3 (33/185 – 5.6 yards per rush). Their pass rush (11 sacks) has been better than expected out of the gate, and Arizona played from the lead in all three of their games through the third quarter. 

McCaffrey is an absolute beast on a path to being the best running back in the game in 2023. The 49ers will ride him hard when needed (100% of their snaps in Week 2) while resting him when playing from a big lead. His floor has been three times his salary, putting him a second touchdown away from 30.00 fantasy points. The second half could be in the hands of Elijah Mitchell on many plays, so McCaffrey will need to get his scoring and yards early in the game. He is rated as the top running back…

 

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Travis Etienne - preseason pro
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

September 23, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre […]

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre Swift (27.10). Six other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five back in scoring in PPR leagues after two games:

  • Christian McCaffrey (48.40)
  • Kyren Williams (22.70)
  • Brian Robinson (42.50)
  • Tony Pollard (42.10)
  • Bijan Robinson (20.75)

 

There have already been three significant injuries to running backs (Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley), sending fantasy managers to an ultra-thin waiver wire to solve their injury woes.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report, WR Report, and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,400)

Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have played from the lead for about 150 minutes while never trailing in a game. They’ve struggled to run the ball in other matches (4.1 and 3.0 yards per rush) despite averaging 37 carries. Pollard has been on the field for 64% of their snaps in both contests, leading to 191 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches (42.10 fantasy points in PPR formats). He is well behind last year’s pace in yards per rush (3.6 – 5.2 in 2022) and yards per catch (5.4 – 9.5 in 2022). Pollard scored eight of his 12 touchdowns at home last season. 

The Cardinals defended running back well over the first two games (44/149/1 – 3.4 yards per carry). They’ve allowed two receiving scores to backs, with minimal damage in catches (8) and receiving yards (46). Arizona finished 27th in running back defense (27.39 FPPG) in 2022.

Pollard had seven rushes inside the five-yard line and 12 inside the 10 yards. I didn’t like to see Rico Dowdle on the field near the goal line last week on one series. But Dowdle failed to reach paydirt in his two chances. Pollard’s 32 touches in Week 2 were career-high. His salary in the DFS market requires an impact game. That is something he achieved only once in 2022 (149 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch). I see a correct game coming in big plays, giving him a chance to be the top running back of the week.

Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)

The fantasy market got a taste of the potential in Week 2 vs. the Packers. Atlanta gave him 24 touches compared to 16 by Tyler Allgeier, leading to a wide edge in combined yards (172 to 48). His snap count rose from 63% to 72%. Robinson had 39 touches on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Two of his plays gained at least 20 yards.

His first road start comes in Detroit, matching him against the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions played well vs. the run over the first two games (23/90 and 25/82/2 – 3.6 yards per rush), with 37.8% of their yards allowed coming from…

 

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Javonte Williams
Season Long – All Sports

Mid-Round Running Backs to Target

August 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value […]

Reading between the tea leaves is a big part of having success in fantasy sports. Understanding the direction of a player, either by his natural progression or his status coming off an injury, can lead to finding a potential value or a player to avoid. Finding the right mid-round running backs to target on draft day is an important strategy.

And speaking of strategy, the FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive, league-winning tips and advice to help you DOMINATE YOUR LEAGUE! This includes our No.1 rankings, sleepers, fades, and much more!


Identifying Mid-Round Value

In the early draft season, there are too many values at different positions in fantasy football. This creates almost a false ADP for someone jumping into drafts in August. The flow of players in June and July, before the general public catches up with drafting inventory, is built on different buying opportunities.

As training camp news flows and players start getting positive reviews, the ADPs begin to change. This tightens up the player pool and makes it more challenging to execute an early draft plan. Once this happens, the better drafters will make tradeoffs at specific points. This is to secure the most critical players for their fantasy team.

This thought process brings me to the running back options after the first 17 or 18 backs come over the table. Typically, in the BestBall formats that I have been drafting, the running backs come off in this order midway through the fifth round:

Running Backs to Target

Behind each player’s name is a skill set and a story, requiring the casual drafter to understand before deciding who to select. These running back aren’t equal, and a couple will become difference-makers in 2023. Here’s my quick back story on each player.

Kenneth Walker – Excellent rookie season showcasing explosive runs and scoring. He struggled in pass protection, and Seattle brought in competition to play on passing downs. In addition, Walker had a slight groin issue in mid-August that is progressing.

Alexander Mattison – Tempting player based on him expected to start for a high-scoring offense and his success at times as a fill-in for Dalvin Cook. He gained 3.7 yards on his last 208 rushing attempts and 6.8 yards per catch over 47 receptions. With Cook in New York, Mattison has a higher chance of being a wasted pick in the fifth round than an impact player. If he struggles out the gate…

 

WHO ARE THE TOP MID-ROUND RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET ON YOUR DRAFT DAY?

 

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kyle pitts
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Fantasy Football Fades

August 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Fantasy Football Fades Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players […]

2023 Fantasy Football Fades

Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.

For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.


Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders

There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”

Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats. 

Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…

WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?

 

FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…

 

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