2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Green Bay Packers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Jordan Love

Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel when waiting for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concerns with his accuracy. 

I don’t like how he slides in the pocket on some rollout passes, leading to a longer transition time to unload the ball. Love will struggle to break free from a tight pocket under pressure while lacking the release to get the ball out quickly and on time.

Based on 2019, Love didn’t belong in the top college QB conversation. He passed for 3,402 yards with 20 touchdowns, but 17 of his throws ended up in the hands of his opponents. Love also rushed for 175 yards on 81 carries while failing to score on the ground. His stock was trending up after his sophomore season in 2018 (3,567 passing yards and 39 combined touchdowns). However, Love saw his yards per pass attempt fall from 8.6 to 7.2 in 2019.

In his first chance to see game action with Green Bay in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Last season, Love saw limited snaps over four games (14-for-21 with 195 yards and one touchdown). 

Fantasy Outlook: Compared to 2022, the Packers have better receiving weapons at their disposal, and Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs also have a year’s worth of experience under their belt. Love is the 21st quarterback drafted in the high-stakes market in the latter third of June. I see 4,000 combined yards with questions about his ability to deliver passing scores in the red zone. His summer reports and the development of his receivers will determine his 2023 fantasy value.

Sean Clifford

Clifford went 32-16 over five seasons as the starting quarterback for Penn State. His best success in record came in 2019 (10-2) and 2022 (11-2). He improved his completion rate each year, highlighted by his senior year (64.4%). The Nittany Lions used him in RPO plays, leading to 388 rushes for 1,073 yards and 15 touchdowns despite gaining only 2.8 yards per carry. 

Fantasy Outlook: Clifford will compete for the Packers’ backup quarterback job with a minimal opportunity unless Jordan Love has an injury. 

Other Options: Danny Etling

— Running Backs —

Green Bay’s running backs have been active and productive over the past three seasons. They gained 2,638 combined yards in 2022 with 16 touchdowns and 88 catches or 447.80 fantasy points in PPR formats (26.34 FPPG).

Aaron Jones

In 2021, the Packers had Jones on the field for 620 plays (57.6%) over his 15 games, compared to 410 snaps by A.J. Dillon. He finished with a career-high in catches (52) with 391 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the downside, Jones averaged only 11.4 rushing attempts, leading to a step back in rushing yards (799) and rushing touchdowns (4). After a short game in Week 1 (22 combined yards with two catches), he played well over the following five weeks (529 combined yards with six touchdowns and 19 catches on 97 touches). However, his play and opportunity (119 touches) regressed over his final nine games (639 combined yards with four touchdowns and 31 catches) while missing two matchups with a knee issue.

Last year, Jones gained more than 1,400 combined yards for the third time while setting a career-high in catches (59). He was a much better player at home (932 combined yards with four touchdowns and 28 catches) than on the road (584 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches). Jones gained more than 100 yards in six matchups. Green Bay had him on the field for the same percentage of plays (57.6) while playing two games. 

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past three seasons, Jones ranked 7th (251.60), 11th (230.00), and 5th (258.90) in fantasy scoring in PPR formats. His value in the passing game helps his floor while also offering the explosiveness to deliver impact games when Jones hits a long scoring play. His downside risk comes from regression in rushing touchdowns (6 – 33 from 2018 to 2020) over the past two years. Despite his winning resume, Jones is the 16th running back off the board in June. I’ll set his bar as 1,200 combined yards with seven scores and 45 catches.

A.J. Dillon

Despite an RB2 role for the Packers in 2021, Dillion gained 1,116 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 34 catches on 221 touches (13 per game). Green Bay gave him the best opportunity (65 touches) from Week 10 to Week 12 (315 combined yards with three touchdowns and 13 catches) while gaining only 3.6 yards per carry. Dillon scored seven of his eight touchdowns over his final nine matchups (including the postseason). He finished with better-than-expected results in the passing game (34/313/2).

Last year, Dillion had a similar opportunity (12.6 touches per game) as his rookie season, but he gained 140 fewer yards and six less catches. From Week 2 to Week 11, Dillon failed to reach paydirt, leading to below 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in each matchup. His stock rose over a three-game stretch (17.80, 20.90, and 22.10 fantasy points). He scored six of his seven touchdowns over five games late in the year.

Fantasy Outlook: Dillon ranked 27th in running back scoring (167.60) in PPR leagues. His regression in yards per rush (5.3, 4.3, and 4.1) and yards per catch (10.5, 9.2, and 7.4) suggest questionable value this year due to…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE PACKERS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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