joe burrow

dak prescott ceedee lamb
DFS - NFL

Thursday Football Preview: Week 12

November 22, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Football Preview: Week 12 Happy Thanksgiving! Week 12 is always a special holiday slate. And 2023 is no different. We’ve got a full day’s worth of NFL and fantasy football action with three games. Additionally, the first Black Friday […]

Thursday Football Preview: Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving! Week 12 is always a special holiday slate. And 2023 is no different. We’ve got a full day’s worth of NFL and fantasy football action with three games. Additionally, the first Black Friday game is one day away. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Football Preview: Week 12 previews all three Thanksgiving games from a fantasy, DFS, and sports betting perspective.

Green Bay at Detroit

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Green Bay Packers 22 19 21 13 20
Detroit Lions 4 4 5 4 6

Open: DET -7.5, 44.5

Current: DET -8, 47

As always, the Detroit Lions kick off the holiday festivities. However, these aren’t the hapless Lions of years past. Dan Campbell’s squad has the second-best record in football and boasts a balanced, top-5 offense.

QB Jared Goff plays his best football at home and will be amped to rebound off of a subpar Week 11 showing. Meanwhile, Detroit has a pair of elite fantasy running backs primed to feast off of Green Bay’s 28th-ranked run defense.

The matchup isn’t as great for the pass catchers. However, Goff does have 10 TD strikes in six career games against the Packers. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored a touchdown or exceeded 100 receiving yards in all nine games this season. However, Green Bay allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, so it may take double-digit targets for that streak to continue.

For the Packers, Jordan Love is coming off of his two best games. Facing a Lions’ secondary that has yielded the ninth-most fantasy points to the position puts Love in a favorable spot to deliver another week of high-end QB2 numbers.

However, things look lousy for the ground game. Aaron Jones won’t play, leaving the backfield to A.J. Dillon. Dillon has dominated the backfield snaps and touches when Jones has been sidelined. But he’s been ineffective in that role, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and just one total reception in the three games Jones has missed.

Detroit is also allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson topped double-digit fantasy points against this secondary back in Week 4. Also, Jayden Reed has developed into a solid WR3/4 option who went 3/55/0 in that game.

TE Luke Musgrave is injured and will be replaced by a committee led by Tucker Kraft. The rookie is a cheap DFS option, only.

Green Bay is 2-5 straight up and against the number since opening the season 2-1. They’ve struggled on the road, losing four straight after winning in Chicago to open the 2023 campaign. And it’s been particularly tough against Detroit, who has covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 matchups with Green Bay.

Detroit has won four of their last five against Green Bay. Also, the Lions have covered in five straight Ford Field matchups hosting the Packers. Detroit beat Green Bay by 14 back in Week 4, but I’m not sure it will be that easy in the rematch. The UNDER has hit in five of Green Bay’s last…

How will Thursday’s games go?

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Joe Burow
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

November 15, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the Bengals versus Ravens slugfest.

The road through the AFC playoffs currently goes through Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s Ravens boast an AFC-best 7-3 mark and will be amped to right the ship after a last-second loss to Cleveland in Week 10. Baltimore’s +113 point differential is the best in the league and the club is preparing for this game as if it were a postseason contest.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off of an emotional home loss to a Texans team that Baltimore easily handled in Week 1. The Bengals got off to a rough start thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. But Zac Taylor’s had won four straight before Week 10. One of Cincinnati’s losses came to Baltimore, so the Bengals will be extra motivated to even the score.

Baltimore opened as a slight favorite. However, the line has shifted to the Bengals currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs. And the opening total of the game was 43.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals 27 16 32 23 20
Baltimore Ravens 4 20 1 5 5

It is quite unusual to see the Bengals sporting a bottom-tier offense. But most of those struggles can be attributed to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf strain. The Bengals scored one of zero touchdowns in three of their first four games- the main culprit in that 1-3 start.

However, things have drastically turned around since that 34-20 drubbing of the Cardinals. Burrow has been the fantasy QB4 over the last four games. Also, the running game has struggled all season. Cincinnati is running for an NFL-worst 74.8 yards per game. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Thursday.

While the Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offense, their performance has fallen flat. Todd Monken’s high-octane passing attack hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, Baltimore is back to being an old-school Ravens’ offense that leads the league in rushing.

Also, Baltimore’s defense ranks fourth overall while leading the league in fewest points allowed. The Ravens have won four of their last five when hosting the Bengals. Another victory would seriously hamper Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Finally, weather shouldn’t be a factor. Gametime temperatures are projected to be 52 degrees with less than a 10% chance of showers.

Cincinnati Offense 

Cincinnati’s passing game has improved at the same rate as Joe Burrow‘s recovery…

How will Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens game go?

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Justin Fields
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in […]

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level. 

Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (138.35)
  • Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
  • Jalen Hurts (126.70)
  • Kirk Cousins (122.10)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns. 

The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents. 

Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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Joe Burow
DFS

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 1, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bengals – 2 Over/Under: 47.5 The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 […]

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

  • Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
  • In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
  • The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
  • The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
  • His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
  • His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
  • He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

 

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
  • The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
  • Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
  • Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
  • Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

 

Ja’Marr Chase

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS break down of Week 1…

 

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Joe Burow
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook

July 10, 2023 Jody Smith

2023  Cincinnati Bengals Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023  Cincinnati Bengals Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook.

— Offense —

The Bengals threw the ball 60.5% of the time last season, leading to the seventh overall rank in offensive yards per game. Cincinnati attempted 38.1 passes, an increase of 14.4% from 2021. The Bengals would like more success running the ball to help close out leads in the fourth quarter. The strength of this team is Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, meaning many balls will be in the air again in 2023.

— Quarterback —

Joe Burrow

Coming into 2021, the Bengals appeared positioned to be a high-volume passing team based on Burrow’s 40.4 passing attempts over 10 games in his rookie season. Instead, Cincinnati finished 20th in passing attempts (555 – 32.6 per game) while taking 55 sacks (third-most in the NFL). Burrow overcame his below-par passing opportunity by completing 70.4% of his passes and gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Despite playing well over his first eight games (2,258 combined yards with 20 touchdowns), he failed to lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs after a dull five-game stretch (282/0, bye, 148/1, 190/1, and 300/1). However, for anyone surviving with Burrow in the fantasy postseason, his play was exceptional in Week 16 (525/4) and Week 17 (446/4). He finished the year with 4,729 combined yards and 36 touchdowns or 376.45 fantasy points (8th) in four-point passing touchdown leagues while missing one game.

Burrow ended last season with comparable combined yards (4,732 – 4,729 in 2021) despite having an increase in pass (86) and rush (35) attempts. He became more of a factor in the run game (75/257/5) while missing explosive plays by Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow gains 7.4 yards per pass attempt, with five fewer completions of 40 yards or more. Over his final four starts, he delivered only five passing touchdowns while averaging 234 passing yards. When at his best, Burrow gained more than 300 yards in five matchups (338/2, 300/3, 481/3, 355/4, and 375/3).

Fantasy Outlook: With 76 touchdowns over the past two seasons and a better opportunity on the ground, Burrow looks poised to fight for the top quarterback-scoring slot in the land. He can’t match Josh Allen’s or Jalen Hurts’s running ability, but Cincinnati has two elite wideouts who have yet to play an entire season of games together. Burrow may average more than 300 passing yards with a difference-maker floor in scoring if their offensive line creates a longer passing window. In the early draft season, he ranks fourth at quarterback. I consider him a player to fight for in 2023.

Other Options: Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning

— Running Backs —

The Bengals’ running backs combined for 2,068 yards with 18 touchdowns and 103 catches in 2022, leading to 26.12 FPPG in PPR formats. Despite their fantasy success, their backs continue to gain short yards per rush (4.0), something that has been an issue for three seasons. Joe Burrow’s willingness to use his backs in the passing game should be repeated going forward.

Joe Mixon

After a career season in touches (334), rushing yards (1,205), and touchdowns (16), Mixon missed a pair of games due to a concussion. He still finished 11th in running back scoring (239.50) in PPR formats, but 23.0% of his output came in one monster showing (211 combined yards with five touchdowns and four catches). His only other two games with more than 20.00 fantasy points came in Week 1 (21.50) and the divisional playoffs (20.30).

Over the past four seasons, over 899 carries, Mixon averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, with only 19 of his runs gaining 20 yards or more. He set a career-high in catches (60) and receiving yards (441) in 2022 despite losing snaps (257) to Samaje Perine (225) over his final seven matchups. 

Fantasy Outlook: Mixon gained more than 1,250 combined yards in four of the past five seasons. He has 29 scores over 36 starts, with Joe Burrow on the Bengals’ roster. Despite being in the NFL for six years, Mixon will start the season at age 27. The Bengals have a rising offense with a gear that hasn’t been hit yet. He ranks 21st in the early draft season in the high-stakes market, well below his ranking over the past two seasons (11th and 4th). Any investment in Mixon is a bet on the Bengals’ offense.

Chase Brown

Brown saw action over five seasons in college, leading to 4,079 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and 58 catches. His game progressed in his final two years at Illinois, highlighted by his 2022 season (328/1,643/10 with 27 catches for 240 yards and three touchdowns). Brown started the season with more than 100 rushing in nine matchups while receiving a minimum of 19 carries in all his starts. Over his final seven games, he earned his keep by volume of chances instead of big plays (4.7, 4.4, 4.7, 4.1, 4.3, 4.8, and 3.2 yards per carry).

Fantasy Outlook: A better offensive system and spacing should lead to Brown delivering long runs with the Bengals. He has speed in his back pocket, with various ways to make defenders miss. His potential intrigues me, so following the Cincinnati coach-speak, this summer should hint at his 2023 fantasy opportunity. I expect him to win…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BENGALS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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Joe Burow
Season Long - FFWC

2022 Fantasy Football Fades

May 23, 2022 Billy Muzio

Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to […]

The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to take down the grand prizes in their favorite tournaments. They are crossing off names one at a time, looking for value, looking for their favorite targets, and avoiding their 2022 fantasy football fades.

Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.

Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.

That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.  

Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.

Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.

Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts. 

Patrick …

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