Kansas City Chiefs Team Outlook
(Editor’s note: This is the free preview of the Kansas City Chiefs team outlook. If you already are a premium subscriber to FullTime Fantasy, click here for our premium expanded Kansas City Chiefs Team Outlook. The expanded team outlook also includes sections covering the coaching staff, offensive line, schedule, free agency, 2019 draft picks, defense & more.)
Chiefs Offense Outlook
The Chiefs had a 40/60 percent split in their run and pass plays last year while scoring 71 TDs. Kansas City ha stud young QB, but his receiving talent will take a step back if Tyreek Hill ended up being suspended. The loss of Kareem Hunt will hurt the success of the run game as well even with Damien Williams playing well as his replacement in 2019.
In the history of the NFL, only four QBs have passed for more yards than Mahomes did last year. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with 52 combined TDs and 12 Ints while rushing for 272 yards on 60 carries. His completion rate (66.0) was elite. Patrick passes for over 300 yards in nine games plus one game with over 400 yards. He delivered three or more TDs in ten games, which included five games with four TDs and two games with six TDs. Mahomes relied on two exceptional players (Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill) who combined for 190 catches for 2,815 yards and 22 TDs.
No other receiver on the roster had over 40 catches. Patrick’s success last year will make him the top QB selected in most Fantasy drafts in 2019. Behind Kelce, his receiving core is loaded with question marks if Hill misses any time. My gut says to fade based on his draft value even with elite talent. I’m going to set his early protections at 4,500+ yards with a chance at 35 TDs. Last year Hunt and Hill accounted for 19 of his 50 passing TDs.
Other Options: Chad Henne, Chase Litton, Kyle Shurmur, John Lovett
Williams benefitted from the Kareem Hunt suspension in 2018, creating a great opportunity in a high scoring offense. Williams started the last five games for the Chiefs in the regular season and the playoffs where he delivered four impact games (123 combined yards with two TDs and six catches, 140 combined yards with one TD and seven catches, 154 combined yards with one TD and five catches, and 96 combined yards with three TDs and five catches). Over his first four seasons in the NFL, Damien gained only 3.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yards per catch.
In 2018, the Chiefs’ RBs gained 2,602 combined yards with 26 TDs and 82 catches on 408 touches. There is a great RB opportunity here if Kansas City’s offense runs on as many cylinders as 2018. Williams ran with power and finish when given a starting opportunity while looking the RB1 part. Carlos Hyde will get touches, and he has pass-catching talent. A fair evaluation gives Damien a chance 1,500+ yards with double-digit TDs and 40+ catches.
After a productive season for the 49ers in 2017 (1,288 combined yards with eight TDs and 59 catches), Hyde struggled to make plays in Cleveland eventually leading to a lost job and a trade to the Jaguars. On the year, Carlos gained 604 combined yards with five TDs and ten catches. He gained only 3.3 yards per rush and 3.3 yards per catch. When at his best in 2016, Carlos gained 4.6 yards per carry. A veteran back with passing catching and goal line value. I expect him to be active while stealing some of the touches away from Williams.
Other Options: Darwin Thompson, James Williams, Marcus Marshall
In his two seasons as a starter for the Chiefs, Hill developed into an impact player. He broke through for 75 catches for 1,183 yards and seven TDs in 2017. His greatness pushed even higher with Patrick Mahomes behind center last year. He finished 2018 as the second highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with 87 catches for 1,479 yards and 113 TDs on 137 targets. Tyreek had six impact games (7/169/2, 7/142/3, 7/117/2, 10/215/2, 8/139, and 5/101/1). Hill came to the NFL with a domestic violence issue haunting him in college only to have his slate wiped clean last summer.
Unfortunately, his decision making at home led to another domestic issue. At this point, Tyreek can’t be trusted until Fantasy owners get a cleaner update from the NFL’s league office. If Hill is cleared to play, he flies back up draft boards. Up: 100+ catches for 1,500+ yards and double-digit TDs. Down: Released by the Chiefs leading to a lost season.
Over the last two seasons, Watkins had played for two different high scoring offense. His role/opportunity was better for the Chiefs, but Sammy missed six games. In 2018, he had the highest catch rate (72.7) of his career, which led to 40 catches for 519 yards and three TDs. Most of his production came in four games (6/100, 5/55/1, 6/78, and 8/107/2). With the Rams, Watkins did show scoring ability (eight TDs in 15 games).
Sammy is a former first-round draft pick who flashed in his sophomore season in the NFL (60/1047/9). At age 26, he is just reaching the prime of his career while needing to stay healthy. Based on the greatness of Mr. Mahomes, I have to be interested in his potential upside while expecting him to be discounted on draft day. Possible 70+ catches for 1,000+ yards and a run at ten TDs if he plays 16 games even if Tyreek Hill is on the field for a full year.
Other Options: Demarcus Robinson, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter, Bryon Pringle, Davon Grayson
Kelce keeps getting better, which was helped by the upgrade in QB last year. Travis has over 1,000 yards and over 80 catches in each of his previous three seasons highlighted by his electric year (103/1336/10 on 150 targets) in 2018. Kelce in finished with five games with over 100 yards receiving (7/109/2, 8/114, 5/100, 10/127/1, and 12/168/2) and eight games with seven catches or more. Last year Kelce was the 15th highest scoring skill player while creating over 100+ Fantasy points edge in PPR leagues over the 5th highest scoring TE and more than a 150 point edge over the TEs ranked nine through 12. A special player who will have another great opportunity in 2019. More the same while expecting his most significant growth this season coming in TDs.
Other Options: Blake Bell, David Wells, Deon Yelder, Joe Fortson, Nick Keizer
Over his first 29 games of his NFL career, Butker made 89.9 percent of his field goals with success from 50 yards or more (6-for-9). In 2018, he led the NFL in extra points (65), but he did miss four tries. His value as a kicker fade last season due to explosiveness by the Chiefs’ scoring TDs in the red zone. In 2017, he led the NFL with 42 field goal attempts in only 13 games, but that number fell to 27 last year. Top three kicker for me while understanding the needs Kansas City to regress in their TD success in 2019.
To read the EXPANDED KANSAS CITY CHIEFS TEAM OUTLOOK, you’ll need a premium subscription. There’s way more info about the team’s draft, free agency, defense, schedule and profiles for every single relevant player on the team. Plus you unlock access to all of FullTime Fantasy’s season-long content. Join us now!