Season Long – All Sports

Week 17 NFL Player Props

Week 17 NFL Player Props Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. […]

Week 17 NFL Player Props

Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. After a midseason lull, we are once again on a roll with three consecutive weeks of profit. Our Week 17 NFL Player Props aims to keep the winning ways going.

As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 17’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action with a pivotal matchup between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys on Saturday and no Monday night game this week. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will close out the week on Sunday night at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 17 NFL Player Props and continue our profitable NFL season.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

After producing just 14 points against the Raiders in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be very motivated when they take on a Cincinnati Bengals franchise that has had their number in previous regular season matchups. And despite Kansas City’s struggles on offense last week, the one silver lining was that Mahomes was able to find a lot of running space. The signal caller registered a season-high 10 rushing attempts and tallied 53 yards in the Chiefs’ Christmas Day loss. Nine of those rushing attempts were on quarterback scrambles when Mahomes was under duress from Maxx Crosby and Malcom Kounce.

This week, the Chiefs’ atrocious offensive line will have to block Trey Hendrickson. With Isiah Pacheco likely sidelined, I’m anticipating Mahomes using his legs yet again out of necessity as the Bengals look to bring pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs face a Bengals defense that plays man-to-man coverage at a Top-10 rate. With the defensive backs zoning in on the receivers, there will be fewer eyes on Mahomes if he looks to take off from the pocket. The Bengals have surrendered a lot of yardage to mobile quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy averaged 50+ rushing yards per game against the Bengals this season.

Mahomes ranks sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season and has topped this line 10 times this season already. Given the struggles of the offensive line and Cincinnati’s defensive scheme, this looks like a solid wager. Take the Over.

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Patrick Mahomes
Season Long – All Sports

Week 14 NFL Player Props

Week 14 NFL Player Props After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports […]

Week 14 NFL Player Props

After our first cold streak of the season, we bounced back with a 5-2 record in Week 13. The money is flowing in and we are now 39-30 (+9.15 Units) on the 2023 season. Sports betting is all about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. Now that we’ve had another profitable week, let’s see if we can continue to ride the way and make some more cash in Week 14. 

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 14’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every single one of the 32 teams was in action, two teams will get some rest on their bye weeks: the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals. That said, we still have 15 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown. 

Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season. 

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Mahomes has not seen his rushing yard prop line this high all season. In fact, he didn’t see a line this high last season either. Last week the line was 20.5 and the highest it’s been over the last two years was 27.5. So why is the line so high this week against a tough Buffalo Bills defense? Perhaps it is because Mahomes is having the best rushing campaign of his career (27.6 yards per game) and has even eclipsed this inflated line in three of 12 games. But it’s not like the Bills are especially vulnerable to quarterback rushing yards. Buffalo is allowing 19.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve only allowed one opposing quarterback to eclipse this line in 12 games this season. 

That said, the one time the Bills allowed a quarterback to eclipse this line was last week when Jalen Hurts turned 14 carries into 65 rushing yards. But that stay is even misleading considering 27 of those yards came in overtime. 

Mahomes will obviously do Mahomesesque things in this battle between two AFC powerhouses but I expect the Chiefs to lean on the passing game, particularly with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the start and just because Pacheco is out doesn’t mean Andy Reid is going to call designed quarterback runs this close to the end of the season when an injury to Mahomes would derail the Chiefs’ entire Super Bowl hopes. 

The one scary thing about this prop is that in five starts against the Bills over his career (two in the postseason), Mahomes has tallied 192 rushing yards on 34 carries. However, I believe those stats are inflated because Mahomes is going to be more inclined to rush in playoff games when the Chiefs have nothing to lose. In a regular season game this far out from the postseason, I anticipate Andy Reid wanting to protect his All-Pro quarterback as much as possible. 

The line is quite high due to Mahomes’ success against Buffalo but the Bills will keep him in check on the ground. Patrick Mahomes is not Jalen Hurts so don’t expect another 60+ yards from this quarterback on the ground. Patrick has proven that he is much more comfortable moving the chains with his arm rather than his legs. Take the UNDER. 

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DFS

Week 14 Quarterback Report

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.91)
  • Jalen Hurts (27.23)
  • Dak Prescott (24.43)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.62)
  • Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills. 

Buffalo showed more risk

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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Patrick Mahomes
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 Last week’s Bears/Commanders tilt has a lot more offense than projected. That’s a good thing for fantasy football. Speaking of offense, this week’s AFC West battle offers much potential. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6

Last week’s Bears/Commanders tilt has a lot more offense than projected. That’s a good thing for fantasy football. Speaking of offense, this week’s AFC West battle offers much potential. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 looks at the Chiefs vs. Broncos game from a fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting lens.

Andy Reid’s defending champions are off to another fast start. Kansas City sits atop the AFC West standings with a 4-1 record. That includes winning four straight after losing in the first Thursday night game of 2023.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are reeling. Sean Payton’s squad sits in the basement of the division at 1-4. There are rumblings that change is on the way in Denver. The Broncos defense has been atrocious and this has been a one-sided rivalry.

Because of that, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites. However, we’ve seen the over/under drop from 51 down to 47.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Denver Broncos 15 13 19 5t 10
Kansas City Chiefs 6 7 12 5t 9

Both teams are above average on offense. However, that is where the similarities end. Denver has allowed 181 points. That is the sixth-most in NFL history through the first five games.

Patrick Mahomes boasts an 11-0 record against the Broncos. Conversely, Denver has allowed an NFL-worst 13 touchdown passes in 2023. It is easy to see why Vegas likes Kansas City in this…

How will Thursday’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game go?

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Patrick Mahomes
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1

Welcome to the 2023  NFL season! To kick off another glorious campaign, the NFL schedule makers did us a solid by matching up two of the league’s top offensive clubs. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the upstart […]

Welcome to the 2023  NFL season! To kick off another glorious campaign, the NFL schedule makers did us a solid by matching up two of the league’s top offensive clubs. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the upstart Detroit Lions. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks down all you’ll need to know for your fantasy football lineups.

With Travis Kelce ailing, there is some uncertainty about this game. That has caused some books to remove this contest altogether. However, Kansas City is still a 6.5 -point favorite. The total dipped a point to 52.5.

 

Subsequently, we will update our preview when there is clarity. Until then, here is FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Detroit Lions 4 8 11 4 3
Kansas City Chiefs 1 1 20 1 1

* above ranks are from the 2022 season

Starting in Week 2, teams playing on Thursday are disadvantaged by playing on short rest. However, that doesn’t apply in Week One. Both high-powered offenses are well-rested. This game still boasts the highest over/under total for the slate.

The fantasy football ramifications for this one can’t be understated. Both the Chiefs and Lions fielded top-5 offenses last season. Also, fantasy football rosters are peppered with skill position players from both squads.

Andy Reid is noted for success with extra time to prepare. Reid’s teams are 27-4 after a bye. The Chiefs have won eight consecutive season openers under Reid and are 9-1 overall in Week 1. In those eight victories, Kansas City has averaged a whopping 36.4 points per game.

That is going to be a real problem for Dan Campbell’s Lions. Detroit hasn’t won in Week 1 since 2017. However, that hasn’t been all bad from a fantasy perspective. Detroit might be 0-2 under Campbell in Week One, but the Lions have averaged 34 points per game.

With that history and the abundance of skill position talent on both sides, the 2023 season should get off to a bang. Subsequently, this is a game with major fantasy ramifications.

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Chiefs game go?

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Patrick Mahomes
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

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Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Patrick Mahomes

After dominating the fantasy world in his first season as a starter for Kansas City in 2018 (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns), Mahomes ranked 7th (334.55 – two missed games), 4th (429.80 – 15 starts), 4th (427.25), and 1st (482.30) in fantasy scoring in four-point scoring formats. He has a 64-16 career record in the regular season, with five post-season trips (11-3 – two Super Bowl wins and a loss).

In 2021, Mahomes set career-highs in completions (436), pass attempts (658), rushing attempts (66), and rushing yards (381). His season started with success over four games (1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns). Other than Week 10 (406/5), he lost his luster from Week 5 to Week 14 (269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts). However, Mahomes did regain his stride throwing the ball in the playoffs (404/5, 378/3, and 275/3).

His high floor continued last season, leading to almost identical value in completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set a career-high in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with a high floor in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark. 

Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).

Fantasy Outlook: Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board in 2023 after his impactful year. His success relies on Travis Kelce being a beast and Kansas City developing their young wideouts. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice have plenty of talent while lacking proven resumes in the NFL. Mahomes will find a way to average 300 combined yards with a floor of 35 touchdowns.

Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Chris Oladokun

— Running Backs —

The Chiefs’ running backs had the same number of targets (112) over the past three seasons. Their stats fell in a tight range in 2021 (90/824/3) and 2022 (89/826/12), except for touchdowns. Kansas City ran the ball better last year (351/1,617/14 – 4.6 yards per rush). Their running backs combined for 2,443 yards with 26 touches and 89 catches (28.78 FPPG).

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco flew up draft boards last August after flashing his speed (4.37 40-yard dash) in training camp. He has an aggressive running style, but his lack of patience and vision sometimes leads to dead ends. His first instinct is to run outside while his pass protection skills need work. Pacheco will have low value in the passing game early in his career.

Kansas City added him with the 30th selection in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over four seasons at Rutgers, he rushed for 2,442 yards on 563 carries with 18 touchdowns. He caught 47 of his 68 targets for 249 yards and one score. Pacheco gained only 4.3 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per catch. 

Over the first half of his rookie season, the Chiefs gave him a minimal opportunity, leading to 210 combined yards with one touchdown and 13 catches on 47 touches. His best outcome came in Week 1 (12/62/1). Kansas City featured him on early downs (163/830/5) over their final 12 matchups with only 16 catches for 182 yards. He gained 5.1 yards per rush while averaging 12.27 fantasy points in PPR formats down the stretch. Pacheco failed to score more than 16.50 fantasy points in any game.

Fantasy Outlook: Kansas City will give him 15 touches a game this year, but he’ll have short value in the passing game in most weeks. I expect about 1,300 yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and about 30 catches. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Pacheco is the 22nd running back selected. 

Jerick McKinnon

After gaining momentum in 2017 with the Vikings (991 combined yards with five touchdowns and 51 catches), injuries cost McKinnon all of the following two seasons with the 49ers. San Francisco gave him 47 touches over their first four games in 2020, leading to 295 combined yards with four touchdowns and 13 catches. They phased him out of the running back rotation in most weeks over their final 12 games (277 combined yards with two touchdowns and 20 catches).

The Chiefs only gave McKinnon 25 touches in 2021, leading to…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CHIEFS IN 2023?

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Joe Burow
Season Long - FFWC

2022 Fantasy Football Fades

Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to […]

The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to take down the grand prizes in their favorite tournaments. They are crossing off names one at a time, looking for value, looking for their favorite targets, and avoiding their 2022 fantasy football fades.

Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.

Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.

That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.  

Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.

Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.

Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts. 

Patrick

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