Tyreek Hill

tyreek hill
DFS

Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

November 18, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The wide receiver story from last week had two chapters. The first was the high-scoring battle between the Lions and Chargers, leading to Keenan Allen (11/175/2) posting his second monster showing of the year […]

Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The wide receiver story from last week had two chapters. The first was the high-scoring battle between the Lions and Chargers, leading to Keenan Allen (11/175/2) posting his second monster showing of the year while Amon-Ra St. Brown (8/165/1) finished fourth in fantasy points (30.50). The second verse came via the right arm of Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb (11/165/2) fell ten yards behind Allen, giving him the runner-up prize for the week. The rise of the Cowboys’ passing attack led to Brandin Cook (9/173/1) finishing third for the week. Six other wideouts scored between 21.00 and 26.50 fantasy points in PPR formats. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 10 weeks:

  • Tyreek Hill (25.03)
  • Keenan Allen (22.84)
  • A.J. Brown (22.61)
  • CeeDee Lamb (22.13)
  • Stefon Diggs (20.28)

Also, before we get into the Week 11 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Elite Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)

The Dolphins’ passing offense sputtered in two challenging road games vs. Philadelphia (216/1) and Kansas City (193/1) in Week 7 and Week 9. But Hill still had a floor of eight catches while working closer to the line of scrimmage (11/88/1 and 8/62 – one 20-yard catch ~ 7.9 yards per reception). From Week 5 to Week 8 (8/181/1, 6/163/1, 11/88/1, and 8/112/1), he scored in each game, leading to 30.10 FPPG in DraftKings scoring. His top three scores in fantasy points (44.50, 30.70, and 32.10) came in odds weeks of the NFL schedule. Hill has double-digit targets in four consecutive starts (10, 15, 13, and 10).

Las Vegas continues to play better than expected defending wide receivers (6th – 109/1,318/7 on 173 targets). No team gained more than 175 yards from their wideouts. Their defense allowed 22 touchdowns (11 passing) over 105 possessions, with quarterbacks gaining 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Their success has been helped by a favorable pass schedule (Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito, and Zack Wilson). Amon-Ra St. Brown (6/108) is the only wide receiver to gain more than 100 yards. 

The Raiders will have their hands full defending the run vs. Miami, inviting some winning big plays off play-action passes for Hill. Their top three cornerbacks for Las Vegas allowed a high catch rate. But they’ve minimized the damage in big plays. Hill’s quickness and ability to get open should shine through in this matchup. I expect a minimum of one long score, most likely against Marcus Peters (29/287/3 on 32 targets – per PFF) due to his gambling mentality. On the downside, Hill must score 37.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket. Bet on his floor (26.70 fantasy points) while understanding that Miami is a much better offense at home.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,200)

Over the past three weeks, Dak Prescott upped his passing game, leading to 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 36.7 passes per game (31.7 over his first six starts). As a result, Lamb has three consecutive elite games (12/170/2, 11/191, and 11/165/2), thanks to a spike in his targets (14, 16, and 14). He finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in wide receiver scoring over this span. That lifted him to fourth (199.20 fantasy points) for the year. He is on pace to catch 128 passes for 1,981 yards and nine touchdowns. Last year, 24 of his 107 catches gained at least 20 yards. Lamb already gained 20 yards on 22 receptions in 2023.

Carolina has the fourth-best…

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Jordan Addison
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 14, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 […]

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 in wide receiver scoring in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill (8/181/1) was the only other wideout to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Eight wide receivers finish with 20.00 to 28.00 fantasy points. DeAndre Hopkins posted his best game (8/140), but he ranks 37th after his five starts with the Titans. Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers after five games:

  • Tyreek Hill (132.50)
  • Keenan Allen (103.45 – four games)
  • Stefon Diggs (120.00)
  • Puka Nacu (115.60)
  • Justin Jefferson (109.80)

Also, before we get into the Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)

Hill has been on the winning Millionaire Maker ticket at DraftKings in Week 1 (11/215/2), Week 3 (9/157/1), and Week 5 (8/181/1). He delivered lower results (5/40/1 and 3/58) in his other two matchups vs. division opponents. He is on pace to catch 122 passes for 2,213 yards and 17 touches, which would be career-highs in all categories. His rhythm last season over the first eight games and his start in 2023 leads to his best outputs coming every other week. Hill already has four completions of 40 yards or more.

The Panthers rank seventh in wide receiver defense (49/642/4 on 74 targets). Justin Jefferson (6/85/2) posted the best game against them, while DK Metcalf (6/112) is the only wideout to gain more than 100 receiving yards. Carolina’s success vs. wide receiver is somewhat masked by their poor run defense, leading to quarterbacks averaging only 27.6 passes. CB Donte Jackson has risk defending the long field (11 catches allowed for 202 yards and one touchdown on 17 targets ~ 18.1 yards per catch per PFF), and CB CJ Henderson (13/173/1) allows a high catch rate (81.3).

Hill brings a double jeopardy skill set for defenses to defend. His quickness is elite, setting up many easy catches over the short areas of the field. In addition, he can beat a secondary over the top in a blink of an eye. So far this year, I haven’t had Hill enough or used him in the correct team build. He is the player with the highest ceiling in many weeks, meaning a ride without him can lead to losing tickets more often than not. Rinse and Repeat.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,300)

The success of Chase in Week 5 (15/192/3 on 19 targets) was the first game in his career where he paired volume of chances with a long scoring play. In his two impact games (8/201/1 and 11/266/3) in his rookie season, he had 10 and 12 targets in those matchups while gaining 20 yards or more on eight plays. His only two catches of 20 yards or more this season went for 43 and 63 yards. Chase is now on pace to catch 150 passes for 1,618 yards and 10 touchdowns. His one strike is his yards per catch (10.8 – 12.0 in 2022 and 18.0 in 2021).

Seattle has the worst defense in the league against…

 

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Matt Stafford
Season Long – All Sports

Week 5 NFL Player Props

October 5, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, […]

Week 5 NFL Player Props

 

Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, since we tripled up on the Justin Fields over, our 3-4 Week 4 record doesn’t tell the full story; We actually profited cash for a third consecutive week. Just about a quarter of the way through the regular season, we are now 13-8 (+6.9 units). 

After a surprising first few weeks to the season where studs weren’t performing and there were some unfamiliar names leading certain position groups, things are finally beginning to shake out as one would expect. Justin Herbert has been the top quarterback, Christian McCaffrey has been the top running back, Justin Jefferson has been the top wideout, and T.J. Hockenson has been the top tight end (Travis Kelce missed the season opener but is averaging more points per game than Hock). The cream always rises to the top.

Fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props and continue our trend of profitable NFL weekends.

 

Josh Allen OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)

After a disappointing season-opening performance against the New York Jets in which Allen turned the ball over four times in an upset loss, Buffalo’s signal-caller has turned it around and has been the QB1 over the last three weeks. Over that span, Allen has racked up 812 passing yards (270.7 per game) while going 72-for-94 (76.6% completion percentage) and throwing eight touchdowns and one interception.

He has risen to the top of the MVP race in large part due to his dominant performance in the Bills’ Week 4 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins in which he tallied 320 passing yards and four touchdowns, while also running one into the end zone. Allen has eclipsed this line in two of his previous three outings and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense.

Also, the Bills are averaging 6.1 yards per play this season, which bodes well for Allen in this London-based contest. Allen doesn’t have a particularly good history against the Jaguars. But one of his previous two games came against them back in 2018 when they had an elite defense. Back in 2021, he surpassed this line against Jacksonville. Look for Allen to continue his MVP campaign…

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

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