Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing
Leading the NFL in rushing is a career highlight for most running backs. It also leads to banner fantasy football totals. However, most RBs see a precipitous decline in production the season after topping the league in rushing yards. This running back regression after leading the NFL in rushing has happened in 22 of the past 25 seasons and paints a worrisome fantasy outlook for the league’s reigning rushing king.
Many different factors can lead to a sudden dropoff. As my friend Gary Davenport first divulged in his Curse of 370 and revisited for 2025, heavy usage is a key contributor to predicting running back regression.
Other variables like coaching changes, strength of schedule, supporting cast, and age also play a role. Before I take a deep dive back through the past 25 seasons, let’s recap all the running backs that have led the NFL in rushing this century and find some key takeaways.
NFL Rushing Leaders 2000-2025
Over the past 25 seasons, 20 different running backs led the NFL in rushing yards. Only LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry have done it more than once. You could also doff your proverbial cap to Edgerrin James, who ascended the leaderboard in 1999, becoming the first player since Eric Dickerson (1983-1984) to lead the league in his first two pro campaigns.
In all, league-leading backs averaged 340 carries for 1,716 rushing yards (4.98 yards per carry) and scored 15.7 total touchdowns. That averaged out to just under 349 fantasy points (PPR), or 21.9 points per game.
The splits were 15 rushing champs from the AFC, while 10 represented the NFC. The NFC East produced five, while the NFC South is the only division that has not had an NFL rushing champ in the last 25 years, nor has there ever been one from that division. The Saints’ George Rogers led the league with 1,674 yards back in 1981, but New Orleans was then part of the NFC West.
Leading the league in rushing is more than an individual honor. Coaching, schemes, quarterbacking, and the offensive line all play a pivotal role. There are also numerous other elements that play a role in a team’s ability to manufacture a rushing leader.
Contributing Factors for Success
Health
One of the most important factors for posting big numbers is staying healthy. From 2000-2015, no running back who led the league in rushing missed a single game. Even the backs who missed one were rested by their team in the season finale.
Derrick Henry is the only running back in the last 25 years to lead the league in rushing but miss a game due to injury.
Henry missed Week 16 of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury and returned to action in the season finale to rush for a season-high 211 yards to top the league.
Every other running back in the past 25 seasons to lead the league in rushing has stayed healthy for every game or sat out the regular-season finale to rest for the playoffs.
Winning Team
Speaking of playoffs, teams that produced the leading rusher averaged 9.96 wins versus 6.2 losses, making the postseason in 18 of the 25 seasons (72%). However, only three of those teams made the Super Bowl, and the only squad to win is the reigning champions, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles.
Having a winning record also leads to more friendly game scripts for the rushing attack. Teams nursing second-half leads tend to rely on their lead backs to grind down the clock.
Age
The wear and tear that NFL running backs accumulate takes a toll. 20 of the 25 (80%) rushing leaders were under 28 entering the season in which they finished first.
Looking at the averages, RBs had a mean age of 25.4 in those seasons. They also averaged 4.6 years of experience. Only two backs (Curtis Martin in 2004, Adrian Peterson in 2015) were older than 28. No rusher who was 29 when the season started has led the NFL in rushing since Barry Sanders did it back in 1997.
| NFL RUSHING LEADER AGE DISTRIBUTION | ||
| AGE | OCCURANCES | RATE |
| 21-23 | 6 | 24% |
| 24-26 | 10 | 40% |
| 27-28 | 7 | 28% |
| 29+ | 2 | 8% |
Skill Set & Fantasy Production
Volume is king in fantasy, and rushers who accumulate enough touches to post elite numbers are typically three-down workhorses. 24 of the 25 RBs posted top-5 fantasy finishes. The only back who did not, Adrian Peterson in 2008, caught only 21 passes for 125 yards in 16 games. In the other 24 seasons tracked, running backs averaged 44 receptions annually.
Derrick Henry is an outlier, but part of the formula for RB success in today’s high-octane NFL is to stay on the field on passing downs.
However, the inability to do just that, stay on the field, is one of the main reasons we see noteworthy running back regression the year after they lead the league in rushing yards.
Immediate Regression in the Next Season
While winning a rushing crown is a notable accomplishment for a pro running back, there is usually a staggering dropoff in play the following season. 88% have seen an immediate dip in effectiveness, and it is usually a significant decline.
Only three running backs since the 2000 season have posted better fantasy numbers the year after they led the NFL in rushing yards.
As for the other 22, they averaged a 36.8% decline in fantasy points the following season.
Notable Declines
Running backs have always been a hot commodity on draft day. Particularly three-down workhorse backs coming off a rushing crown who finished the previous campaign at an average rank of RB 2.76.
But fantasy draft history is loaded with first-round RB busts who stumbled after they broke out the previous season.
Running Backs who led the league in rushing in 2000-2024 finished as the RB 2.7 in PPR leagues, but plummeted to an average of RB22.3 the following season.
• Edgerrin James (1999-2000) led the league in his first two seasons. However, James tore his ACL in Week 7 of his third season, and it took three years for him to approach those gaudy numbers again.
• In 2004, Curtis Martin, 31, became the oldest back in NFL history to lead the league in rushing. The next season, he dropped from 4.6 YPC to 3.3, suffered a 56.4% decline, and was out of the league.
• The only veteran with three appearances on this list, Adrian Peterson, had the distinction of having the worst single-season decline (95.9%) I tracked, thanks to a Week 2 torn meniscus. However, Peterson is also one of the three rushers here who had an increase (23.9% in 2009) in fantasy scoring prowess after running for a league-best 1,760 yards in 2008.
• 2024 Christian McCaffrey is still a sore spot.
Reasons for Running Back Regression
Injuries
The primary reason for running back regression is injuries. Leading the league in rushing takes a lot of touches, leading to many punishing hits. It also increased the odds of getting hurt trying to avoid those tackles.
Dating back to 2000, running backs who led the league in rushing averaged 15.96 games played per season, but that dwindles to 12.08 games the following campaign. That’s a 24.3% drop in games played. But playing time isn’t the only measurement to fall off. These metrics also drop in the next season:
📉 Rushing attempts fall from 340.28 to 240.88 (-29.2%).
🔽 Rushing yards drop from 1,715.9 to 1,025.4 (-41.2%).
〽️ Yards per carry dip from 4.98 to 4.16 (-16.5%).
⚠️ Total touchdowns (rushing and receiving) go from 15.68 to 9.46 (-39.7%).
🚨 PPR points decline from 348.82 to 218.88 (-37.3%).
Removing Players Who Missed Half the Season
Anytime we use averages that involve games missed due to injuries, lengthy absences can skew the numbers. In this case, Edgerrin James (2000), Maurice Jones-Drew (2012), Adrian Peterson (2016), Derrick Henry (2021), and Christian McCaffrey (2024) missed more than half a season.
Even after removing these five players from the totals, there is still a large decline in fantasy scoring the season after leading the NFL in rushing yards.
When not factoring in those lengthy injuries, running backs still finished, on average, RB12.6, with a 27.0% drop in production.
Contracts & Holdouts
After a breakout campaign, it’s common to see running backs hold out while they seek a lucrative long-term contract extension or trade. In 2025, James Cook missed OTAs months after tying for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns.
However, the longer these holdouts go, the more practice time the players miss. This is often accompanied by nagging injuries that linger throughout the season and torpedo a player’s effectiveness.
Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing in 2011, missed training camp, and broke his foot in Week 6 after being far less effective in Jacksonville’s first five games.
Even the aforementioned Eric Dickerson wasn’t immune to this. After opening his career with two straight rushing crowns, Dickerson held out in 1985, missed two games, and dropped 43.5 rushing yards per game.
In 2015, the Cowboys only offered DeMarco Murray a four-year, $12 million deal after he rushed for a league-best 1,845 yards. Philadelphia swooped in to steal a key contributor from their division rivals, offering Murray a five-year deal for $42 million. However, this backfired, as Murray’s play fell off a cliff, and he was traded after one year.
Applying This to 2025
So, what does this all mean for this season, and how can we use this data to project which running back will lead the league in rushing in 2025?
Fading Saquon Barkley
It all came together for Saquon Barkley in 2024, who is easy to root for as one of the NFL’s good guys. After the New York Giants spurned Barkley’s desire to remain a “Giant for life,” he joined the division-rival Eagles and had a historic season.
Barkley posted the best numbers of his career, culminating in a career-best 125.3 rushing yards per game, All-Pro honors, his first rushing crown, and a Super Bowl title. He even showed how selfless he was by sitting out the regular-season finale, despite being just 101 yards from breaking Dickerson’s all-time NFL record of 2,105 yards.
That performance assures Barkley will be a top-3 pick in nearly every fantasy draft this summer. However, if history is an indicator, a repeat performance is not in the cards.
Overuse
I opened with a nod to the Curse of 370, but several running backs have eclipsed 400 touches in a season, and the results are jarring.
Christian McCaffrey (twice), Joe Mixon, and Derrick Henry all missed multiple games the season after they eclipsed 400 touches. The Edgerrin James and DeMarco Murray regressions mentioned above came the year after those backs topped 440 touches. LaDainian Tomlinson (2003) is the only running back in the past 40 years to top 440 touches and not suffer a significant decline the following season.
Including the playoffs, Barkley racked up 482 touches last season.
Per Statmuse, that workload is the 10th-most all-time for an NFL running back. In seven of the nine seasons that saw a running back top 480 touches (including playoffs), their play dropped off the next year. Often dramatically, as fatigue and injuries took their toll.
Injury History
Speaking of injuries, Barkley has a checkered history.
In 2019, he missed three games with a sprained ankle. The following year, Barkley tore his ACL and sprained his MCL in Week 2 and missed the remainder of the season. From 2021-2023, he missed four games with separate ankle ailments. In all, Barkley has missed multiple games in four of his seven seasons.
There’s no denying Barkley is tough. He played through numerous other injuries in his seven seasons. But coming off such a heavy workload is worrisome.
Tush Push
With the Brotherly Shove back in play for 2025, it’s feasible to expect touchdown regression for Barkley. Although he tied his career-best with 15 scores in 2024, only four of those touchdowns came inside the opponent’s five-yard line.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts ranked second in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns inside the five.
It is difficult to project a running back to accumulate that many long-distance touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. And without those gimmie scores from the stripe, Barkley will be challenged to approach last year’s TD totals. For a player being drafted near the top of Round One, those touchdowns are crucial.
If we conclude that Saquon Barkley is a candidate for running back regression in 2025, who are the running backs who could lead the league in rushing in 2025?
Candidates to Breakout in 2025
Let’s recap what criteria help us predict who can lead the NFL in rushing. The numbers indicate he needs to be younger than 28, possess a three-down skill set, be durable, and play for a contending squad.
While few backs check all those boxes, there are some standouts.
Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) – Entering his third season, Robinson is on the precipice of a breakout campaign. He ranked third in the league in rushing last season (1,456), played the fourth-most snaps, and is entering his prime. Additionally, Robinson ran for 354 yards and six touchdowns in Michael Penix’s three starts. The Falcons were 8-9 last season and project to contend in the competitive NFC South.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) – The Lions are among the top teams in football, and Gibbs is coming off a sophomore campaign that saw him post the overall RB1 numbers. Gibbs played all 17 games and produced 1,929 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. He led all rushers with 3.93 yards after contact per attempt and ended the season with four straight games with over 100 rushing yards. David Montgomery‘s presence is a big obstacle, but if Gibbs’s momentum carries over, the Lions could ride their 23-year-old superstar to a rushing title and appearance in Super Bowl LX.
Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders) – Jeanty doesn’t turn 22 until December. He has all the tools to be an immediate impact weapon and landed in a great spot with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly. The Raiders have little depth, so Jeanty is a good bet to see a considerable workload. He’s also a good receiver, and the Raiders will be significantly better with Geno Smith and the improved coaching staff.
Long Shots
Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) – Although Taylor isn’t as young as some of the other contenders, he is in his prime at 26. 40% of the leading rushers in the last 25 years have been between 24 and 26. Taylor already boasts a rushing crown (2022) and rarely leaves the field. However, quarterback concerns are a factor for the Colts, and durability is a major worry for Taylor. He has missed multiple games in three consecutive seasons.
Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneer) – Irving took over as Tampa’s main ball-carrier in the second half of his rookie season. All three of his 100-yard outings came after Week 13. Irving turns 23 in August and is expected to be the lead back on a Tampa team that ranked third in offense in 2024.
Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens) – If anyone can defy the odds at 31, it’s Henry, who rushed for 1,921 yards last season. Henry is a physical marvel who has shown no signs of breaking down. However, history is not on his side, as he would be the oldest running back in history to lead the league in rushing.
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