Week 1 is officially in the books and it’s time to evaluate some of the surprise poor performances around the […]
2023 Fantasy Football Fades Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players […]
Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.
For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”
Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats.
Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…
WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?
FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…
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While it is still early in the 2023 fantasy football draft season, FFWC best ball draft season is underway. Using the average draft position from these drafts allows us to recognize tendencies and find the early 2023 fantasy football fades […]
Of course, things can and certainly will change over time. However, these preliminary drafts allow savvy high-stakes players the opportunity to exploit values. Conversely, there are also players that appear to be targeted prematurely.
Let’s take a look at some of the early 2023 fantasy football fades to avoid in these May FFWC drafts. And while we’re on the subject, now is a great time to adopt a Dynasty Football World Championship squad.
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Running Backs
Breece Hall (New York Jets) RB11 – There is a lot to love about Breece Hall in dynasty leagues. However, being drafted near the 2/3 turn as the RB11 seems a bit high in redraft leagues. While Hall was the RB7 in terms of fantasy points per game in 2022, he tore his ACL in October.
Very often we see running backs take a full year to return to their pre-injury form. In most cases, the first season after a torn ACL results in a drop in efficiency and effectiveness. Even if Hall is able to suit up for Week 1, the Jets could spell him more with Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight, who are both capable runners.
Although Hall is a promising young back loaded with fantasy upside…
What other 2023 fantasy football fades should you avoid?
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While it’s always popular to target fantasy football sleepers, avoiding those trap players is just as vital. FullTime’s 2022 fantasy football busts will help you avoid targeting those potential disappointments on the final draft weekend. In addition to helping you […]
In addition to helping you recognize specific players to draft or avoid, FullTime’s 2022 staff predictions and high-stakes advanced ADP are also valuable tools to utilize on draft day.
We’re finally into September and Week One can’t kick off soon enough! Here are our 2022 fantasy football busts to help you prepare for this final week before another glorious season of NFL football begins. Also, don’t forget to check out reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio’s 2022 fantasy football fades 2.0.
Bookmark FullTime Fantasy’s Customizable 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – Burrow is a great real-life quarterback, but is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues. He is going to run into three issues; the offensive scheme, an improved defense, and the division he plays in. The Bengals run a slow offense and with an improved defense will look to run even more this year, and being in the AFC North he will run into bad weather and grind it out games…
What other players should you avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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Compiling a championship fantasy football roster isn’t just about knowing what sleepers to target. Avoiding potential traps is also vital and Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0 gives FullTime Fantasy Members exclusive insight from 2021’s No. 1 draft ranker. Earlier […]
Earlier this summer Billy wrote up his initial fade list for 2022. As the preseason has progressed, there are even more players that he plans to avoid at their current ADP.
Focusing on the all-important pass catchers, here is Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Like Joe Burrow, I am out on Tee Higgins at his current cost. Higgins is selected as WR #13 and pick #26 in FFWC drafts. You are buying Higgins based on his playoff performance and will be disappointed with his 2022 output. You can insert my argument for Burrow here as everything applies, but let’s dive into Tee Higgins’s independent stats and efficiencies. Higgins finished as the WR#22 or worse in fantasy points per game in 10 of his 14 starts during the regular season. In those 14 games, he had 4 or fewer receptions in 5 games and 62 yards or less in 8 of 14. He was WR#71 in contested catch rate at 25%, WR#77 in true catch rate at 78.7%, WR#31 in target separation, WR#40 in total route wins (#52 vs. man), and WR #36 in routes ran. Don’t get me wrong, Higgins is a good receiver, but not WR#13. Pass on Higgins in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds in your drafts…
What other players are Billy Muzio fading in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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This time of year, Twitter is ablaze with hot takes and speculation about this year’s biggest sleepers. Knowing which of […]
Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to […]
Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.
Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.
That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.
Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.
Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts.
Patrick …
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Everywhere you look there is certainly no shortage of fantasy football strategies, tips, and advice. Most of this advice comes from a good place but doesn’t offer anything unique. But when the advice comes from some of the best in […]
But when the advice comes from some of the best in the world, the fantasy football community takes notice. Kimra Schleicher is the first female Fantasy Football World Champion and offers the rare opportunity to get into the mind of the best in the world by offering up her picks for her top breakout, bust, sleeper, comeback, and stash & cash players for the 2021 fantasy football season.
Some of her most impressive calls were Alvin Kamara as her late round stash and cash in his 2017 rookie season (when both Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram were in town) and last year called WR Calvin Ridley her breakout player of 2020 as he went on to post 90 catches 1,374 yards and 9 TDs.
Just take a look below at how deadly accurate her predictions come to be!
Her 2020 Prediction for Breakout Player of the year…
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The long wait is finally over and the fantasy football draft season has arrived. One of the best ways to compile a championship-contending roster is to know which players might exceed their current ADP and who might disappoint. When fantasy […]
When fantasy football fans can target those values and avoid the busts, they give themselves a huge competitive advantage over their less-prepared league mates.
Here are some players that make great bargains, and others to be wary of as we head into the 2021 fantasy football season.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Miami Dolphins (ADP 216.2, QB23)
As a rookie in 2020 Tagovailoa failed to impress fantasy owners. While he wasn’t awful in real life, the explosive plays and big numbers just weren’t there. With that said, he was set up to fail last year. To start, he was coming off major hip surgery, and most believed he would essentially believe redshirted his rookie season, so the guy wasn’t even supposed to be playing. He was unable to have an offseason or preseason beyond rehabbing and Covid rules only compounded that. Then he was playing behind an improving but very young offensively line and had subpar weapons to throw the ball to.
The reports out of camp so far in regard to Tua have been nothing short of outstanding. Even his harshest critics have been impressed with his growth from year one. His anticipation, mobility, and grasp of the offense have drastically improved. The team also went out and got him the weapons he needed. They drafted Alabama star Jaylen Waddle in the first round and added former Texans star, Will Fuller. Last year prior to being suspended for the final five games of the season, he was the overall WR8 in fantasy football. Pairing those two with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki is a dangerous group of pass-catchers…
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Senior Fantasy Baseball Expert Shawn Childs alerts you to stay away from these bust candidates this coming MLB season!
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