Fantasy Football Fades
Everyone loves targeting upside players in fantasy drafts. However, knowing which players are likely to be overdrafted is just as important. Whether you call them fades, busts, or add them to a ‘do not draft’ list, avoiding these risks at their current ADP is crucial.
Here are my fantasy football fades for the 2025 season.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (New York Jets)
Fields has always been a better fantasy option than a real quarterback due to his rushing prowess. But I have concerns about how that will play out with a new, defensive-oriented staff. Fields is also quick to tuck the ball and run, which harms the rest of New York’s fantasy assets. That run-first instinct also gets Fields injured a lot. Simply too much risk to draft Fields in QB1 range when there are plenty of safer options.
Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
I love the addition of Ben Johnson and the supporting cast, but Williams was awful as a rookie. Among full-time starters, he ranked dead last in sack rate (10%) and was next to last in adjusted completion rate. Too many of those sacks were on Williams, and he struggled throughout camp to adjust to Johnson’s new offense. It’s too early to call Williams a bust. I think he’s being overdrafted by 3-4 spots.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
Speaking of Johnson, his departure will impact Detroit’s offense dramatically. Goff has outplayed his ADP in the last three seasons. But Detroit plays six outdoor games, and Johnson’s departure makes it hard to trust Goff as anything more than a QB2 with weekly upside.
Running Backs
James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
Getting Cook signed and active for some of the preseason was a positive development for Cook’s value. I’ve moved him up several spots in my rankings. However, he’s still one of the top touchdown regression candidates and missed valuable reps throughout August. Cook is still a decent RB2, but he’s nearly always off the board well before I would pull the trigger in the late 4th or 5th round.
Joe Mixon (Houston Texans)
If this were a ‘do not draft’ article, Mixon would be featured in that as well. The Texans have been far from transparent about Mixon’s knee. What we do know is that Mixon will open the season on the IR, meaning he’ll miss a minimum of four games. However, what’s concerning is that DeMeco Ryans has said there is no timetable for Mixon’s return to practice. Mixon is outside my top 50 running backs.
Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns)
This second-round rookie is another middle-round option that I want nothing to do with. Judkins isn’t even signed and is facing a potential length suspension. There are rumors that he could even attempt to re-enroll at college to re-enter the 2026 NFL Draft. Even if he were signed, you have to question what kind of shape Judkins would be in. I don’t think he’s going to make any significant fantasy impact in 2025.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)
Another candidate for touchdown regression, McLaurin, also missed time due to a contract impasse. That’s been resolved, but McLaurin will also have a hard time replicating his 16 end zone targets or 57% air yards share (3rd) with Deebo Samuel now in the lineup.
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 41 touchdowns last season. But Flowers only caught four of those. Jackson is another massive regression candidate, and Flowers’ upside is capped. He lacks TD upside and will struggle to produce consistent WR3 upside in a run-first Ravens’ offense. Teammate Rashod Bateman is another fantasy football fade I’m avoiding.
Non-Ricky Pearsall WR (San Francisco 49ers)
Our thoughts on Ricky Pearsall are well documented. And I love Brock Purdy as one of the top QB values. However, I’m not that interested in the rest of San Francisco’s receiving corps. Jauan Jennings, coming off a breakout season of his own, has missed the entire preseason with a holdout. Jennings is also dealing with a calf injury. Speaking of injuries, Brandon Aiyuk will open the season on IR, meaning he will miss at least the first four games of the campaign. And coming off a torn ACL, he’s likely to be limited when he does return. This points to a massive target share from Pearsall and TE George Kittle, but makes the rest of San Francisco’s pass-catching corps unappealing.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)
Forget the off-the-field stuff. Kelce will be 36 this season, but has been in decline for at least three years. His yards per catch, YAC, yards per route run, and forced missed tackles have all dipped significantly. Worse, he’s no longer making plays downfield, and Kansas City may be limiting his usage in the regular season to save him for another deep playoff run. It all points to a player who is a fringe TE1, not the TE6 that his current ADP dictates.
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