2025 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview
If one needs an example of the impact that changing toxic culture can have, reference the 2024 Washington Commanders. In the first full year (second season) away from Dan Snyder, the Commanders took astonishing steps, going 12-5 and reaching the NFC championship game. After inheriting Snyder’s last staff, new owner Josh Harris hired GM Adam Peters, went against the grain and gave Dan Quinn another shot, and nabbed Kliff Kingsbury to run the offense. The results speak for themselves.
Paramount for Washington’s turnaround was hitting on QB Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels was sensational in Year One, throwing for 3,568 yards, tossing 25 touchdowns, and accumulating the second-most QB rushing yards (891) with an additional six scores. Daniels is firmly in the top tier of signal-callers and has vaulted to the head of the Dynasty class.
The Commanders did not draft a running back before Round 7, so Brian Robinson Jr. looks like a good value pick. Robinson posted his usual numbers in 2024, but saw an increase in rushing touchdowns (8) while missing three games. Robinson ceded a lot of targets to Austin Ekeler, who is back in his age-30 season. Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez also return as reserves. In all, Washington ranked third with 154.1 rushing yards per game. Robinson and Ekeler are fine middle-round targets.
Daniels formed a formidable connection with WR Terry McLaurin, who broke out with 13 touchdown receptions. What’s scary for Scary Terry is that there is still room for more. McLaurin dipped below 120 targets for the first time since his rookie campaign. Even a 10 percent boost would put McLaurin in the top five of fantasy wideouts. However, we don’t expect a repeat of those gaudy TD numbers. He’s closer to WR10 than WR6, where he finished last season.
The Commanders acquired Deebo Samuel from San Francisco. Samuel adds a new wrinkle to Kingsbury’s offense and is a massive upgrade over Olamide Zaccheaus. It will be interesting to see how Samuel is employed in the attack and how many touches he takes away from McLaurin and the backs. Noah Brown returns as WR3, but keep an eye on fourth-round Virginia Tech rookie Jaylin Lane, a twitchy speedster with massive potential.
Washington re-signed TE Zach Ertz after his impressive TE8 showing. Eriz ranked second on the team with 91 targets. He’ll be 35 in December, but Ertz ran a route on a career-high 92.2 percent of his snaps. His ADOT and contested catch rates also increased. Father Time is looming, but Ertz still looks like a solid TE1.
Fantasy Grade: B+
In last year’s preview, we mentioned Daniels had top 5 upside. That’s precisely what happened, as Daniels showcased his immense, dual-threat value. Washington ranked 4th in pace of play, and Daniels posted 12 QB1 weekly finishes. He ranked 2nd at the position in rushing (891) and red-zone totes (39). However, he also proved to be a legitimate passing weapon, boasting a 25-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio and leading the entire NFL in completion rate versus man coverage (78 percent). Daniels was a league-winning mid-to-late round pick last season, but the price has risen significantly. Still, he’s one of the top QBs to target.
Washington is running it back in 2025. Having added no competition before Round 7, Brian Robinson’s role as the Commanders’ lead back keeps him in the RB3 conversation. Robinson will cede some change-of-pace work to Austin Ekeler, but he will take the majority of early-down carries. He ranked 20th with 44 red-zone touches, resulting in eight scores. Also, Robinson chipped in 20 receptions with only one drop. Washington was 5th in the league with 30.8 rushes per game, so B-Rob will have ample opportunities to contribute RB3/flex numbers.
The days of Austin Ekeler earning 20 touches are over, but he can still contribute as an RB3/4. Metrics highlight a decline in his efficiency: a 2.55 yards after contact per attempt and 10 forced missed tackles on 77 carries. His opportunity share stood at 41 percent, with a snap share of 55.6 percent, indicating a reduced role in the Commanders’ backfield. Despite these changes, Ekeler’s receiving prowess remained evident, maintaining a significant role in the passing game. However, with the emergence of Brian Robinson Jr. as the primary rusher, Ekeler’s fantasy value has shifted.
Terry McLaurin put together his most productive season yet in 2024, ending the year as the WR6 overall with 82 receptions, 1,110 yards, and a career-high 13 touchdowns. He flourished with rookie Jayden Daniels at quarterback, finishing as a top-24 fantasy wideout in 69 percent of his games, tied for third-best among all receivers. His breakout campaign was fueled by exceptional touchdown efficiency, and he posted the highest contested catch rate of any WR in the past six seasons. While some regression in scoring is expected, McLaurin remains a steady option in an improved Washington offense. He’s a reliable WR2 with top-20 upside.
As more time passes, Deebo Samuel’s breakout 2021 campaign looks like an outlier. Samuel finished as the WR3 that season with 1,405 receiving yards and 14 total TDs. His 2023 season was also strong, but Samuel has battled nagging injuries and a decreased involvement as a rusher. Now, he’s dealing with a new team, system, and quarterback. Granted, Washington isn’t a downgrade, but the Commanders funneled their offense through Terry McLaurin. And with Jayden Daniels, Samuel would, at best, be fourth in line for carries. Kliff Kingsbury is creative enough to utilize Samuel as a weapon, but can he get back into WR2 territory?
ADVICE: Brown will enter camp as the favorite to secure Washington’s WR3 role. The Commanders ranked 7th in offense last season, so Brown will have opportunities to post a handful of usable fantasy outings. He can be rostered as a WR6/7 in deeper leagues.
After battling injuries for two years, Zach Ertz re-emerged as an elite fantasy option in Kliff Kingsbury’s Washington offense. Ertz avoided setbacks and ran the sixth-most routes (436) at the position. His 91 targets ranked 8th and were the most he’s absorbed since he finished as the overall TE5 in 2021. This offseason, Ertz re-signed a one-year, $6.25 million deal to return to the Commanders. There is added target competition from Deebo Samuel, but Ertz is a superb fit in Washington’s spread offense, making him a quality fantasy target.
Austin Seibert’s 11 points per game led all kickers last season. Now, Washington will go with Matt Gay as their place kicker. Gay converted 31-of-37 field goals and all 33 of his XPs for the Colts in 2024. Washington’s offense will put Gay in a good position to post top-10 fantasy numbers as long as he retains the job.
The COMMANDERS finished 24th in fantasy scoring last year. They racked up 42 sacks and forced 17 turnovers, but Washington allowed the third-most rushing yards (137.5 yards per game).
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