Oddsmakers List Veteran WR To Lead NFL In Receptions
The latest in our series of highlighting players that are witnessing noteworthy recognition by oddsmakers results in focusing on an emerging fourth-year wideout who is shockingly being predicted to lead the NFL in receptions in 2024.
SERIES: Big Expectations For Rookie RB | Elite RB Vegas is Fading | RB Ascending Up Early Draft Boards | WR Who May Struggle To Fulfill ADP value
A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook.
The Best of the Best
Despite being listed by oddsmakers in the top two spots to lead the league in receiving yards (1,375.5) and touchdowns (9.5), CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill do not hold that honor in the receptions market. Instead, that distinction belongs to Lions star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Fresh off career highs in receptions (119), yards (1,510), and touchdowns (10) the talented wide receiver is being power-ranked by oddsmakers stunningly ahead of both Lamb and Hill. Brown, who finished tied for second last season with Hill hauling in 119 receptions, owns the highest betting projection for catches in 2024 at 107.5.
Lamb, who led the NFL last season with 135 catches, is listed at 105.5 followed by Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson all owning a betting demand of 100.5.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN 70-YARD TD
📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/rUyhJjUi0c— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Obviously, fantasy managers are high on the high-powered Lions offense investing premium draft capital in ASB in early FFWC drafts. The elite WR1 owns an ADP of 5.3 / WR4 never coming off the board lower than 1.8.
ASB, a near consensus Top 5 pick in re-drafts, as well as New York Jets star wideout Garrett Wilson, joined exclusive company after impressive 2023 campaigns. Prior to last season only four wide receivers since 2000 had recorded 175-plus catches and 2,000-plus receiving yards across their first two seasons: Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, and Jaylen Waddle. It should be no shock to see both ASB and Wilson come off the board early in the first round of drafts.
VEGAS ODDSMAKERS PREDICTING ELITE PRODUCTION
A deeper dive reveals that ASB scored double-digit fantasy points in 16 of 17 regular season games last season on the strength of nine 100-plus yard receiving efforts as well as 13 games of six-plus receptions. Only one word describes that: ELITE.
Oddsmakers, who initially installed ASB with a receiving yards betting projection of 1200.5, have adjusted the 24-year-old wideout up to a betting demand of 1250.5 at DraftKings. While only moving his projection minimally, the most highlighted move involves listing ASB ahead of Lamb, Hill, and Chase in the overall receptions betting market at 107.5.
“Anytime a player is listed above the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase, in any betting market, fantasy managers need to take note.” – Frankie Taddeo
While ASB has displayed he can “flip or leap” defenders on the field, he still has not been able to leapfrog Lamb or CMC in any recent Circa Championship draft this summer – finding a peak of 1.3 overall.
Amon-Ra St. Brown flips his way to a three-possession lead ‼️
📺: #DENvsDET on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/kw1DwqjVEs— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023
ASB has proved to be extremely durable playing at least 16 games in all three of his seasons in the NFL and his production has increased every year. His receptions have improved from 90 to 106 to 119, his yards from 912 to 1,161 to 1,515, and his receiving touchdowns from 5 to 6 to 10. That trajectory tells us Jared Goff’s top target is primed for new career highs especially if he receives 145-plus targets for the third straight campaign.
ASB (28.6%) led the team in target share followed by tight end Sam LaPorta (20.9%). After those elite receiving weapons there was a massive drop off as no other Lions player finished above 12%. That trend should continue again in 2024 as the current Detroit wideout depth chart consisting of Kalif Raymond, Jameson Williams, Tre’Quan Smith, and Donovan Peoples-Jones pose no real threats to derail his alpha target demand.
Last season the Lions ranked 5th in points scored (461), 3rd in total offense (6,712 yards), 2nd in offensive touchdowns (57), and fourth in points per drive (2.42).
Fantasy managers, picking in the middle of the first round of drafts, should invest in shares of ASB as he will be playing in a prolific Top 5 NFL offense in 2024 – more importantly, owning the majority of the target share.
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