Second-Year RB Ascending Early Draft Boards
THIS RB1 WENT OFF THE BOARD NO. 1 OVERALL IN THE LATEST CIRCA CHAMPIONSHIP DRAFT!
Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values.
Thus far in our summer series here at Fulltime Fantasy, we have highlighted several players that have witnessed significant betting and fantasy football draft position movement. We dove into a rookie running back expected to make a major impact, a wideout who may struggle to return fair ADP value as well as an elite running back being faded by oddsmakers.
A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook.
Year Two Breakout
The latest installment leads us to second-year Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. The former Texas Longhorns standout gained 976 rushing yards (57.4 per game) in his rookie season while adding four rushing touchdowns.
Bijan Robinson’s rookie season stats:
• 17 games
• 976 rushing yards
• 4.6 yards per carry
• 58 catches
• 487 receiving yards
• 86.1 scrimmage YPG
• 8 TDs#Falcons pic.twitter.com/cepuXuVkGp— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) July 13, 2024
In the air, Robinson hauled in 58 receptions for 487 receiving yards and four additional touchdowns. A deeper dive reveals that Robinson finished tied for second with New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara for the most RB Targets (86) behind only Jets RB Breece Hall (95). The dynamic threat accomplished the impressive feat of finishing ahead of the consensus No. 1 pick Christian McCaffrey (83) in this category – despite questionable usage by the Falcons coaching staff.
Fantasy managers are investing premium draft capital in Robinson in early FFWC drafts. The former Doak Walker Award winner owns an ADP of 5.7 / RB2.
In the latest Circa Championship draft on 7/13, Robinson was selected No. 1 overall for the first time this fantasy season. He lept over CMC and CeeDee Lamb for the coveted top spot.
Vegas Oddsmakers & Early Drafters in Agreement
New Falcons Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson recently revealed Robinson will be featured in a “CMC role” in his sophomore campaign. Vegas insiders and the fantasy community both love the Falcons’ new staff.
“Bijan’s such a talented player,” said Zac Robinson. “He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then anyway we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.”
#Falcons OC Zac Robinson on Bijan Robinson being used like CMC:
“Bijan’s such a talented player. He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.” pic.twitter.com/6x01Gwp3Cv
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024
Oddsmakers, who initially installed Robinson with a rushing yard betting projection of 900.5, have raised the tailback up to a betting demand of 1000.5 at DraftKings. The boys behind the betting counter clearly view the comments by the new Falcons staff as more than just “Coach Speak”.
“In Circa Championship drafts held in June, I was able to grab Bijan at the back end of Round 1. That late-round value is a thing of the past as the electric talent is now a near-consensus Top 5 pick. ” – Frankie Taddeo
Despite the presence of Tyler Allgeier, who often vultured goal line work last season, oddsmakers believe Robinson will receive heavy red zone volume.
Robinson, who came off the board No. 1 in the latest Circa Championship draft, has witnessed the juice on his rushing touchdown projection of 6.5 steam from -105 to -130.
To infinity and BIJAN. 71 yards!
📺: #ATLvsNO on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/8rd1LDxUcL— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
This headline posted on X by the NFL last season sums up my 2024 fantasy football outlook for Robinson in superb fashion:
“To Infinity and BIJAN in 2024.”
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