2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB
Before drafting each fantasy football season, I need to be in tune with the player pool. I then must understand the drop-downs at each position within fantasy drafts. That’s the key that drives my 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB.
There are all different kinds of fantasy football leagues across the country. For the casual player, most formats are trading with a playoff system at the end of the year. In most cases, the best team doesn’t necessarily win each season. The goal is to draft a team with enough depth and upside to compete for the league title.
Each drafter will be dealt a different hand as they will pick from various draft slots. Without a top draft selection, most fantasy managers will have to be creative in gaining edges at different positions to compete for a league or an overall title.
Quarterback Target Points
Before you sit at the draft table, one of the first steps is understanding what you need out of every position to be a contender. So, I will go through every position on a fantasy roster and give you the average player stats to help you see what it takes to have an edge at each lineup slot. The data listed is for 12-team leagues using the criteria below.
- This scoring system awards four points for quarterback passing touchdowns with 0.05 points for each passing yard.
- Each rushing and receiving yard is worth 0.10 points.
- Each reception is worth one point. Each rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six points.
The tables below show the average scores for the top 12 options at each position over the last four seasons.
The first part of the equation is learning the gaps and edges of each position. Here are the average position scores for all 11 starting roster slots in the Fantasy Football World Championships over the last four seasons:
These scores can be used as targets for each position. A winning team must have an edge at multiple starting lineup slots to win their league. Their roster needs depth, along with success managing their team through bye weeks and injuries. The goal in this format is to score more than 145 fantasy points per week. If you do this, you should finish in the top four in your league with a chance to win a championship. However, the best teams in this competition will average more than 165 points.
The medium scoring for all 11 roster slots in the World Championship over the previous six seasons came to 137.41 (2017), 144.60 (2018), 144.82 (2019), 149.09 (2020), 149.08 (2021), and 146.06 (2022).
There has been a spike in rushing touchdowns in 2021 (532) and 2022 (505) after progressing higher from 2016 to 20219 (443, 380, 439, and 447). The change in replay rules led to many more players being downed inside the two-yard line on passing plays. That led to more scoring chances in close on the ground. In addition, there has been an influx of rushing quarterbacks over the past five seasons.
The success of mobile quarterbacks in the run game also led to a rise in overall yards per rush in 2018 (4.42), 2019 (4.32), 2020 (4.41), 2021 (4.33), and 2022 (4.46).
The final total in passing touchdowns reached an all-time high in 2020 (871). They fell dramatically in 2022 (750) due to the weakest backend quarterback pool over the last 11 years.
Here’s a look at the best quarterback options over the previous four seasons:
In 2022, the average quarterback in the NFL passed for 234.38 yards per game with 21.41 completions on 33.34 pass attempts. That also resulted in 1.38 touchdowns and 0.77 interceptions. These stats translate into under 19.22 fantasy points per game in leagues that award four points for each passing touchdown and 0.05 for each yard passing.
The overall number would be slightly higher as most quarterbacks gain some value with their rushing production. The top 12 quarterbacks over the last four years averaged between 22.42 and 25.32 fantasy points per game. 2017 delivered the lowest output (20.94) over the past 11 years.
Impact of Rushing Production
In 2020, the quarterback position was front-loaded. That season, six quarterbacks scored 419 fantasy points or more. Fifteen quarterbacks finished with over 300 fantasy points. Josh Allen led the way with 457.60 fantasy points. The average score (25.32) for the top 12 quarterbacks was the highest in the history of fantasy football.
The top end of the quarterback pool remained strong in 2021 and 2022. That resulted in four players each season scoring at least 410 fantasy points.
Over 17 games last season, the average top-12 quarterback production delivered 376.70 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Patrick Mahomes (482.30 fantasy points) knocked Josh Allen (457.35) off the top quarterback-scoring podium. But Allen has been the best quarterback in the NFL from 2020 to 2022 in fantasy scoring.
The quarterback position is certainly dynamic. But it is one where a weaker quarterback can match a top quarterback over short periods in league championship rounds. This is why many drafters in this type of format will wait to draft a quarterback. By doing this, they will likely be more potent at other starting roster slots.
I’ve never been a good matchup manager at the quarterback position, leading me to draft a more reliable quarterback and ride him out throughout the season.
Of all the positions on a fantasy team, the quarterback position will offer the most points in the free-agent pool. In addition, a back-end quarterback could put up 20-plus fantasy points in any given week, pointing to another reason to wait on the QB position.
A team that punts the quarterback position will give up three to 10 fantasy points per week to the top four teams in the league. I know the goal for someone that waits on the quarterback position is to find the next breakout player. In this strategy, it is vital to roster more quarterback depth on draft day to give a fantasy team more outs when setting their lineup each week. The downside is the week-to-week mistakes in decision-making by starting the wrong player.
Here’s a look at the result of the top 12 backup quarterbacks over the last four seasons:
Final Observations
If a drafter decides to select a quarterback early, he is looking for an edge at the position, plus he wants to eliminate the decision-making process each week. A fantasy manager who waits for a midrange quarterback looks to gain an early edge at running back or wide receiver.
For someone who wants to push the envelope at quarterback, he hopes to gather enough depth at other positions to have an advantage when replacing injured players or even covering his best players on bye weeks.
It works best when waiting to draft a quarterback when there isn’t a wide gap in scoring at the position. In 2010, the leading quarterback in this scoring system finished with only 356.70 fantasy points. Tighter quarterback gaps allow a drafter to have an advantage in depth at running back, wide receiver, and tight end by waiting to draft a quarterback.
Last year, the QB2s had the worst average (15.35 FPPG) over the previous 11 seasons, leading to a massive gap in scoring compared to the elite quarterbacks. Some shortfalls came from injuries to Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Based on 2023 Fantasy Football Team & Player Projections, there are opportunities after the big four quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow). Also, I posted my top five value quarterbacks to help drafters looking for options after the best players come off the board.
Lastly, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing.
Finally, are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2023 Fantasy Football World Championships.
