Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 17 Quarterback Report

December 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed […]

Week 17 NFL Quarterback Report

Joe “Waiver Wire” Flacco was the best quarterback in the land in Week 17 (30.50 fantasy points), thanks to a career game by Amari Cooper (11/265/2). The runner-up prize went to Derek Carr (29.15), followed by Josh Allen (28.35), Jalen Hurts (27.45), and Justin Fields (27.20). Twelve other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 26.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five players after 16 weeks by scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (26.95)
  • Jalen Hurts (26.09)
  • Dak Prescott (23.03)
  • Lamar Jackson (22.76)
  • Brock Purdy (22.11)

Using our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Over the past six weeks, Hurts has one passing touchdown or fewer in five starts. He held value by his success in the run game (59/260/8). His completion rate (60.3%) over this span is well below his first nine games (68.9%). Despite his direction, Hurts has already set career highs in completions (327), passing attempts (499), and combined touchdowns (35). When at his best, he scored more than 30 fantasy points in three matchups (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50).

The Cardinals rank 25th in quarterback defense (21.94). Only the Giants (380/3) scored more than 30.00 fantasy points. The Rams (229/4) and 49ers (262/4) delivered the most success in touchdowns over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks rushed for 285 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries. Five offenses rushed for more than 175 yards.

The Eagles played better offensively in Week 16 (471 combined yards with three touchdowns, four field goals, and 33 points), pointing to success in scoring this week. I sense I have Hurts under-projected this week as he looks poised to have a 4X floor in this upside matchup...

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DFS

Week 16 Quarterback Report

December 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report Last week, 16 quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Baker Mayfield (34.05 fantasy points) had centerstage on the podium in Week 15, followed by Jared Goff (33.90) and Aidan […]

Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report

Last week, 16 quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Baker Mayfield (34.05 fantasy points) had centerstage on the podium in Week 15, followed by Jared Goff (33.90) and Aidan O’Connell (28.40). Dak Prescott (8.40) was the bust of the week, crushing fantasy teams looking to win league and overall championships. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 15 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (26.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (26.00)
  • Dak Prescott (23.09)
  • Brock Purdy (23.05)
  • Lamar Jackson (22.60)

 

Using our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 16 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,500)

With three Monday games and two matchups played on Saturday, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes are off the main state on Sunday. The Bills dominated the time of possession vs. Dallas, thanks to their best success running the ball (49/266/3) in years. Prescott posted his worst game (134/0) passing the ball since Week 1 (143/0). Over his seven road starts, he averaged 233 combined yards with only nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His only playable game away from Dallas came vs. the Eagles (388/3).

Miami moved to 16th defending quarterbacks (18.64 FPPG) after holding the Jets to 2.80 fantasy points in Week 14. Eight other quarterbacks scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy while having their most significant failure in two matchups (BUF – 334/4 and PHI – 300/3). The Dolphins held opponents to fewer than 190 yards passing in five of their past seven games. Only one team has more than two passing touchdowns.

Prescott is one of the top projected quarterbacks on the main slate on Sunday. But his play on the road doesn’t support his current salary. If Miami plays from the lead with Tyreek Hill back in the starting lineup, Dallas will need to throw the ball to win. Not ideal, but I can’t dismiss a bounce-back game.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000)

Despite having two top 10 wideouts (Tyreek Hill – 97/1,542/12 and Jaylen Waddle – 71/064/4), Tagovailoa ranks 12th in

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brock purdy
DFS

Week 15 Quarterback Report

December 14, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report Lamar Jackson (35.80) led the league in fantasy points in Week 15, lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (295.10). Desmond Ridder (29.85) posted his best game of the season, placing him second for the […]

Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report

Lamar Jackson (35.80) led the league in fantasy points in Week 15, lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (295.10). Desmond Ridder (29.85) posted his best game of the season, placing him second for the week, followed by Jake Browning (27.45) and Justin Fields (26.95). Eleven other quarterbacks scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 14 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.60)
  • Jalen Allen (26.05)
  • Dak Prescott (24.22)
  • Lamar Jackson (22.70)
  • Brock Purdy (22.66)

Using our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,800)

The Eagles completed a challenging five-game stretch (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL), where they went 3-2. Over this span, Hurts averaged 210 passing yards with six touchdowns. He helped his floor with success in the run game (48/180/6). His best value in fantasy points came in Week 4 (31.35), Week 8 (31.55), and Week 12 (38.50). When at his best, Hurts attempted more than 35 passes (six times). 

The Seahawks rank 22nd defending quarterbacks (20.75 FPPG), with one team scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points (DAL – 322/3). Five teams (LAR – 334/0, DET – 323/3, CAR – 361/2, WAS – 312/3, and SF – 368/2) passed for more than 300 yards. Their defense has risk at times vs. running quarterbacks (NYG – 10/66, ARI – 7/43/1, and BAL – 14/68). In addition, running backs scored 16 of their 36 offensive touchdowns allowed. Seattle’s defense gave up 13 touchdowns and three field goals over 35 possessions by their opponents.

The Eagles have risk defending the pass, pointing to a competitive game on the scoreboard. Hurts has a winnable matchup, and Philadelphia needs to regain the bounce in their offense after being held to 32 points over the past two weeks.

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DFS

Week 14 Quarterback Report

December 7, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.91)
  • Jalen Hurts (27.23)
  • Dak Prescott (24.43)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.62)
  • Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills. 

Buffalo showed more risk

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Tua Tagovailoa
DFS

Week 13 Quarterback Report

November 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report Last week, the top-tier quarterbacks all posted impact games. Josh Allen (44.05) led the way in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues while outdueling Jalen Hurts (38.50). Dak Prescott (35.55) continued his midseason rise, […]

Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report

Last week, the top-tier quarterbacks all posted impact games. Josh Allen (44.05) led the way in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues while outdueling Jalen Hurts (38.50). Dak Prescott (35.55) continued his midseason rise, as did C.J. Stroud (33.90). Seven other quarterbacks scored between 21.00 and 29.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 12 weeks:

  • Josh Allen (27.91)
  • Jalen Hurts (27.26)
  • C.J. Stroud (24.05)
  • Dak Prescott (23.81)
  • Justin Herbert (23.60)

Using our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 13 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

The passing attack for the Eagles lost momentum over their last three games (207/2, 150/0, and 200/3). But Hurts held form by his success on the ground (36/130/5). Philadelphia is in the middle of a challenging five-game run (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL). Hurts had a floor of 25.00 fantasy points in seven of his last eight matchups while offering three impact games (31.35, 31.55, and 38.50). Last year, the 49ers held him to 160 combined yards with one rushing touchdown.

San Francisco has the fourth-best defense (15.55 FPPG) defending quarterbacks, with three offenses (NYG – 313/2, MIN – 377/2, and CIN – 326/3) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They play well vs. the run, and quarterbacks gain only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Three teams (LAR – 24/243, MIN – 17/241/2, and CIN – 21/235/3) gained more than 200 yards with their wideouts.

Hurts has a high floor, and the Eagles need him to play well to beat the 49ers. His matchup isn’t ideal for the daily games unless the Eagles throw the ball much better. I don’t see him scoring 33.00 fantasy points, which is needed to fill his salary bucket.

C.J. Stroud, Hou (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,000)

Stroud’s success over the last four weeks (1,530/12) pushed him to third in quarterback scoring (264.50). His best play continues…

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Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 12 Quarterback Report

November 24, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 12 NFL Quarterback Report Trevor Lawrence (34.80 fantasy points) finished as the top quarterback in Week 11, moving him to 16th in quarterback scoring (189.10 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Brock Purdy (30.05) was the only other quarterback […]

Week 12 NFL Quarterback Report

Trevor Lawrence (34.80 fantasy points) finished as the top quarterback in Week 11, moving him to 16th in quarterback scoring (189.10 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Brock Purdy (30.05) was the only other quarterback to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Twelve QBs posted between 21.00 and 28.50 fantasy points. Over the past three weeks, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott were the highest two quarterbacks. Here are the top five players after 11 weeks in scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (26.44)
  • Jalen Hurts (26.14)
  • Justin Herbert (24.21)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.07)
  • Dak Prescott (22.64)

Using our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 12 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)

Allen continues to hold the top spot in quarterback scoring (290.85 fantasy points). But his ticket has come in only once (Week 8 – 33.30 fantasy points) over the past six weeks in the DFS market. The Bills played seven of their first 11 games at home (one matchup was overseas). He had more interceptions (6) than passing touchdowns (5) on the road. All three of his games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home.

Philadelphia ranks 29th vs. quarterbacks (22.99 FPPG), with failure in three matchups (MIN – 364/4, WAS – 408/4, and DAL – 388/3). Despite their struggles, the Eagles allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt while delivering 31 sacks. Wide receivers (166/1,922/15 on 266 targets) gained 200 yards in five different games (MIN – 17/265/2, WAS – 22/230/1, MIA – 20/206/1, WAS – 24/288/3, and DAL – 18/271/2). 

The Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs combination has a chance to shine in this game, as both players must play well to win on the road against a top team in the NFL. On the downside, Philly allowed only two touchdowns on the ground, with none going to a quarterback. Allen needs at least 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off.

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,800)

The Cowboys and Chiefs’ defenses held Hurts to 422 combined yards over the last two weeks, but he still delivered five touchdowns, thanks to his value in the run game (22/65/3). Other than Week 8 (319/4), Hurts has 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions over nine matchups. His yards per rush (3.5) are a career-low while being on pace to score 15 times in the run game. Hurts has yet to score over 30.00 fantasy points at home this year.

Buffalo has the fourth-best defense against…

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dak prescott ceedee lamb
DFS

Week 11 Quarterback Report

November 16, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 11 NFL Quarterback Report Over the last three weeks (1,132 combined yards with 12 touchdowns), Dak Prescott has been the best quarterback in the NFL while posting 3rd (32.10), 2nd (32.10), and 1st (42.90) place finishes in four-point passing […]

Week 11 NFL Quarterback Report

Over the last three weeks (1,132 combined yards with 12 touchdowns), Dak Prescott has been the best quarterback in the NFL while posting 3rd (32.10), 2nd (32.10), and 1st (42.90) place finishes in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Thirteen quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points in Week 10. Justin Herbert (32.65) had the second-highest quarterback score last week, followed by Sam Howell (28.30), Joshua Dobbs (27.80), and Geno Smith (27.75). Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 10 games:

  • Jalen Hurts (26.66)
  • Josh Allen (26.46)
  • Justin Herbert (23.75)
  • C.J. Stroud (23.21)
  • Dak Prescott (23.15)

 

Using our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 11 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

The Bills desperately need a win to put their team back on a playoff track. Allen ranks second in quarterback scoring (264.60) while posting three winning days (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30 fantasy points) and two dismal showings (15.40 and 19.15 fantasy points). In Week 1, the Jets held him to 272 combined yards with one touchdown. Allen scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his last eight games despite trailing his previous path in attempts (48) and run yards (246). New York also held him to two short games (205/0 and 147/1) passing the ball in 2022. Allen did have success on the ground (9/86/2 and 10/47/1).

New York has the seventh-best defense against quarterbacks (16.43 FPPG) while facing BUF (272/1), DAL (269/2), KC (254/1), and PHI (327/2). They allow 5.8 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing nine touchdowns. Their defense has 25 sacks (18 over their last five matchups).

Allen has the highest quarterback salary on the board this week, with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes playing on Monday night. He has an against-the-grain feel, making him a lower percentage own in the DFS market…

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Joe Burow
DFS

Week 10 Quarterback Report

November 9, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report The winning tickets in Week 9 were cashed by the DFS teams using a C.J. Stroud (46.50 fantasy points) and a Houston Texans’ receiving stack. He gained 480 yards with five touchdowns and a two-point […]

Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report

The winning tickets in Week 9 were cashed by the DFS teams using a C.J. Stroud (46.50 fantasy points) and a Houston Texans’ receiving stack. He gained 480 yards with five touchdowns and a two-point conversion. Dak Prescott finished second in quarterback scoring (32.10), one notch higher than Week 8 despite the identical total in fantasy points. Joshua Dobbs (28.50) came off the bench to post the third-best output for the week. 10 quarterbacks scored at least 10 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after nine weeks:

  • Josh Allen (30.18)
  • Jalen Hurts (29.18)
  • C.J. Stroud (25.98)
  • Patrick Mahomes (22.88)
  • Justin Herbert (22.64)

Using our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 10 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,300)

The top end of the quarterback pool in Week 10 is weaker due to Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa being on a bye week. In addition, Josh Allen plays on Monday night. Jackson has the highest salary on the main slate on Sunday while ranking seventh in quarterback scoring. He comes off two dull games (13.55 and 14.35) in fantasy points, coming after an explosive showing (393/4) vs. the Lions at home in Week 7. In his first matchup vs. the Browns, Jackson had four scores while gaining 213 combined yards. He attempted only 19 passes due to Baltimore playing from the lead and Cleveland starting rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. 

The Browns have the second-best quarterback defense (15.09 FPPG), right behind Baltimore’s defense (13.73 FPPG). The Ravens (31.80 fantasy points) and Colts (34.15 fantasy points) had the most success due to scoring four rushing touchdowns by their quarterbacks. Cleveland allows 6.3 yards per pass attempt with 26 sacks. Indy was the only team to pass for more than 300 yards due to a broken play by Michael Pittman (75-yard TD) and blown coverage vs. Josh Downs (59-yard TD) on another play.

This matchup should have a lot of running, pointing to a lower-scoring game (game total – 38.5). The Ravens scored 13 touchdowns and kicked five field goals over their last 34 possessions. That was highlighted by two explosive wins at home (38-6 and 37-3). Over this span, they scored eight rushing touchdowns. Jackson helps his floor by rushing the ball, but he is only an against-the-grain option in this matchup.

Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,500)

Over his last two games vs. the Chiefs and Jets…

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Jalen Hurts
DFS

Week 9 Quarterback Report

November 2, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report Last week, five quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points, with Sam Howell (35.95) leading the way. Dak Prescott (32.10) and Joe Burrow (30.45) had correction games, lifting them to 14th and 20th in the […]

Week 9 Quarterback Report

Last week, five quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points, with Sam Howell (35.95) leading the way. Dak Prescott (32.10) and Joe Burrow (30.45) had correction games, lifting them to 14th and 20th in the quarterback rankings. Josh Allen (33.30) and Jalen Hurts (31.55) produced top-tier stats for the second consecutive week. Will Levis put his name on the fantasy map after an impact showing (249/4) in his first career NFL start. Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after eight weeks by scoring average in four-point passing touchdown leagues:

  • Josh Allen (27.14)
  • Jalen Hurts (26.50)
  • Justin Herbert (24.66)
  • Patrick Mahomes (23.41)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (23.34).

Eleven quarterbacks are averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points per game.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 9 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)

Over the last six games, Hurts averaged 331 combined yards with strength in his completion rate (67.7) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). His lacking area was passing touchdowns before gaining momentum in this area over his last two starts (2 and 4). He is on pace to gain 5,143 yards with 40 touchdowns. Last season, Hurts had a quiet game (182/2) at home vs. Dallas while sitting out his road matchup.

The Cowboys have the third-best quarterback defense (16.43 FPPG), with one team (SF – 252/4) having success. Their pass rush (18 sacks) hasn’t been imposing over the last five matchups (2, 2, 1, 1, and 2). But they’ve created 16 turnovers on the season, with five leading to touchdowns. Dallas started the year by facing four below-par offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE). However, they somehow lost to the Cardinals.

Hurts rides only as high as A.J. Brown can take him. He has strength in his secondary receiving options and a high floor scoring rushing touchdowns, but their success scoring touchdowns (21 over 85 possessions – 24.7%) is below their path in 2022 (59 over 186 possessions – 31.7%). This matchup isn’t ideal, but Hurts has the offensive tools to shine in this against-the-grain matchup.

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Lamar Jackson
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
  • Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
  • Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

  • Josh Allen (183.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (180.45)
  • Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
  • Lamar Jackson (170.80)
  • Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

 

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