2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs. Also, check out Jody Smith's NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis. Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn's deep dive into the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook. -- Offense --
The Bengals threw the ball 60.5% of the time last season, leading to the seventh overall rank in offensive yards per game. Cincinnati attempted 38.1 passes, an increase of 14.4% from 2021. The Bengals would like more success running the ball to help close out leads in the fourth quarter. The strength of this team is Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, meaning many balls will be in the air again in 2023.
-- Quarterback --
Joe Burrow
Coming into 2021, the Bengals appeared positioned to be a high-volume passing team based on Burrow’s 40.4 passing attempts over 10 games in his rookie season. Instead, Cincinnati finished 20th in passing attempts (555 – 32.6 per game) while taking 55 sacks (third-most in the NFL). Burrow overcame his below-par passing opportunity by completing 70.4% of his passes and gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.
Despite playing well over his first eight games (2,258 combined yards with 20 touchdowns), he failed to lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs after a dull five-game stretch (282/0, bye, 148/1, 190/1, and 300/1). However, for anyone surviving with Burrow in the fantasy postseason, his play was exceptional in Week 16 (525/4) and Week 17 (446/4). He finished the year with 4,729 combined yards and 36 touchdowns or 376.45 fantasy points (8th) in four-point passing touchdown leagues while missing one game.
Burrow ended last season with comparable combined yards (4,732 – 4,729 in 2021) despite having an increase in pass (86) and rush (35) attempts. He became more of a factor in the run game (75/257/5) while missing explosive plays by Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow gains 7.4 yards per pass attempt, with five fewer completions of 40 yards or more. Over his final four starts, he delivered only five passing touchdowns while averaging 234 passing yards. When at his best, Burrow gained more than 300 yards in five matchups (338/2, 300/3, 481/3, 355/4, and 375/3).
Fantasy Outlook: With 76 touchdowns over the past two seasons and a better opportunity on the ground, Burrow looks poised to fight for the top quarterback-scoring slot in the land. He can’t match Josh Allen's or Jalen Hurts's running ability, but Cincinnati has two elite wideouts who have yet to play an entire season of games together. Burrow may average more than 300 passing yards with a difference-maker floor in scoring if their offensive line creates a longer passing window. In the early draft season, he ranks fourth at quarterback. I consider him a player to fight for in 2023.
Other Options: Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning
-- Running Backs --
The Bengals’ running backs combined for 2,068 yards with 18 touchdowns and 103 catches in 2022, leading to 26.12 FPPG in PPR formats. Despite their fantasy success, their backs continue to gain short yards per rush (4.0), something that has been an issue for three seasons. Joe Burrow’s willingness to use his backs in the passing game should be repeated going forward.
Joe Mixon
After a career season in touches (334), rushing yards (1,205), and touchdowns (16), Mixon missed a pair of games due to a concussion. He still finished 11th in running back scoring (239.50) in PPR formats, but 23.0% of his output came in one monster showing (211 combined yards with five touchdowns and four catches). His only other two games with more than 20.00 fantasy points came in Week 1 (21.50) and the divisional playoffs (20.30). Over the past four seasons, over 899 carries, Mixon averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, with only 19 of his runs gaining 20 yards or more. He set a career-high in catches (60) and receiving yards (441) in 2022 despite losing snaps (257) to Samaje Perine (225) over his final seven matchups. Fantasy Outlook: Mixon gained more than 1,250 combined yards in four of the past five seasons. He has 29 scores over 36 starts, with Joe Burrow on the Bengals’ roster. Despite being in the NFL for six years, Mixon will start the season at age 27. The Bengals have a rising offense with a gear that hasn’t been hit yet. He ranks 21st in the early draft season in the high-stakes market, well below his ranking over the past two seasons (11th and 4th). Any investment in Mixon is a bet on the Bengals’ offense.Chase Brown
Brown saw action over five seasons in college, leading to 4,079 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and 58 catches. His game progressed in his final two years at Illinois, highlighted by his 2022 season (328/1,643/10 with 27 catches for 240 yards and three touchdowns). Brown started the season with more than 100 rushing in nine matchups while receiving a minimum of 19 carries in all his starts. Over his final seven games, he earned his keep by volume of chances instead of big plays (4.7, 4.4, 4.7, 4.1, 4.3, 4.8, and 3.2 yards per carry). Fantasy Outlook: A better offensive system and spacing should lead to Brown delivering long runs with the Bengals. He has speed in his back pocket, with various ways to make defenders miss. His potential intrigues me, so following the Cincinnati coach-speak, this summer should hint at his 2023 fantasy opportunity. I expect him to win...WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BENGALS IN 2023?
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