2023 Baltimore Ravens Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
2023 Baltimore Ravens Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs. Also, check out Jody Smith's NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis. Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn's deep dive into the 2023 Baltimore Ravens Outlook. -- Offense --
The foundation of the Ravens’ game plan and attack remains the same. They want to run the ball as much as possible while playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore ran the ball 51.9% of the time in 2022 while averaging 30.9 carries per game. They finished 22nd in combined yards. In 2022, their passing game showed more promise (4,267 yards). This may be a hint of more passes this season, helped by the additions at wide receiver in the offseason.
-- Quarterback --
Lamar Jackson
After gaining over 1,000 yards rushing in 2019 (1,206) and 2020 (1,005) with an edge in rushing touchdowns (14), Jackson missed five games in back-to-back years. He was on pace for 1,087 and 1,082 rushing yards if he played 17 games in 2021 and 2022. In his career, Jackson has averaged 63 rushing yards over 70 contests.
His peak total in pass attempts (401 – 26.7 per game) came in 2019 over 15 starts. In 2021, he was on pace to throw 541 passes (31.8 per game). Jackson struggled to deliver rushing touchdowns in 2021 (2) and 2022 (3). That lowered his ceiling in fantasy points. He only needs 1,673 more rushing yards to pass Michael Vick (6,109 – 143 games) for the most in NFL history.
Jackson busted out of the gate over the first three weeks last season with 992 combined yards (749/10 passing) with a dozen scores. Over his next eight complete games, he averaged only 185 passing yards on 29.3 attempts. That's a modest 6.3 yards per attempt figure. Jackson also scored only once on the ground over this span.
Fantasy Outlook: Jackson’s success and fantasy value start with impact yards on the ground. He must regain his lost momentum in rushing touchdowns to push higher in the quarterback rankings. The Ravens look to have the most receiving depth since Jackson arrived on the scene, pointing to a career-high in his passing output. He ranks sixth at quarterback in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. His ceiling looks to be 4,500 combined yards with 35 scores. And I view Jackson as reasonably priced. My only advice is to add a second quarterback of value to protect against a season-ending knee injury.
Other Options: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Brown, Nolan Henderson
-- Running Backs --
The Ravens’ running backs remain active in touchdowns over the past three seasons (16, 16, and 15). They continue to have a low ranking in the receiving categories, highlighted by their receiving yards (267 – 31st) and yards per catch (5.5 – 31st). Last year, their backs averaged 20.48 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Lamar Jackson steals many chances in the run game, and his pass attempts tend to be low in most matchups. This creates a lower ceiling for the Ravens’ running backs.
J.K. Dobbins
Baltimore stole Dobbins in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dobbins brings a fighter’s mentality to the ground game with strength in his runs. He aims to drive the ball forward with quickness and vision, with against-the-grain cuts. He’ll take a hit and lose his balance, but Dobbins finds a way to stay upright on many plays while offering a stiff arm. While playing in a great system at Ohio State, Dobbins looked elite in his freshman year (1,538 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 22 catches on 216 touches), seeing about 55% of the running back opportunity. His game regressed in 2018 (1,316 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 26 catches) due to Mike Weber (172/954/5) outplaying Dobbins on many days. In 2019, Dobbins regained his bounce in his step, which led to a high volume opportunity (301/2,003/21 plus 23 catches for 247 yards and two touchdowns). Over the first six games in 2020, Dobbins only averaged six touches per game. This resulted in 228 combined yards and two touchdowns and 11 catches. His opportunity became fantasy relevant over the Ravens’ final 11 matchups (827 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 11 catches), resulting in 12.88 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His highlight game came in Week 17 (13/160/2). In 2021, Dobbins suffered a torn ACL in his left knee before the start of the year, leading to a lost season. He didn’t look healthy last year, resulting in eight more missed starts (a clean-up knee surgery midseason) over the first 12 games (35/123/1 with six catches for 39 yards and one score). Dobbins ran the ball much better over his final five contests (70/459/1 – 6.6 yards per rush) while picking up five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy Outlook: With an entire offseason to get his knee in shape and work on his strength, Dobbins should be ready to rock and roll in Week 1. He won’t make much impact in the passing game, and Baltimore will rotate in a second runner on early downs. Dobbins also takes a hit from Lamar Jackson sniping goal-line carries and scores. I see about 250 touches for 1,300 yards, double-digit scoring, and 25 catches. At best, a mid-tier RB2 in PPR formats with a limited ceiling and outcome of impact games.Gus Edwards
In his four seasons with the Ravens, Edwards gained at least 5.0 yards per rush every year (5.2, 5.3, 5.0, and 5.0). He has limited value in the passing game (18/194 – no catches in 2022), but his play in this area flashed more explosiveness in 2020 (9/129 – three catches over 20 yards) while finishing with 852 combined yards with six scores and nine catches on 144 carries). Baltimore gave him more than 10 touches in six of his 18 games (including playoffs). Edwards also blew out his left knee before Week 1 in 2021, leading to no touches. His slow recovery led to him missing the first six games last season. After two helpful games (16/66/2 and 11/65), Edwards was back on the sidelines for the following three weeks with a hamstring issue. Over his final seven appearances, he gained 354 combined yards with one touchdown and one catch. Fantasy Outlook: Edwards posted a floor of 700 rushing yards in his first three years with the Ravens. He plays with power while offering a closing mentality when Baltimore plays from the lead. Edwards should be back to full strength at the start of the year while resuming his RB2 role for Baltimore. I expect himWHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAVENS IN 2023?
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