Chicago Bears Team Outlook
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Bears Offense Outlook
The growth of the Bears’ defense allows Chicago to become more balanced on offense. They ran the ball 47.8 percent of the time in 2018, which was helped by having a running QB. The foundation of this offense does also have some explosives in the passing game when Mitchell Trubisky makes a further step forward.
In 2018, Trubisky ranked 15th in QB scoring in four-point TD leagues despite missing two games with a right shoulder injury. He went 11-3 with growth in his completion rate (66.6). Mitchell gained 3,644 combined yards with 27 TDs and 12 Ints. He continues to show explosiveness as a runner (68/421/3) with much more upside if he had more attempts. His first shining moment last year came in Week 4 when Mitchell gained 407 combined yards with six TDs. He also added three other impact games (363/3, 414/3, and 373/4).
Even with his success, Trubisky did deliver too many pothole games over his last seven starts (four games with fewer than 175 yards passing with three combined TDs). His movements in the pocket and running ability give me an Aaron Rodgers feel while needing to have growth his playmaking ability in the red zone to become a viable week-to-week starter in the Fantasy games. Last year Mitchell helped Fantasy owners win multiple million dollar checks in the daily tournaments. He has an upside passing catching back with three steady receiving options at WR and TE. His next step points to 4,500 combined yards with 32+ TDs and a top 12 Fantasy ranking at QB.
Other Options: Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray
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When looking for the next impact back in the NFL, a Fantasy owner needs to identify players with impact traits while offering game breaker qualities. I don’t get that feel from Montgomery. He has a grinder type feel who runs well to daylight. His top end speed is below par.
David will break some tackles, but he needs more upper body strength. Over his last two seasons at Iowa St., Montgomery rushed for 2,362 yards with 24 TDs on 515 carries. He gained only 4.6 yards per rush, which is unimpressive at the college level. He picked 71 catches for 582 yards in his college career. Many of his TDs came on short easy runs while lacking open field moves and vision to create more significant plays.
With Jordan Howard shipped to Philly, David becomes the bell cow back on early downs for the Bears. Last year Chicago’s RBs gained 2,474 combined yards with 18 TDs and 101 catches. Tarik Cohen is the passing catching back with change of pace value, which still leaves Montgomery 300+ touches for another RB in this offense. I expect 250+ touches for 1,100 combined yards with double-digit TDs and a chance at 20 catches. He projects as a mid-level RB2.
Cohen ended up being an excellent value RB in PPR leagues in 2018. He finished as the 11th highest scoring RB. After a slow start to the year over the first three games (7.10, 3.50, and 9.80 Fantasy points), Tarik turned into an impact player in his next four games (30.40, 24.10, 22.30, and 18.00 Fantasy points) highlighted by his success in Week 4 (174 combined yards with one TD and seven catches).
Over the last nine games, Cohen had three short games (2.30, 7.00, and 2.90 Fantasy points) with the previous contest coming in the most crucial week in the season-long events in the high-stakes market. In between, Tarik had five steady games and one other impact game (186 combined yards with 12 catches). He finished the year with 1,169 combined yards with eight TDs and 71 catches. His big play and pass catching value points to more growth in his third year in the NFL. Pencil him down for 1,200+ yards with 80+ catches and mid-level in TDs. I’m buying him as the first Bears’ RB drafted in the Fantasy market.
Other Options: Kerrith Whyte, Ryan Nall
Last year Fantasy owners drafted Robinson as a WR2, which ended up being a mistake. In his 13 games played, Allen finished 40th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. He caught 55 of his 94 targets for 754 yards and four TDs. His catch rate (58.5) was a step up from his best two seasons with the Jaguars (80/1400/14 – 53.0 and 73/883/6 – 48.3). Robinson posted one impact game (6/133/2) and four steady contests (10/83, 5/64/1, 5/79, and 6/85). In the playoffs, he performed how Fantasy owners expected on draft day (ten catches for 143 yards and one TD).
Allen missed two games midseason with a hip injury plus Week 17 with a rib issue. The Bears’ WRs finished with 176 catches for 2,106 and 14 TDs on 280 targets. I’ll price him at 70 catches for 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs. Chicago should be more productive passing the ball in 2019, which points to Robinson becoming a value pick as WR3.
The Bears only gave Miller four starts in his 15 games in his rookie season. His highlight game came in Week 10 (5/122/1). Anthony finished with 33 catches for 423 yards and seven TDs on 54 targets while battling a left shoulder injury that required surgery after the season.
Over the last two seasons at Memphis, Miller caught 191 passes for 2,896 yards and 32 TDs while chipping in for another 94 yards and one TD rushing the ball. Anthony offers a unique combination of strength, route running, and open field ability. I love his moments with the ball and his adjustments to the ball in the deep passing game. Better CBs will test Miller in the NFL, but he looks to have the skill set to develop into a top WR in the game.
In 2019, Miller should start all year after spending the first half of the offseason rehabbing his shoulder issue. I view him a WR1A in this offense while expecting him to be drafted as WR4 in the high-stakes market. His upside points to 70+ catches for 1,100+ yards and a run at double-digit TDs. The main huddle is getting a clean bill of health over the summer.
In his first season with the Bears, Gabriel had the best year (67/688/2) in his NFL career. He started 11 of 16 games played while posting an elite catch rate (72.0). Taylor did his most damage in Week 4 (7/104/2) and Week 6 (5/110), but he didn’t score another TD all year while also failing to gain over 65 yards and any other game. A healthy Anthony Miller will push Gabriel to the WR3 role if he can hold off incoming rookie Riley Ridley for the job. I’ll lower his projections to 40 catches for 500 yards and low value in TDs.
In his six years in the NFL, Patterson has never been able to earn a WR1 or WR2 job despite his playmaking ability. In 2018 with New England, the Patriots used him on catches close to the line of scrimmage (21/247/3) and as a change of direction player in the run game (42/228/1). He’s returned six kickoffs in his career. Cordarrelle has talent, but he can’t have playable Fantasy value without a better opportunity.
Other Options: Javon Wims, Marvin Hall, Emanuel Hall, Taquan Mizzell, Tanner Gentry
In his first season with the Bears, Burton ranked 8th in PPR leagues at TE while catching 54 of his 76 targets for 569 yards and six TDs. His catch rate (71.1) was excellent while lacking opportunity (4.75 targets per game). Trey had one impact game (9/126/1) while gaining fewer than 40 yards in 14 games, which includes his last ten starts. Burton scored only one TD over his last eight games.
Chicago completed 64 of 90 targets for 668 yards and seven TDs to the TE position. It’s tough buying a TE with fewer than five chances per game as a trusted Fantasy asset. His ranking at TE 2018 will price him higher than I willing to pay this season. Progress would be 65+ catches for 650+ yards and six to eight TDs. Only a steady option while being a tough ride from week-to-week.
In his second season at Ashland University, Adam caught 70 passes for 803 yards and 10 TDs. His resume is short while playing against a lower level of talent. Shaheen will win many jump balls while showing plus hands. He doesn’t need a big window for success, but his route running still needs some work. His size (6’6” and 278 lbs.) and blocking ability gives him three-down ability. Adam is an upside TE who caught 17 passes for 175 yards and four TDs on 20 targets in his 19 games played over the last two seasons. Adam missed the first half of the year with a foot injury that led to him being placed on the injured list.
Other Options: Ben Braunecker, Dax Raymond, Ian Bunting, Bradley Sowell, Ellis Richardson
On draft day, the Bears traded for Pineiro to hopefully seize the kicking job in Chicago. He missed all of 2018 with a groin injury. In his two years at Florida in college, Eddy made 88.4 percent of his 43 field goal chances while missing only two extra point tries in 58 attempts. In 2018, the Bears scored 50 TDs while creating 30 field goal chances. If Pineiro lands the starting job and makes a high percentage of his kicks, Eddy has an opportunity to be a top ten kicker in 2019.
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