2023 Chicago Bears Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Detroit Lions Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Justin Fields
Fields played for one of the best football programs in the NCAA in 2019 and 2020. And he did them proud by going 20-2 despite failing to win a national championship. He passed for 5,373 yards with 63 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Fields finished his college career with 260 rushes for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Despite some impressive stats, Fields came with knocks from some NFL scouts. He needs to improve his pre-snap reads when facing the blitz, plus show more quickness in his release under duress. Also, his strengths come from his toughness and playmaking ability while having the base to break the pocket after getting hit. Fields takes what the defense gives him as a runner, which gains value at the goal line. His arm has the strength to make all the NFL throws. Fields also plays very well when asked to throw on the run.
Fields went 2-8 in his rookie season with more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). His completion rate (58.9) and yards per pass attempt (6.9) showed weakness. However, he ran the ball exceptionally well (72/420/2). Over his first six starts, Fields passed for more than 210 yards in one matchup (291/1) while delivering only five combined scores. He missed time late in the year with an ankle issue and Covid-19.
For the second consecutive season, Fields lost momentum late in the year due to an injury. He took a nasty hit in Week 11, leading to a missed game, while also sitting out Week 18 with a hip issue. Despite having high hopes as a QB2 in the fantasy market in 2022, Fields played his way off rosters after a dismal first four games (34-for-67 with 471 yards passing, two touchdowns, and four interceptions plus 34 runs for 147 yards and a score).
The Bears allowed him to run more from Week 6 to Week 11 (80/640/6), leading to an impressive run (21.30, 26.15, 27.55, 43.95, 42.05, and 25.15 fantasy points). His electric game (301 combined yards with four touchdowns) vs. the Dolphins helped me win $250,000 at DraftKings. Fields never threw more than 28 pass attempts in any matchup. His rushing stats (160/1,143/8) accounted for 49.0% of his fantasy points. He gained more than 20 yards on 10 rushes, with four plays reaching the 40-yard mark.
Fantasy Outlook: Chicago gave Fields an upgrade at WR1 (DJ Moore) in the offseason. Also, his secondary receiving options (Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet) should be better in 2023. Fields finished 11th in quarterback scoring (331.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. I can’t expect him to have as many long runs this year, but he still gained 5.8 yards per carry in 2021 with three runs of 20 yards or more. With 17 games played, he should run the ball 170 times with 1,000 yards and six to eight scores. To reach 3,000 yards passing, Fields must average 176 yards and 25 passes per game. With 20 passing touchdowns, my quick math adds up to 360.00+ fantasy points. He ranks 7th at quarterback in mid-June in the high-stakes market. I sense a player close to 10th, but I also understand Fields could outperform my early outlook.
Other Options: PJ Walker, Nathan Peterman, Tyson Bagent
— Running Backs —
The threat of Justin Fields running helped the Bears’ running backs by keeping linebackers honest in the attacks vs. the run. They gained 4.8 yards per rush, compared to 4.0 in 2021. Despite only seven more rushing attempts, their backs rushed for 345 more yards with a similar output in rushing touchdowns (10). Chicago barely threw to their running backs (46/414/2 on 62 targets), but they did gain an impressive 9.0 yards per catch.
D’Onta Foreman
After an injury to Derrick Henry in 2021, Foreman worked his way into serviceable snaps late in the year. He finished 689 combined yards with three scores and nine catches. Tennessee gave him 20 touches or more in four of their final six matchups, leading to 542 yards with three touchdowns and six catches (13.03 FPPG in PPR formats).
Foreman appeared to have a minimal role in 2022 after signing with the Panthers as depth behind Christian McCaffery. Over the first six weeks, he only had 12 rushes for 37 yards with no chances in the passing game. When Carolina decided to trade their star running back, Foreman responded with more than 100 yards rushing in four of his first six starts (15/118, 26/118/3, 31/130/1, and 24/113). Unfortunately, he puts up six short fantasy games (4.30, 2.40, 8.50, 0.90, 3.50, and 6.80) over his final nine matchups. His only other playable outcome came in Week 16 (21/165/1).
Fantasy Outlook: Foreman has the inside track on the Bears to be their big back with almost no value on passing downs. He’ll have to hold off incoming rookie Roschon Johnson in the preseason before determining his potential in the fantasy market. Possible 200/850/5 player with more upside if given 14 or more starts.
Khalil Herbert
Herbert has early-down potential and needs rhythm timing to excel through the line of scrimmage. When on the move, he flows to the hole with vision and acceleration to reach the second level of the defense. Herbert gets in trouble when hitting roadblocks due to his gearing and taking a couple of steps to reach peak speed. His pass protection needs to improve, with minimal early value in the passing game.
Over five seasons at Virginia Tech, Herbert finished with 3,214 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 34 catches. His highlight year was 2020 (1,361 combined yards with nine scores and 10 catches).
With David Montgomery injured over four games in 2021, Herbert gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).
The Bears gave him the starts in Week 3 vs. the Texans last season with Montgomery out. Herbert responded with an impact game (20/157/2 with two catches for 12 yards). His touches fluctuated over his final nine matchups (77/414/1 with four catches for 20 yards) while missing four weeks with a hip injury. Chicago had him on the field for 29.1% of their plays. Herbert scored 6.00 fantasy points or fewer over his last five games.
Fantasy Outlook: This season, the Bears should try to get him on the field for…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BEARS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
