2023  Indianapolis Colts Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Indianapolis Colts Outlook.

— Offense —

Game flow led to Indianapolis throwing 80 more pass attempts than the previous season (524). In 2021, the Colts ran a balanced offense, thanks to the elite season by Jonathan Taylor. Their new coaching staff wants to run that ball based on their game plan in Philly. Ultimately, the number of starts by Anthony Richardson sets the tone for their game plan.

— Quarterback —

Anthony Richardson

After limited playing time in 2021 (930 combined yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions), Richardson made 12 starts for the Florida Gators last year. He ran the ball exceptionally well (103/654/9) while finishing with weakness in his completion rate (53.8) and low pass attempts per game (27.3). His passing stats (2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions) didn’t showcase a star passer. 

Richardson has an electric flow when running the ball that puts him closer to Lamar Jackson than Jalen Hurts. When in the open field, he has the feel to set up defenders and the acceleration to pick up big chunks of yards. Richardson throws with touch and accuracy downfield when his breaking receiver has a wide window of daylight. His challenge comes when throwing timing routes over the short areas of the field.

Fantasy Outlook: The Colts’ quarterbacks only ran the ball 46 times for 165 yards and one touchdown last season. Richardson should beat those totals in about three games. In the early draft season, he is the 17th-ranked quarterback despite no clear information about the number of games he will start. However, the bet and his floor come from his running ability. But Richardson can’t be a difference-maker without throwing the ball better. The new Colts’ head coach invested in Richardson, meaning he’ll quickly move into the starting lineup. I expect 12 to 13 starts, with his best play coming late in the season.

Gardner Minshew

Over his first two seasons, Minshew went 7-13 as the starting quarterback for Jacksonville. His touchdown to interception ratio (37:11) graded well while averaging 240 passing yards per game. A thumb issue led to him losing his starting job over the second half of 2020. 

Minshew appeared in nine games over the past two seasons for the Eagles. He completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,102 with seven touchdowns and four interceptions while chipping in with 16 rushes for 24 yards and one score. In his two starts in 2022, Minshew threw for 629 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Fantasy Outlook: His experience in Philadelphia suggests that Indy may use Minshew as their starting quarterback in September. I don’t expect him to be drafted in 2023, but he may surprise in short spurts.

Other Options: Sam Ehlinger

— Running Backs —

The Colts’ running backs lost 0.89 yards per rush and 2.18 yards per catch from their 2021 stats. They scored 15 fewer touchdowns while gaining 2,301 combined yards with 99 catches. Over the past three seasons, their backs averaged 519 touches, with elite scoring in fantasy points (32.02) in PPR leagues in 2020 and 2021. A certain rookie running quarterback could steal rushing attempts and touchdowns.

Jonathan Taylor

The Colts gave Taylor about 50% of their running back snaps over the first five weeks in 2021, leading to less value than expected running the ball (73/327/2). However, he did shine twice (6/60 and 3/116/1) over this span catching the ball. Indy gave him more than 80% of their snaps over their final eight games. Taylor had a floor of 95 combined yards over his last 12 games while turning into a beast running the ball (259/1,484/16). His role in the passing game dwindled over his final five contests (4/24). He finished the year first in running back scoring (375.10) in PPR leagues with 2,171 combined yards, 20 touchdowns, and 40 catches.

Last season, Taylor kicked in the door in Week 1 (175 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 35 touches). He picked up a toe issue in late September, followed by an ankle injury that later required surgery. Taylor missed six games while posting an empty showing (one catch for 13 yards) in Week 15. His only other game of value came in Week 10 (22/147/1 with two catches for 16 yards). In his 10 full starts, Indy gave him 21.9 touches per game. 

Fantasy outlook: Taylor is big and fast with an electric ceiling in scoring, but he needs better quarterback plays to extend drives and create more scoring chances. After a down season, Taylor is the fourth running back drafted with an ADP of 12 in PPR formats in the high-stakes market. Indianapolis should give him all the carries he can handle. Expect a floor of 1,500 combined yards with a dozen scores and a run at 50 catches. I expect his stock to rise as the draft season moves closer to September.

Evan Hull

Over his final two seasons at Northwestern, Hull delivered two productive years (196/1,009/7 with 33 catches for 264 yards and two touchdowns and 221/913/5 with 55 catches for 546 yards and two scores). He gained over 200 yards twice (24/220/4 and 22/216/2) in college, with eight showing with more than 100 rushing yards. 
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the structure of the backup Colts’ running backs…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE COLTS IN 2023?

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