Week 14 NFL Player Props For the fifth consecutive week, we had a .500 record (5-5). We lost .75 Units and are now at +3.25 Units as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Despite still being in […]
Week 14 NFL Player Props
For the fifth consecutive week, we had a .500 record (5-5). We lost .75 Units and are now at +3.25 Units as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign with Week 14 NFL Player Props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 14 NFL Player Props!
Geno Smith UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
I’m taking the under on Geno Smith’s passing touchdowns this week. Why? Because the numbers don’t lie, and they’re stacking up against the Seahawks quarterback.
First, let’s talk about Geno. Sure, he’s racking up the passing yards—he’s among the NFL’s best in that department. But when it comes to turning those yards into touchdowns, it’s been a struggle. In 12 games this season, Geno has thrown just 13 passing touchdowns, with only five of those coming on the road. He’s managed multiple touchdown games just twice this year, and last season wasn’t much different—20 touchdowns in 15 games. So, this isn’t a fluke; it’s a pattern.
Now, let’s flip the script and talk about Arizona’s defense, because wow, they’ve been bringing the heat. Over the past six games, the Cardinals have allowed only four total passing touchdowns. Even more impressive? At home, they’ve pitched a defensive shutout in three straight games—no passing touchdowns, no rushing touchdowns, nothing. In fact, across six home games this year, they’ve given up just three passing touchdowns total.
Put it all together, and the data points to one conclusion: this under is a smart play. Sure, betting unders can be nerve-wracking, but with Geno’s trends and Arizona’s defensive dominance, I feel good about this one.
Sam Darnold…
                        To get more PLAYER PROP BETS and finish reading this content…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
2024 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview The Vikings took a step back in Kevin O’Connell’s second season, dropping from 13-4 to 7-10. In his third season at the helm, OConnell must contend with breaking in a brand new franchise signal caller, […]
To continue reading this article, you must have an active subscription to one of the Products listed below.
Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Amari Cooper (11/265/2) delivered a difference-maker in the fantasy postseason for the first time in his NFL career, ranking first in wide receiver scoring (51.50) in Week 16. The change to Mason Rudolph at […]
Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
Amari Cooper (11/265/2) delivered a difference-maker in the fantasy postseason for the first time in his NFL career, ranking first in wide receiver scoring (51.50) in Week 16. The change to Mason Rudolph at quarterback gave George Pickens (4/195/2) the best outcome in his short NFL career. Puka Nacua (9/1801) was the third-ranked wideout for the week. Twelve wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 29.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five players by scoring average after 16 weeks:
Tyreek Hill (22.87)
CeeDee Lamb (21.90)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.83)
A.J. Brown (18.76)
Keenan Allen (18.69)
Also, before we get into the Week 17 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out theQB Report and RB Report.
Top-Tier Options
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,200)
Over the past two weeks, with Nick Mullens starting at quarterback, Jefferson averaged 22.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring with one edge game (6/141/1). The Vikings looked his way 20 times while attempting 70 passes. He posted four stud games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2) to start the season (28.33 FPPG). In 2022, Jefferson posted a dominating game (9/184/2) at home vs. the Packers but an empty showing (1/15) on the road.
Green Bay drifted to 15th in wide receiver defense (218/2,522/13 on 322 targets). The only offense to solve their pass coverage vs. wideouts was the Chargers (32/415/2). Their defense did show regression in points allowed over the past two matchups (27 and 30 points), leading to 34 catches for 398 yards and three touchdowns on 49 targets (CIN and DET). CB Jaire Alexander has been suspended for this game, putting the Vikings’ wideouts in a better position for success.
Jefferson does get a nick in his profile in Week 17, with Jaren Hall starting for the Vikings. He’s been on the field for 22 plays in his rookie season, leading to eight completions on 10 passing attempts for 101 yards. Over his last two seasons at BYU, Hall gained 6,409 yards with 57 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over 22 games. He will move the chains with his legs (148/655/6).Â
Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)
After missing Week 16, the Dolphins had Hill on the field for 85% of the snaps against Dallas. He caught…
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report All five of the top receivers in Week 15 ranked outside of the top 20 coming into the week. Jordan Addison (29.10) posted the high score in fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by […]
Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
All five of the top receivers in Week 15 ranked outside of the top 20 coming into the week. Jordan Addison (29.10) posted the high score in fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by Jaylen Waddle (28.20) and Terry McLaurin (26.10). No wideout scored more than 30.00 fantasy points for the second week all year. Twelve other wide receivers scored between 20.00 and 26.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five players by scoring average after 15 weeks:
Tyreek Hill (23.15)
CeeDee Lamb (21.66)
Keenan Allen (20.03)
A.J. Brown (19.10)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.13)
Also, before we get into the Week 16 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out theQB Report and RB Report.
Elite Option
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – (9,200/FD – $9,400)
Lamb has a touchdown in six consecutive games (seven total) while offering elite stats over his last eight starts (69/897/9 – 27.96 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). On the downside, he has been a weaker option in 2023 on the road (43/597/2 on 58 targets over seven games – 13.02 FPPG) than at home (28.51 FPPG). His best two games away from Dallas came in Week 6 (7/117) and Week 9 (11/191).Â
Miami played better defensively over their last five games (13, 13, 15, 28, and 0 points allowed), except for a late fourth quarterback collapse vs. the Titans (two touchdowns over the final three minutes). The Dolphins are about league average vs. wideouts (185/282/13 on 282 targets), with struggles in three games (DEN – 18/257/1, BUF – 13/209/4, LV – 18/209/1). CB Xavien Howard (40/425/2 on 63 targets per PRR) may miss this week’s game with a hip issue. Lamb will most likely see CB Kader Kohou (62/630/6 on 73 targets) in coverage for a good portion of his routes due to him working out of the slot.
The hot hand theory favors Lamb again in this game, but Dak Prescott hasn’t been the same player on the road. Better weather in Miami is a plus, and the Cowboys will need to throw the ball better this week if they expect to compete for a win. Unfortunately, Lamb will be a challenging fit for a DFS lineup in Week 16.
Second Tier Options
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
Jefferson started with four productive games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2). He averaged 11.75 targets, leading to…
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report D.K. Metcalf (6/134/3) had a correction game in Week 13, putting him on the wide receiver podium for the first time all year. Deebo Samuel (35.80) and Nico Collins (34.10) finished second and third […]
Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report
D.K. Metcalf (6/134/3) had a correction game in Week 13, putting him on the wide receiver podium for the first time all year. Deebo Samuel (35.80) and Nico Collins (34.10) finished second and third for the week. Tyreek Hill (32.70), CeeDee Lamb (32.60), and Ja’Marr Chase (31.90) all posted impact games. Five other wideouts scored between 23.50 and 29.50 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after 13 weeks:
Tyreek Hill (26.17)
Keenan Allen (22.30)
CeeDee Lamb (22.13)
A.J. Brown (19.95)
Ja’Marr Chase (19.54)
Also, before we get into the Week 14 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out theQB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $8,500/FD – $9,000)
After an eight-week vacation with a hamstring issue, Jefferson returns to the starting lineup in Week 14. His season started with four productive games (9/150, 11/159, 7/149/1, and 6/85/2). He averaged 11.75 targets, leading to 28.33 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring. Over this stretch, the Vikings attempted 157 passes.Â
Las Vegas ranks 14th in wide receiver defense (141/1,724/10 on 215 targets), with one disaster game (MIA – 19/263/1). Their pass defense showed regression over the last three games (NYJ – 263/0, MIA – 325/2, and KC – 298/2). Three wideouts (Amon-Ra St. Brown – 6/108, Tyreek Hill – 10/146/1, and Rashee Rice – 8/107/1) gained more than 100 yards receiving. Their best cornerback (Nate Hobbs) works primarily out of the slot, suggesting a favorable matchup for Jefferson.
The key to the Vikings’ top wideout is his chemistry with Joshua Dobbs and Minnesota upping their passing attempts. Jefferson has beast upside, and a running quarterback could help his ability to break free for a long scoring play.
WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…
USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!
2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championshipdynasty, redraft, or high-stakessquad, FullTime Fantasy memberswill have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Minnesota Vikings Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Kirk Cousins
Since arriving in Minnesota, Cousins posted a 46-33-1 record, with strength in his completion rate (67.8). He averaged 32 touchdowns over five seasons with the Vikings while sitting out two games.
In 2020 and 2021, Cousins ranked 11th and 10th in fantasy scoring (366.95 and 352.35) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. His floor was 4,200 passing yards in three seasons from 2018 to 2021 while offering minimal value in the run game (44/123/1, 31/63/1, 32/156/1, and 29/115/1) over this span. In 2021, he passed for more than 300 yards in six matchups, but Cousins finished with only one impact game (32.25 fantasy points). On his down days, he scored fewer than 20.00 fantasy points in six outings, four of which gained less than 225 yards passing.
Last season, Cousins set career-highs in completions (424) and passing attempts (643), with his second-best showing in passing yards (4,547). A shorter passing window (46 sacks) led to weakness in his yards per pass attempt (7.1). After a sluggish first eight games (1,999 passing yards and 13 touchdowns), he produced three impact games (298/3, 425/2, 460/4, and 301/3) over the next seven weeks. Cousins finished 6th in quarterback scoring (354.95), falling in line with his previous two seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: Cousins will have a top-five opportunity in the league to throw again in 2023 while playing with an electric WR1 (Justin Jefferson). T.J. Hockenson (60/519/3 over 10 games) proved to be an excellent addition at the trade deadline last year. The combination of K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison gives Minnesota the passing depth to test defenses all over the field. Cousins doesn’t add much on the ground (31/97/2), leading to him ranking 12th at quarterback in June. Next step: 5,000 combined yards with a career-high in touchdowns.
— Running Backs —
The Vikings running back production in rushing yards (1,556) and receiving yards (493) declined in back-to-back seasons. In addition, their yards per rush (4.2) is trending in the wrong direction. They set three-year lows in rushing attempts (369), catches (66), and targets (88). Their backs gained 2,049 yards with 19 touchdowns and 66 catches (22.64 FPPG in PPR formats). The only positive out of last year was Minnesota’s willingness to run the ball in close for touchdowns.
Alexander Mattison
Minnesota gave Mattison the best opportunity of his three-year career in 2021, leading to 719 combined yards with four touchdowns and 32 catches. In his three games with starting snaps and over 20 touches (32, 32, and 25), he delivered Dalvin Cook-type production in fantasy points (23.10, 27.30, and 21.40) in PPR formats. However, over his other 13 matchups, Mattison scored only 55.60 combined fantasy points. In addition, his yards per rush (3.7) and yards per catch (7.1) came in at career lows.
Last season, he saw his role slide to the lowest point in his four years (374 combined yards with six touchdowns and 15 catches on 89 touches). Mattison finished with the second-most running back snaps (304 – 24.8%). His decline in chances was due to Dalvin Cook staying healthier in 2022. On the downside, Mattison gained only 3.8 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per rush. His only playable fantasy game came in Week 18 (10/54/2 with one catch for six yards).
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, Mattison ranks 31st at running back as they wait for the Vikings to give some inside on their running back plans in 2023. He’s shown flashes over his career, suggesting 200 touches are within reach. On the downside, Mattison doesn’t have the resume or ceiling to keep the starting job if he stumbles out of the gate. My starting point is 1,000 combined yards with six to eight scores and 30 catches. His outlook will fluctuate over the summer.
Ty Chandler
The Vikings took a flier on Chandler in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He saw action over five years in college, leading to 3,810 combined yards with 30 touchdowns and 72 catches. His stock rose in 2021 after switching to North Carolina (182/1,092/13 with 14 catches for 207 yards and one score).Â
Chandler brings elite speed (4.38 40-yard dash) to Minnesota. His hands grade higher than
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE VIKINGS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
