2024 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview The 2023 Saints were top-10 in points scored and allowed but came up just short of the NFC playoffs at 9-8. In his third season at the helm, Dennis Allen will need to get […]
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference […]
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7
Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference battle that opened at a lowly 42.5 and dropped. The FullTime FantasyThursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 breaks down the Saints/Jaguars game from a fantasy, DFS, and sports betting lens.
Doug Pederson’s Jaguars have won three straight after an embarrassing home loss to the Houston Texans. That included a pair of victories in London. Jacksonville is 2-0 on the road. However, few teams have as strong of a home-field advantage as the New Orleans Saints.
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Speaking of the Saints, Dennis Allen’s squad is 3-3 after they too were defeated by Houston. However, that loss came on the road and was much more competitive. New Orleans has scored 20 or fewer points in five of their six games, and looking at the depressed total, it could be another low-scoring Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 game to handicap.
Subsequently, the Saints are mere 1-point favorites, with an implied game score of 21-19.
Matchup
TEAM
OFFENSE
PASS
RUSH
YDS/PLAY
POINTS
Jacksonville Jaguars
12
12
15
20
10
New Orleans Saints
17
15
23
26
24
Unsurprisingly, Pederson’s Jaguars squad has been better offensively. Jacksonville is averaging 23.7 points per game, which is just behind the Chiefs. The Jags also hold an edge at every skill position, making them the more fantasy-friendly roster.
However, Jacksonville’s offensive line has struggled. The Jaguars have allowed Trevor Lawrence to be sacked 16 times and face too many pressures. Lawrence has only 2.46 seconds to throw the ball, which is the second-lowest time in football. That has resulted in him ranking 26th with a -1.2 completion rate over expectation.
Meanwhile, the Saints rank 6th in total defense. Derek Carr has been serviceable under center. However, Carr has thrown only five touchdown passes and the Saints rank 24th in scoring. Carr also has the fewest rushing yards among any NFL quarterback that has started multiple games.
Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to […]
Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report
Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to their skill set. Twelve quarterbacks posted more than 30.00 fantasy points in 2023, with Tua Tagovailoa (33.80 and 31.45) leading the way.
Over four weeks of action, here are the top five scoring quarterbacks this season:
Justin Herbert – 107.80
Josh Allen – 106.00
Kirk Cousins – 99.40
Tua Tagovailoa – 98.80
Lamar Jackson – 97.70
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
Based on his high salary in the DFS market, Mahomes has yet to deliver a winning day over four weeks. He’s averaging two touchdowns, with his best outcome coming in Week 3 (300/3) against the Bears. Only one of his 92 completions gained at least 40 yards (13 in 2022), leading to a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt. His top receiver (Travis Kelce) has been limited to 9.1 yards per catch (12.2 in his career). Rashee Rice (13/140/1) is their leading wideout despite being on the field for 36.9% of the Chiefs’ plays.
Minnesota ranks 24th defending quarterbacks (22.36 FPPG), with one disaster showing vs. the Chargers (465/4). Their wide receivers finished with 32 catches for 415 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets. The Eagles’ wideouts only had eight catches for 160 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets, but they gained 20 yards per catch.
The game total for this matchup is 52, the highest on the main slate on Sunday. Mahomes comes off a down game (203 passing yards with one score and two interceptions) while averaging 35.8 passes (38.1 in 2022 and 38.7 in 2021). His matchup bodes well for an uptick game, especially if Minnesota scores more than 25 points.
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Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback […]
Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report
Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback in the DFS market was Andy Dalton (27.15). Fifteen QBs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, three less than in Week 2 (only 10 in Week 1). Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after three games:
Kirk Cousins (86.45)
Justin Herbert (81.75)
Tua Tagovailoa (81.00)
Patrick Mahomes (76.45)
Jordan Love (75.15)
Joe Burrow (34.65 fantasy points – 30th) remains the weak link of the top-tier quarterbacks drafted in 2023. C.J. Stroud (63.80) sits 12th, one notch above Mac Jones (60.70). Four quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points each week – Cousins, Herbert, Mahomes, and Love. Daniel Jones has two bust weeks (7.50 and 6.35) vs. the Cowboys and 49ers while booming in Week 2 (34.95) vs. the Cardinals.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
Three weeks into the 2023 DFS season, Allen is still looking for his first impact game. He’s been the best fantasy quarterback over the past three years, scoring at least 30.00 fantasy points seven times in 2022 (twice vs. the Dolphins – 31.70 and 39.90). The Bills’ offense has a much better structure in the run game over the last two weeks due to the play of James Cook (32/221 with six catches for 50 yards). Surprisingly, Allen is gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 7.6 in 2022, which was also an issue in 2021 (6.8).
Miami’s defense had massive issues with the Chargers’ run game in Week 1 (40/233/3). Over the next two weeks, they cleaned up this problem (25/88 and 20/69). But New England and Denver haven’t run the ball well in 2023. In addition, Allen’s right arm forces the Dolphins to defend the whole field. The Broncos did have three completions of 25 yards or more in Week 3. Miami has eight sacks with increased pressure on the quarterback this season.
The over/under for this game is 53.5. Also, the echo in my head from a friend of mine is that this game total usually falls on the underside…or was it the over? Either way, Allen has the “due feeling,” and his recent resume vs. the Dolphins suggests four times his salary (or more than 32.00 fantasy points) is well within reach. In addition, the Miami should push the issue on the scoreboard.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)
After a slow passing start in Week 1 (229/1) against Miami, Herbert took advantage of his last two favorable matchups…
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Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score […]
Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report
In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Fifteen quarterbacks scored between 21.50 to 28.50 fantasy points, compared to nine in Week 1.
Here are the top five quarterbacks two weeks into the season:
Kirk Cousins (56.10)
Tua Tagovailoa (49.55)
Justin Herbert (48.40)
Patrick Mahomes (48.05)
Russell Wilson (47.95)
Joe Burrow (22.70 fantasy points – 32nd) is the biggest underachiever so far in 2023.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)
The lack of identity at wide receiver does hurt his explosiveness, at least out of the gate. Kadarius Toney leads the team in targets (10), but he only has 49 yards receiving. Justin Watson (5/107 on nine targets) has been a surprise, and he leads the team in receiving yards. Travis Kelce (4/26/1) didn’t have the same bounce in his step in Week 2 while appearing to be favoring his knee at the end of last week’s game. On the positive side, Mahomes continues to produce fantasy points.
The Bears’ defense allowed eight touchdowns and three field goals over the first two matchups while allowing 65 points. They only have one sack, with quarterbacks (Jordan Love – 257/3 and Baker Mayfield – 334/1) gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Chicago has played better than expected vs. the run (66/212/2 – 3.2 yards per carry). Wide receivers (21/348/3 on 35 targets) have a low catch rate (60.0%) but average 16.6 yards per catch.
Two weeks into the season, Kansas City only has four touchdowns, averaging 18.5 points per game. Mahomes looks poised to post a high-level game, and his wide receiving corps remains cheap in the DFS market. Unfortunately, he must score 33.00 fantasy points at DraftKings (28.00 at FanDuel) to be in the winning equation. His over/under in passing yards (295.5) at Underdog appears too low based on my projections (312/3), especially if Mahomes hits on one long touchdown. The key to his ceiling is Justin Fields leading the Bears to at least 20 points.
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After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]
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NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Saints – 3 Over/Under: 41.5 After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). […]
NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview
Betting Line: Saints – 3
Over/Under: 41.5
After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.
New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.
Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.
The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside.
The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.
Derrick Henry
Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats).
His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary.
DeAndre Hopkins…
To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…
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2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]
2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championshipdynasty, redraft, or high-stakessquad, FullTime Fantasy memberswill have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Derek Carr
In his eighth season with Las Vegas in 2021, Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). On the downside, he finished below the league average in touchdowns (23) with a rise in interceptions (14). Carr passed for over 300 yards in seven of his 18 games (including the postseason), but he failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any matchup. Carr was the 12th highest-scoring quarterback (324.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues despite his low-scoring ability. Before 2021 (40/108), he chipped in with some scores on the ground over the previous three seasons (24/47/1, 27/82/2, and 39/140/3).
Coming into last season, his completion rate (68.7) was a strength from 2018 to 2021. Unfortunately, the addition of Davante Adams (100/1,516/14) gave him a true WR1, but his completion rate (60.8) was the lowest since his rookie season (58.1) in 2014. In addition, Carr had a regression in yards per pass attempt (7.0 – 7.8 from 2019 to 2021). The Raiders ended up benching him over their final two matchups. He had repeated weakness in interceptions (14) and touchdowns (24). Carr passed for more than 300 yards in two games (303/2 and 307/2) while delivering three scores in only two contests. Nine of his interceptions came over his last five starts.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the passing history of the Saints with Drew Brees behind center, Carr should throw the ball more than 600 times in 2023 while regaining his lost completion rate by throwing many passes to the running back position. WR Chris Olave (72/1,042/4) played well in his rookie season, and WR Rashid Shaheed (28/488/2) showed growth late in the year, but New Orleans still needs a second elite option in the passing game. A Michael Thomas sighting would help Carr’s passing upside. In late June, he ranked 18th at quarterback while on a path to pass for 4,300 yards and only a slight progression in touchdowns.
Other Options: Jameis Winston, Jake Haener, Taysom Hill
— Running Backs —
When reviewing the rushing data for the Saints in 2022, I need to pull out Taysom Hill’s production (96/575/7) to understand better their running back opportunity. When inputting the team stats last year, I treated Hill as a WR/TE instead of a quarterback, misrepresenting the team’s rushing profile. New Orleans’ backs gained 1,926 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 85 catches (19.51 FPPG in PPR formats). They set three-year lows in catches (85), receiving yards (650), receiving touchdowns (2), and targets (107) while accounting for 25.2% of their receiving yards.
Alvin Kamara
The lack of quarterback play hurt Kamara in two areas in 2021. He finished with a career-low 3.7 yards per carry (5.0 over his first four years) while having a sharp decline in his value in the passing game (47/439/5 – over 80 catches each season from 2017 to 2020). Despite missing four games with a knee injury, Kamara set a career-high in rushing attempts (240). He averaged 22.1 touches, besting his previous top in 2018 (18.3 per game). Kamara gained 100 combined yards in eight of his 13 starts, leading to 18.05 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His path projected over 17 matchups would have pushed him into the top five in running back scoring.
Last season, Kamara missed another two games with an early season rib issue. Over 15 starts, he gained 1,387 combined yards with a career-low four touchdowns and 57 catches. New Orleans gave him the ball 280 times (16.5 per game) while gaining only 4.0 yards per rush. Kamara rushed for more than 100 yards in two matchups (23/103 and 23/107). His role in the passing game was diminished over his final five contests (2/11, 2/13, 2/34, 1/7, and 1/3). He posted one impact showing (158 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches).
Fantasy Outlook: Kamara has a court date on July 31st regarding an off-the-field incident early in 2022. Based on his ranking in late June (32nd) and the addition of Jamaal Williams, a suspension appears looming if found guilty. I’ll defer on his outlook until his situation clears up in August.
Jamaal Williams
The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week) in 2021. He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). Williams missed four games with thigh, hip, and Covid-19 issues. He posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.
Despite a minimal uptick in yards per rush (4.1), Williams had the best rushing opportunity (262/1,066) of his career, highlighted by 17 touchdowns. His role in the passing game (12/73) was a career-low. He scored two touchdowns or more in six matchups while gaining more than 100 yards in two games (19/108/2 and 22/144/1). The Lions had him on the field for only 40.6% of their plays.
Fantasy Outlook: Williams gives the Saints veteran experience in case…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE SAINTS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
