Saturday Playoff Preview
The 5-game NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off Saturday with a pair of AFC matchups. FullTime Fantasy‘s Saturday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective.
And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes!
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)
Time: 4:00 Eastern
Line: Chargers -3
Total: 42.5
Money Line: Los Angeles -156, Houston +136
Chargers Offense
Jim Harbaugh coached the Chargers to an impressive one-year turnaround. Harbaugh inherited a team that went 5-12 and instilled a new culture, resulting in a postseason appearance in Year One. However, Harbaugh’s main influence was on the defense, which allowed the fewest points in the league.
LA’s offense ranked 20th overall, including 19th in passing and 17th in rushing. The Chargers did rank 11th in scoring, but points will be at a premium against a Houston defense that ranked 14th in points allowed.
Although Houston’s pass defense ranked 6th overall, the Texans allowed an AFC-worst 31 touchdown passes to quarterbacks. That makes Justin Herbert a solid start. Our RDA* projections have Herbert in the top half of Week 19 fantasy signal-callers. Additionally, Herbert ran for 306 yards and two scores this season, which is another area Houston struggled against.
Houston surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, which makes J.K. Dobbins a lesser option in this slate. Dobbins also won’t catch many passes. That makes him game-script-dependent. However, in a game where the Chargers are favored, Dobbins has a decent shot at seeing 15-plus touches and getting into the end zone.
There isn’t a ton of upside behind Dobbins. Gus Edwards has been limited and Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins have split RB3 duties. Additionally, the recent signing of Ezekiel Elliott complicates the complementary roles. Avoid.
Thumbs up for WR Ladd McConkey. The rookie wideout was fantasy’s WR10 in the last three weeks, reeling in 19-of-24 targets for 276 yards and a score. Houston allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to enemy receivers, making McConkey a top-10 play in our Week 19 RDA* projections.
Quentin Johnston offers some boom potential against a secondary that has been decimated by injuries and is vulnerable to big plays. Josh Palmer is OUT, opening up more snaps for D.J. Chark.
At tight end, the Chargers will use Wil Dissly and Stone Smartt. However, Dissly out-snapped Smartt 43-14 last week.
Texans Offense
While the Chargers took vast strides in 2024, the Houston Texans regressed. Facing a first-place schedule will do that, but DeMeco Ryan’s squad simply wasn’t as good on offense. After ranking seventh in passing in 2023, Houston dipped to 21st.
There is no denying that C.J. Stroud‘s play dropped off. His metrics and efficiency declined across the board. Meanwhile, he struggled to make the same throws he made as a rookie and he plummeted to 34th in pressured completion rate (53.1%). The Chargers can be challenged through the air. However, Stroud has only thrown 2-plus TDs in a game three times since Week 7.
RB Joe Mixon has also cooled off. Mixon hasn’t scored more than 10.6 PPR points in any of his last four games. Meanwhile, the Chargers allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position in 2024, including a league-low four rushing scores. Although the volume should be there, this is not a great week to pay up for Mixon’s salary in DFS.
Houston’s offense has also been plagued by injuries. Nico Collins is the last man standing at wideout and will undoubtedly be the focal point in this game. Collins hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 13 but has scored three touchdowns. Our RDA* projections have Collins in for 5.4 grabs, 73 yards, and a 50/50 shot at another score.
After Collins, Houston will trot out the uninspiring trio of Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson. However, none of these players are anything more than DFS dart throws in a poor matchup.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz is the best bet to see the second-most targets. However, the Chargers allowed a league-low two scores to opposing TEs this season, which severely caps his upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Time: 8:00 Eastern
Line: Baltimore -10
Total: 43.5
Money Line: Pittsburgh +400, Baltimore -550
Steelers Offense
The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five matchups with Baltimore. Additionally, the UNDER has hit in 8-of-11 in this AFC North rivalry. However, that paints an ugly picture for Pittsburgh’s offense- a unit that scored all of two touchdowns against Baltimore this season.
QB Russell Wilson averaged 211 passing yards, one TD, and one INT in two games versus Baltimore. That’s precisely where our Week 19 RDA* projections have Wilson, making him an unappealing fantasy option.
While the Ravens have struggled against the pass, Baltimore’s league-best offense and excellent run defense make the Ravens a poor matchup for running backs. Pittsburgh will use both of their backs, with Najee Harris leading the way. In those two prior matchups, Harris accumulated an innocuous 105 rushing yards with four receptions.
Jaylen Warren was better in those games and offers more appeal as a double-digit underdog. Warren reeled in all nine of his targets against the Ravens, racking up 71 receiving yards and averaging over four yards per carry.
Paying up for George Pickens is a hard pill to swallow after last week’s embarrassment. However, this is a good rebound spot for Pickens, who caught 8-of-12 targets for 89 yards back in Week 11 against the Ravens. Pickens has topped 75 yards in three of his five career matchups versus Baltimore, who also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receiver this season. As double-digit dogs, Pickens will see a favorable game script.
Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are the next best bets but offer low floors.
However, TE Pat Freiermuth gets a positive matchup. Baltimore surrendered 12.9 PPR points per game to enemy tight ends and Muth has averaged 8.94 fantasy points per contest in his last six. Although the Ravens did a superb job defending Freiermuth in their two games, he’s getting enough volume to be a top-5 option in our RDA* projections.
Ravens Offense
On the surface, Lamar Jackson looks like the top QB to target in this slate. However, Jackson has struggled against Pittsburgh throughout his career. Jackson is only 3-5 versus the Steelers, with four TDs, seven interceptions, 7 fumbles, and has taken 20 sacks.
If Jackson’s troubles against the Steelers continue, it will be hard to rely on any Baltimore pass-catchers. Especially with Zay Flowers unavailable. He’s not a fade, but expectations should be lowered.
In Week 16, Derrick Henry ran for 162 yards against the Steelers in Baltimore. Henry and Tyrone Tracy were the only running backs to top 90 rushing yards against them all season. With the questions surrounding the Raven’s passing attack, expect a healthy dose of King Henry.
Per our Injury Report, Zay Flowers has been ruled OUT. That puts Rashod Bateman in line to be Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver. However, Pittsburgh did a good job defending Bateman, holding him to three grabs for 44 yards and a score in their two meetings.
Nelson Agholor would be the No. 2. However, Agholor hasn’t played since Week 15. Tylan Wallace will also see an increased snap share but is little more than a DFS dart throw.
The Steelers ranked 22nd at defending tight ends. That, and the lack of depth at wide receiver make both of Baltimore’s tight ends valuable. Mark Andrews led all NFL tight ends with 11 touchdown grabs, including one in Week 16 against this foe.
Isaiah Likely also scored in that game and put up a solid 4/75/0 line in Pittsburgh. Andrews is our top-ranked tight end in this slate, while Likey ranks seventh.
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