Week 2 NFL Player Props
Week 1 is in the books and if you read this column, you had a very profitable week! Last week, our picks absolutely crushed with a 6-1 record! And with multiple units on Brian Robinson Jr., we are up 4.85 Units to begin the 2023 NFL season. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 2 NFL Player Props.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 2 NFL Player Props!
Joe Burrow OVER 231.5 Passing Yards (-110)
It appears everyone is jumping off the Joey B train and even with Tee Higgins looking questionable to suit up, I still think Burrow is poised for a bounceback effort against Cincinnati’s rivals, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In Week 1, Burrow struggled against the New England Patriots, completing a solid 21 of 29 passes but for a measly 164 passing yards and 0 touchdowns. That didn’t cut it against New England and that definitely won’t cut it against the defending champs.
With another week of practice with Ja’Marr Chase after his “hold in” and more reps with rookie Andreis Iosivas and Jermaine Burton, expect Burrow to get back on track and show us a different Bengals team in Week 2.
Including the postseason, Joey B is 3-1 against the Chiefs over his career. And in his two regular season games against Kansas City, Burrow is averaging a whopping 366 passing yards per game with a monumental 78.6 completion percentage and a perfect six-touchdown-to-zero-
If there was any matchup I thought would help Burrow get out of his rut, it’s this one against a team that seems to bring out the best in him. Look for the Burrow-Chase connection to be very strong in Week 2. Perhaps something similar to the Lamar Jackson-Isaiah Likely connection the Chiefs struggled to contain in their season-opening victory. This line is simply way too low so smash the over with multiple units.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I’ve been very high on B-Rob the past year and he cashed in last week in Washington’s debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Although he was mostly bottled up, he still surpassed his rushing yards line and managed to punch in a touchdown. This week, the young stud faces a New York Giants run defense that was dominated by Minnesota’s Aaron Jones in Week 1 to the tune of 94 yards on just 14 carries.
In three of four games against the Giants in his career, Robinson has eclipsed this line, averaging 14.5 carries for 70.3 rushing yards per game. New York surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL last season and Week 1 did not indicate that they made enough improvements in that aspect of the game to change that trend based on Aaron Jones’ success running in the trenches.
Whether or not the Commanders jump out to a big lead or not (though I think they will), game flow should favor Robinson. The Commanders will continue to rely heavily on the rushing game even after Jayden Daniels’ impressive debut. Robinson should continue to see a big workload despite Austin Ekeler’s presence and Daniels’ propensity to run. B-Rob will continue to be a Giants killer. Smash the Over.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (+115)
A running back who dominated 100% of the team’s carries in Week 1 at even money or better? That’s a jackpot, especially on a squad projected to score 21.5 points. JT was the undisputed workhorse in Week 1, handling all 16 running back carries, turning them into 48 yards, and punching in a touchdown from the 5-yard line. Sure, Anthony Richardson may vulture some goal-line glory, but Shane Steichen knows he’s got to protect his rookie QB from unnecessary hits this season if the Colts have any shot at winning this competitive division, especially after seeing what happened to Tua Tagovailoa on Thursday Night Football.
The stars are aligning for Taylor in this looming matchup against a Packers defense fresh off a trip to Brazil, where they got gashed for 144 rushing yards and surrendered two rushing scores. Whether this game turns into a nail-biter or the Packers’ Malik Willis stumbles and the Colts grab the lead, both scenarios scream: run the ball with Taylor! I’m expecting a ton of volume and a breakout performance from the former Wisconsin man in Week 2.
And here’s the kicker—when guys like Saquon Barkley have odds as short as -210 for a TD, getting Taylor at +115 feels like highway robbery. If Taylor finds the end zone again this week, expect those odds to shrink fast. Get in while the getting’s good!
Stefon Diggs UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After Diggs’ modest six-catch, 33-yard performance (though he did score two touchdowns), the sportsbooks are starting to adjust. But not quite enough!
Diggs is still a crucial piece of the Texans’ offense. He’s great at working the short and intermediate routes, and he’s become their go-to guy near the goal line. He’s perfectly fine stacking up those short catches like coins in a piggy bank. However, his longest grab in Week 1 was just 10 yards. To put that in perspective, the Bears managed to keep Will Levis’ longest completion to 15 yards, and even Calvin Ridley— the Titans’ top receiver—was held to 50 yards. And Diggs simply isn’t the deep-ball threat that he was in Buffalo or Minnesota.
But let’s be real, C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense are a much scarier beast, with two other top-notch receiving options and a strong run game to boot. If Diggs stays heavily involved, I’m expecting a similar performance as Week 1 in which he’ll manage to catch five or six balls for 40 or 50 yards. Keep an eye on those shorter routes and goal-line targets—he’ll be busy! Just not busy enough to surpass his line. Take the Under.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.5 Receptions (-150)
CeeDee Lamb posted a modest five catches for 61 yards in Dallas’ Week 1 win over the Browns. However, it was encouraging to see him targeted 10 times despite the game script not being in his favor as the Cowboys cruised to a 27-3 lead by the two-minute warning in the second quarter.
Don’t forget, Lamb’s 135 receptions in 2023 were the sixth-most in NFL history, and his 1,749 receiving yards ranked ninth all-time! Now, the oddsmakers are gearing up for a potential shootout as the Cowboys host the Saints on Sunday.
Derek Carr and the New Orleans offense looked phenomenal last Sunday in their blowout victory over the Carolina Panthers. Even if you can attribute some of their success to Carolina’s lack of personnel and talent, you can’t dismiss it entirely. If the Cowboys want to win this game, they are going to have to work for it. The offense should run through their electric playmaker, especially with tight end Jake Ferguson battling a knee injury that may keep him sidelined and a running game that leaves a lot to be desired.
Expect Dak Prescott to look early and often for his newly-paid receiver on Sunday. Lamb is going to cruise to eight or nine receptions and will clear this prop easily should the game remain even somewhat competitive. Look for Lamb to show why he was the top wideout selected in the majority of PPR fantasy football leagues heading into 2024.
Colby Parkinson OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I am smashing the Over and throwing a little sprinkle on Parkinson as an anytime TD scorer, too. Parkinson opened the season strong with four catches for 47 yards against Detroit, and he’s primed to play a bigger role in the Rams’ offense moving forward. With Tyler Higbee on the active/PUP list due to a knee injury, and backup Davis Allen seeing just one target in Week 1, Parkinson looks like the man to watch.
And with Puka Nacua also dealing with a knee issue, Parkinson will step into an even bigger role in the Rams’ pass-heavy attack. Copper Kupp saw 21 targets in Week 1 but Sean McVay knows that the team has to spread the ball around. They can’t be so one-dimensional and the Arizona Cardinals are obviously going to do everything they can to take away Kupp as an option. Parkinson ran a team-high 42 routes at tight end and was on the field for a whopping 87% of snaps in Week 1. I anticipate him serving as Matthew Stafford’s security blanket on short routes to the flat and across the middle, especially with all the injuries sustained on that offensive line.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Parkinson in a juicy matchup in Week 2. He’s going up against Jalen Thompson, who is graded just above 50%. Also, Arizona gave up eight receiving touchdowns to tight ends last year. Parkinson is poised for a breakout performance in his expanding role with Los Angeles and this line is low. Buckle up… Parkinson could be in for a big performance.
