2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR
These days, drafting early-round wide receivers has become the most popular fantasy football draft strategy. Because so many #ZeroRB zealots are pushing up the value of these wideouts, it is imperative to know the safest approach to a foolproof Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR.
I have to admit I have a weakness for the wide receiver position. I like strength with my wideouts, allowing me to make fewer decisions when setting my starting lineup. Here’s a look at the top 12 wide receivers over the last four seasons.
Top 12 Wide Receiver Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
Identifying WR1s
Last year, the average top 12 wide receivers averaged 98 catches for 1,362 yards and 8.9 touchdowns, translating to 290.93 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 18.18 points per week. The WR1 position had its best output in 2015 (19.26 FPPG), 2018 (19.06 FPPG), and 2021 (19.02 FPPG) over the past 11 seasons.
Also, stacking your top wideout with his real quarterback is a proven strategy. Check out our extensive look at how to approach team stacking in 2023, which breaks down the ideal stacks for all 32 franchises.
Fantasy Point Totals WR1 Observations
Overall, an elite three-down running back has an edge almost every season over a top-tier wide receiver. However, there will be an exception when a top wideout catches plus receptions or scores a high volume of touchdowns.
- Marvin Harrison 2004 – 143/1,722/11
- Randy Moss 2007 – 98/1,523/23
- Wes Welker 2011 – 122/1,569/9
- Calvin Johnson 2011 – 96/1,681/16
- Antonio Brown 2014 – 129/1,698/13, 2015 – 136/1,834/10
- Julio Jones 2015 – 136/1,871/8
- DeAndre Hopkins 2018 – 115/1,572/11
- Michael Thomas 2019 – 149/1,725/9
- Stefon Diggs 2020 – 127/1,535/8
- Davante Adams 2020 – 115/1,374/19, 2021 – 123/1,553/11, and 2022 – 100.1,516/14
- Cooper Kupp 2021 – 145/1,947/16
- Justin Jefferson 2022 – 128/1,809/9
- Tyreek Hill – 119/1,710/7
At any position, scoring plus touchdowns will separate the top players from the field.
Over the last 20 years, we have seen some exceptional running backs that posted some crazy touchdown totals, highlighted by the great success of Christian McCaffrey in 2019 (471.20 fantasy points). Cooper Kupp set the new ceiling at wide receiver in 2021 in fantasy points (440.40).
In most years, a handful of receivers will score between 280-300 fantasy points each year in PPR leagues. Over the last nine seasons, 50 wide receivers scored more than 280 fantasy points in PPR leagues (13 over the past two years).
One of my goals on draft day is to eliminate as many weekly lineup decisions as possible. The more decisions a fantasy manager has to make from week to week, the higher the chance of being wrong. The wide receiver position is very volatile. If a fantasy team has too many players that look the same, it is nearly impossible to maximize your success over a long football season.
A fantasy manager that decides to draft a wide receiver strong team in PPR formats eliminates much of the decision-making process for two, possibly three wideout positions. This drafter MUST roster one strong running back as the core of his roster.
Wide Receiver 13 to 24 Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
Targeting Quality WR2s
It is interesting to see the gaps tighten up at the WR2 position over the past few years. Last season, the second 12 wide receivers averaged 75 catches for 940 yards and five touchdowns. The top four wideouts in this grouping averaged 231.65 fantasy points (82/1,071/7). The difference between the top WR2 (Tyler Lockett) and the 12th option (Chris Olave) was 39.10 fantasy points.
As I mentioned earlier, the easiest mistakes in fantasy football will happen at the wide receiver position. There’s nothing worse than having five wide receivers that have similar value. It is incredibly challenging to predict whom to start every week. The FFWC has two flex spots in the starting lineup, so the wide receiver decisions don’t get magnified as much as in traditional leagues.
A WR2 averaged about 14.65 fantasy points per week in 2021, the highest level of success for WR2s over the last 10 seasons (2013 – 14.17, 2014 – 13.87, 2015 – 14.25, 2016 – 13.72, 2017 – 12.75, 2018 – 13.57, 2019 – 13.99, 2020 – 14.31, 2021 – 14.65, and 2022 – 13.75).
The RB2s averaged 12.69 fantasy points last year.
Another great way to prepare to DOMINATE your draft is using FullTime Fantasy’s Mock Draft Simulator.
Fantasy Point Totals WR2 Observations
The second wide receiver for most fantasy teams is a steady piece to the puzzle. When making this selection, the goal is to find a solid 200+ point receiver in PPR leagues. The closer we get to the live draft season, the inventory will tighten up.
There are about 17 wide receivers in most seasons that will score more than 225 fantasy points in PPR leagues (19 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 12 in 2017, 17 in 2018, 17 in 2019, 19 in 2020, 22 in 2021, and 17 in 2022). So as much as some fantasy managers want to finesse the position, they can be short at wide receiver if other drafters decide to triple up at wideout with their first three or four draft picks.
A fantasy manager needs to identify the opportunities at each position to help them determine which direction they want to go when building their team. A drafter from an early position will have a much different thought process than someone drawing from a backend draft slot. For example, a team selecting two wide receivers early in drafts will be shopping in another aisle than a player choosing two running backs with their first two picks. Every draft will be different, but the opportunities after round five will be somewhat consistent.
Finally, check out our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for the Quarterbacks and Running Backs.
Lastly, If you have time to prepare, make sure you mock in our Mock Draft World Championships. No better way to practice for the real thing.
Finally, are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2023 Fantasy Football World Championships.
