A Strategy Guide for Drafting RBs
Opportunity reigns supreme in fantasy football. However, no position is as susceptible to nagging injuries as much as the running back. That means backup running backs with high-touch upside should be on every drafter’s radar. A Strategy Guide for Drafting RBs explores the statistical target points of these handcuff RB targets and where to target them in your draft.
Oftentimes we see these under-the-radar backups become fantasy football breakouts when given the chance to start. After filling out your starting lineup, these are the potential difference-makers you want to target in the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy football drafts.
This Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: RB will help you identify those highly coveted backup running backs to target in 2023.
Running Backs 25 to 36 Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
RB3/Flex: Rostering a third productive running back in fantasy football can be gold if you have strength in your other positions. An excellent third option will help you in bye weeks. Also, that player could also be serviceable at the flex position. The third set of 12 running backs from 2022 averaged 156.78 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 9.80 points per week. That fell in line with the previous three seasons (154.61, 151.06, and 152.82).
Typically, a tier of 12 backs will hold about a 60-point edge each year over the next grouping. In 2022, the RB1s averaged 282.90 fantasy points in PPR formats, with the top four players (341.88) carrying the load. The RB2s scored between 227.40 and 179.70 fantasy points. The RB3s averaged 156.78 fantasy points. The 60-point gaps don’t sound like much, but it adds up throughout a fantasy season. Making the postseason will be challenging if a roster is weak at two positions.
Fantasy Point Totals RB3 Observations
It is imperative to draft some upside running backs on your team, but they will hurt you if you are forced to play them due to an injury to one of your top options if they are not getting regular playing time. Fantasy football is a simple game. Most of the action will happen inside the first 12 rounds of drafts in 12-team leagues. Every fantasy team should have their starting lineup after eight or nine rounds. Therefore, their decisions from rounds nine to 12 will be critical. Especially if your team has a weakness at a position.
In 12-team PPR leagues, a top roster must score close to 2,050 fantasy points over a 14-week schedule (to be in the playoff hunt. A top team could score more than 2,200 points.
A fair goal from your starting quarterback and first two running backs would be to score 55 fantasy points (QB – 23+ points, RB1 – 18+ points, and RB2 – 14+ points). A top RB, a solid RB2, and a mid-tier quarterback should deliver that score from an early-draft position.
By selecting later in the draft, an elite quarterback with two-second level running backs may deliver a similar score. It then would come down to the wide receiver and tight end positions to reach your target number to draft a competitive team.
After looking over each group of running backs, it is interesting to see how close the final scores are each year when considering the vast changes in playing time and the high rate of injuries at the position. The player pool changes yearly, creating different tiers at each starting roster position. The key is gaining an edge whenever possible. Also, identifying when there is an apparent drop-off in talent at each position using a tiered cheatsheet.
Running Back 37 to 48 Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
The fourth group of 12 running backs averaged 7.10 fantasy points in PPR leagues in 2022, making it difficult to time if forced to slide them into their starting lineup.
When building your running back depth on draft day, the first goal is finding an edge at RB1. This player needs to be a three-down back with value in rushing, receiving, and touchdowns. If the available options don’t meet these qualifications, a drafter must gain an edge at another position.
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The most successful fantasy managers will make these evaluations before draft day once they know their draft position. The goal is to determine the best start for a fantasy team based on the current draft flow or ADPs. The more thought a drafter does before the draft, the better chance of making better decisions when on the clock on draft day.
It is also important not to be naïve when identifying an upside player. A ton of information is written in the fantasy football market, and the fantasy community will come to the same conclusion with breakout-type players.
In some cases, there may only be one running back viewed as a difference-maker going early in the second round. If drafting late in the first round, the data points to a “targeted back” being available with your second pick. This deduction leads to looking at the best options at other positions with their first selection while most likely settling in at the wide receiver position unless a top running back with three-down ability slides in the draft.
After reviewing the best options at wide receiver, the player pool may dictate multiple players of similar value. When seeing this develop, a fantasy manager must be open to moving the “targeted back” up to the first round to avoid being sniped by another sharp drafter. By doing this, a fantasy manager accepts the closeness in value at the wide receiver position while knowing there may be a chance their number one wide receiver option may still slide to them in the second round.
Often late in the draft season, the edge players with upside will see their draft value rise. However, it’s essential to consider each player’s real upside. Be careful not to overvalue players, where you draft a breakout player before options with proven resumes.
If you get beat at the RB1 position, the next step down should be a pass-catching back with early-down ability. Drafters often look to a running back with early down action plus scoring ability. Unfortunately, this running back leads to many failed scores when failing to deliver a touchdown. Within each of these decisions, fantasy managers must also look at the value of the running backs in each offense to understand their ceiling and floor.
The running position runs out of talent quickly. But drafters must understand that multiple starting opportunities will be created during the season by injuries. If I miss the top RB2 options, I will focus on finding the best pass-catching talent in PPR leagues to fill the short-term gap. The more outs on your roster at running back, the better chance of filling a weakness at some point later in the season.
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