2019 Fantasy Football: Top 12 QB ADP Analysis

Shawn Childs recaps the Top 12 QB ADP with analysis and where he feels comfortable drafting his starting QB in this year's drafts.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

ADP Analysis: QB1 | QB2 | Starting RBs | Backup RBs | Starting WRs | Backup WRs | TEs

(Editor’s note: To view the best ADP available anywhere online, please check out our Advanced ADP tool, which pulls draft results only from the 10 most recent FFWC drafts. Only the best and cash-winning players play high-stakes so this ADP is simply a cut above!)

The best Fantasy owners in the high-stakes market like to cheat the QB position. The quarterback inventory in 2019 has plenty of depth with many backend QBs featuring WRs with high ranking value. If a WR is well respected in drafts, it only makes sense that his QB should have a reasonable floor. This theory will lead to some unexpected late opportunities at the QB position each draft season.

There have been many seasons in the NFL when a QB offers an impact separator score. When this happens, they are worth an early draft pick for sure. It’s a fine line trading RB and WR strength to land a stud QB. Even if you decide to pick a QB between round six and round ten, you could be losing out on a critical backup player with upside.

When I start looking at my best options at QB, I’m looking for a team that has three strong WRs, one elite pass-catching back, and a solid passing TE. A QB with five options in the passing game will force a defense to defend the whole field leading to impact in yards and TDs.

The changing draft flow and depth at the QB have led to many Fantasy owners waiting on QBs in the scoring system at the World Championships this year. Here’s a look at the ADPs for the top 12 QBs in 2019:

FFWC Starting 12 QB ADP

After the doubts about the status of Tyreek Hill have been resolved, Patrick Mahomes has maintained his high draft value (ADP of 52 in the FFWC) while holding a two and half-round cushion over the second choice at QB in 2019 (Andrew Luck).

Mahomes was a beast last year (over 5,300 combined yards with 52 TDs) while being a value on draft day. This year he’s fully priced, and a Fantasy owner will be given up a RB, WR, or TE by drafting him in the fifth round. There is no doubt he has immense talent, but can he repeat his success?

Deshaun Watson typically gets drafted as the second-best option at QB in most formats, but his draft ADP (85) is a tad below Andrew Luck (84) in the ten most recent drafts in the Fantasy Football World Championships. Watson is a year removed from his significant knee injury while showing explosiveness in his game. Luck played great last year with an improving offensive line along with some exciting options at the receiving positions.

I’m giving Watson the edge due to his options at WR along with his value as a runner. I expect improvement in the pass blocking by the Texans. The key here is the health of Houston’s WRs. Luck has the better resume in his career, and he showed the ability to make lesser talented players better.

Aaron Rodgers is a fade for me based on his ADP (94) and his questions at the WR. Rodgers has a great NFL resume while minimizing his mistakes in the passing game. I don’t see him as being an edge in 2019.

The Browns have a chance to be the 2019 version of the Chiefs’ offense. They have a developing QB with accuracy and a gunslinger mentality along with adding a top WR (Odell Beckham). When added to his already deep options in the passing game, Baker Mayfield looks poised to have a breakout season while falling into the 9th round in many drafts. Draft with confidence, but a lower draft point does help a Fantasy owner develop better depth at RB and WR.

Last year Matt Ryan finished as the second-best QB while being drafted after the 12th round in most leagues. His receiving core remains intact while still offering more upside. As much as like him, I don’t want to pay full price for his success in 2018. Viable top 5 QB who tends to get drafted somewhere between round 9 and 11 in the FFWC.

This next three QBs (Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson) all look to over upside based on their draft value in 2019.

Wentz has all the tools to be a top-five QB, but he did underachieve his skill set last year. Carson should be better after having a full season to regain his health in wounded knee. The Eagles’ defense looks to be moving in the wrong direction, which points to more points if Philly wants to be a winning team this year.

Murray is the buzz guy with exceptional value created by his legs. Fantasy owners have him priced as a top ten QB in 2019 without playing a down in the NFL. Fun player, but he will struggle at times.

Wilson is my target in this area of the draft. His career resume gives him top-five upside while being the 9th QB off the table with an ADP of 139.7 or a late 11th round draft pick. The top RB & WR talent tends to dry up by round 12 in 12-team leagues, which makes Russell priced favorably. Seattle also added a couple of WRs to help Wilson push his passing value higher this year. If he regains his running ability, he’ll be a top-five QB for sure.

Cam Newton comes into August with full clearance from his offseason shoulder injury. Newton blends his running ability with sneaky options in the passing game. Decent floor with his upside tied to the success and development of two young WRs (D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel).

Fantasy owners will fight for Jameis Winston in some drafts, but they don’t price in the downgrade in WR depth, change in coaching staff, and the success of the passing game in 2018 by Ryan Fitzpatrick (2,366 passing yards and 17 TDs in eight games). Winston has two intriguing WRs plus and upside TE, but Jameis will be upside and down from week-to-week.

Goff plays in an elite offense with three top WRs along with an impact pass-catching back. His breakthrough season came in 2018, but he looks poised to have follow through if Todd Gurley can stay healthy all season.

For more in-depth writeups about QBs and all players in 2019, a Fantasy owner has to look no further than our Team Outlook series, which is complete with player updates and tons of team-specific analysis.

The QB position is vital over the long football season, but a lower level QB can match the elite players over the short-haul in the championship rounds of the high-stakes market. Review the ADPs of all QBs before sitting at the draft table to help you make better decisions in your draft plan.

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Shawn Childs
About Shawn Childs 661 Articles
Shawn Childs has been a high stakes Fantasy baseball and football player since 2004 where he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). In early years of the high stakes market in Fantasy baseball, he was ahead of the curve in player evaluation, draft value, and free agent bidding setting up four top-five finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has four AL-only Auction titles, one NL-only title, and five Main Event titles plus an overall title in 2012 at RTFBC (netted $10,000). This success led to an induction into the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame. His success in the high stakes market led to a career in providing Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football content. On the football side, he’s competed and won in all different formats – auctions, draft championship, main events, and high-dollar leagues. He won 2nd place overall in the 2014 Most Accurate Salary Cap Expert contest at FantasyPros.As a dual-sport player, it was natural to transition to the daily games where he is a “swing for the fences type of guy.” Childs has appeared in one FanDuel NFL Live Final and one DraftKings NFL Live Final, a season-ending tournament which led to a couple of chances to win over $1,000,000.