At this time last season, hardly anyone knew about Phillip Lindsay. After Week 1, he was one of the biggest waiver wire pickups and the Broncos running back helped lead many to Fantasy Football championships.
As we see often, people draft based on last season’s stats and we are looking ahead to forecast the future. Lindsay is often going in third and fourth round of drafts and even went in the second round of a draft. Lindsay is overvalued based on his ADP.
Lindsay wasn’t a big prospect. He wasn’t invited to the NFL combine and wasn’t drafted. Lindsay didn’t get much buzz because he’s a small back at 5-foot-8 and 190 pounds and his athleticism didn’t measure well.
Lindsay had 4,859 yards from scrimmage and scored 39 total touchdowns over four seasons at Colorado. As a rookie for the Broncos, he had 192 carries for 1,037 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns and caught 35 passed for 241 yards and one touchdown. He reached double-digit points in PPR formats in 12 games. Of running backs that had at least 100 carries in 2018, Lindsay was third in yards per carry.
One of the concerns about a small back is durability. Lindsay injured his wrist in Week 16 and suffered ligament damage. Lindsay hasn’t done much work since the surgery and was given a 3-4 month time for recovery, yet he was limited in OTAs in May.
Lindsay had an amazing season, but it’s going to be difficult to repeat. His yards after contact per attempt were outside the top 50 running backs and he didn’t force many missed tackles. His teammate, Royce Freeman, was better in these metrics. Freeman was the back getting the hype for the Broncos last season, often going in the third round and Lindsay was better. Still, Freeman wasn’t bad in some underlying stats and there’s talk he will split with Lindsay.
The Broncos changed the coaching staff and there will be a new scheme, also a potential negative for Lindsay. He should still be a big part of the passing game, since he excelled at it in college and last season as he caught 74.5 percent of his targets, but he didn’t have many big plays, averaging 6.9 yards per catch.
While Lindsay had an impressive rookie season, paying for last season’s stats in the third or fourth round is too expensive. There are several signs that the stats will drop and Freeman plays a bigger role. The wrist injury is also worrisome considering the original time line has been off. Based on his ADP in early July, Lindsay is overvalued.
2019 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
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