Green Bay Packers Team Outlook
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Packers Offense Outlook
Last year Green Bay only ran the ball 34.2 percent of the time despite averaging 5.0 yards per rush. The change in coaching staff should lead to a more balanced attack until the offensive line improves in pass protection. Aaron Rodgers can still be a top QB even with league average pass attempts.
Over 11 seasons at the starting QB for the Packers, Aaron has 100-57-1 record with one Super Bowl title. He set career highs in completions (401) and passing attempts (610) in 2016 while delivering the second season of his career with 40 TDs or more. Only once in his career has Rodgers passed for over 4,500 yards (2011 – 4,643). Aaron has a great TD to Int ratio (338:80) in his career. Last year Aaron passed 4,442 passing yards, but he finished with a career-low 25 passing TDs for a full season.
Over the previous four years, Rodgers needed to settle for too many short passes leading to weaker results in his yards per pass attempt (2015 – 6.7, 2016 – 7.3, 2017 – 7.0, and 2018 – 7.4), which was well below his previous success (8.2, 8.3, 9.2, 7.8, 8.7, and 8.4). In 2019, Rodgers only has one receiver of value (Davante Adams). Green Bay has young talent at WR and TE, but no one stands out as a trusted asset heading into this year. A new coaching staff should help the play calling, while Aaron tends to make the players around him better. His floor is 4,000+ yards and 30+ TDs, which is still below his drafted value. Positive reports at WR in training camp may brighten his 2019 outlook.
Over two seasons at Notre Dame, Kizer threw for 5,805 yards with 47 TDs and 19 Ints. His completion rate (60.7) didn’t offer an edge, and he had regression in his junior season (58.7). DeShone was active as a runner (264/997/18), which adds a dimension to his game. He made a lot of tight throws in college downfield with flashing a solid pump fake. In his rookie season, Kizer 0-15 with 2,894 yards with 11 TDs and 22 Ints. His legs offered upside (77/419/5). The bottom line with DeShone is his decision making in the red zone. His timing was late on too many plays leading to a massive total in Ints. Last year Kizer completed only 47.6 percent of his passes for 187 yards with no TDs and two Ints. Only a clipboard guy at this point of his career.
Other Options: Tim Boyle, Manny Wilkins
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Fantasy owners would love to see Jones stay healthy for a whole season while receiving 300+ touches. He averaged 5.5 yards per rush over his first 214 carries in the NFL. Last year over an eight-game stretch with starting snaps, Aaron gained 738 yards with eight TDs and 22 catches while averaging 15.9 touches per game. He finished with three games with over 100 combined yards, which was highlighted by his success in Week 7 (172 combined yards with two TDs and three catches).
His season started with a two-game suspension and ended with two more missed game with a right knee injury. Last year the Packers’ RBs gained 1,934 combined yards with 13 TDs and 72 catches on 354 touches. Green Bay needs to find a way to get their RBs 450+ touches to help take the pressure off their offensive line and defense. Jones will come into training camp with one of those “best shape of his career stories,” which will add more explosiveness to his runs.
With a push to only 250+ touches, Aaron would gain over 1,300 yards with double-digit TDs and 35+ catches. His game screams more work, but he needs to stay healthy. Fantasy owners will draft him as top end RB2 with the hopes of much higher results if he does indeed receive a higher workload.
One of the more significant mistakes by Fantasy owners in 2018 was overvaluing Williams on draft day. They bought into the coach-speak that he was going to get plenty of touches while receiving a starting job over the first two games with Aaron Jones suspended. After boring Week 1 (15/47) and Week 2 (71 combined yards with three catches on 19 targets), Jamaal found himself on the outside looking in at the RB position in Green Bay over the next 11 games (283 combined yards with one TD and 11 catches on 66 touches).
For the Fantasy owners who bought Aaron Jones insurance, Williams rewarded them in Week 15 (97 combined yards with a TD and four catches) and Week 16 (156 combined yards with one TD and six catches). In his two seasons in the NFL, Jamaal gained only 3.7 yards per carry while showing more explosiveness in the passing game (9.1 yards per catch). Serviceable RB if given volume of touches. If I invested in Jones, I would make sure to buy Williams as insurance, which is helped by a wide range between picks. Possible 125+ touches for 600+ yards with short TDs and 25+ catches.
Other Options: Tra Carson
Adams did indeed turn into the next version of Jordy Nelson in the Packers’ offense in 2018. He caught 111 of his 169 targets for 1,386 yards and 13 TDs. Davante set a career-high in his catch rate (65.7), which was his third straight year of growth. He scored 35 TDs in his last 45 games. Adams gained over 100 yards in five games (9/140/1, 10/132/2, 5/133, 10/166, and 8/119). His high floor was helped by ten games with seven catches or more and nine games with double-digit targets.
The Packers sat him down in Week 17 due to a knee issue. Davante now has a floor of 300+ Fantasy points, which will come as a result of 100+ catches with 1,300+ yards and a dozen or so TD. An excellent safe piece to a Fantasy team who will be drafted as top five WR in 2019.
Midseason, Valdes-Scantling flashed over a five-game stretch (7/68/1, 2/45/1, 3/103, 3/101, and 6/44). Unfortunately, he ended up being a trap over his next seven games (15/179 on 33 targets). His catch rate (52.1) needs plenty of work while offering big play ability (15.3 yards per catch). Eight of his 38 catches went for 20 yards or more, and four receptions gained 40+ yards.
Over four seasons in college, Valdes-Scantling caught 119 passes for 1,832 yards and 12 TDs with his best success coming in his senior year in 2017 (53/879/6). Marquez has elite speed (4.37) while being a hands catcher. He adjusts to the ball well in the deep passing game while showing the ability to create easy throws when defenders give him too much cushion off the line of scrimmage. Valdes-Scantling needs to show he can win tightly contested balls in the NFL and beat press coverage.
Tempting WR2 in the Packers’ offense, but his skill set suggest more of a deep threat with some value on crossing passes and screams. His next step should be 55+ catches for 800+ yards and a handful of TDs.
The Packers gave Allison starting snaps over the first four games, which led to a productive start to the year (5/69/1, 6/64, 2/76/1, and 6/80). Over the last 11 games, Geronimo was only in the field for 30 plays due to a groin injury that required surgery. Green Bay will give him the first shot at taking over the Randall Cobb role in the Packers’ offense. His success early last year gives him a chance at 65+ catches for 800+ yards and five to seven TDs. Allison did catch 66.7 percent of his target in 2018. More of a WR5 for me unless than Packers gives Fantasy owners a cleaner update on his opportunity over the summer.
From Twitter: Geronimo Allison confirmed he’ll be the team’s starting slot WR this year. Why this is big: – 25.6% of Rodgers’ career targets have gone to Slot WRs (4th-most) – 111.6 passer rating when targeting Slot WRs (best)
Other Options: Jake Kumerow, Trevor Davis, Allen Lazard, Jawill Davis, Teo Redding, Darrius Shepherd
Graham’s days as an upside TE are over. Last year he caught 55 of his 89 targets for 636 yards and two TDs. His best four contests (6/95, 6/76, 5/104, and 4/55/1) came over the first eight games of the season. In his other 12 games, Jimmy posted nine empty games (2/8, 1/21, 1/14, 1/13, 2/34, 2/13, 3/32, 3/34, and 3/21). Graham caught only 23 passes for 211 yards on 35 targets over the last eight games of the season. His lengthy resume of success and Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball does give him a glimmer of hope, but I wouldn’t draft him as a TE1. I’ll set the bar at 55+ catches for 600+ yards and a chance at five TEs if you want to take a dance with him at age 33.
In his first two seasons at Kansas, Sternberger only caught one pass for five yards. He sat out 2017 after transferring to Texas A&M. The change in offenses led to a productive junior year (48/832/10) and a job in the NFL. Jace has a pass catching skill set with some risk in the blocking game early in his career. His route running and hands give him upside once he gains experience. Look for him to emerge over the second half of the season while being a year or two away from being viable starting Fantasy TE.
Other Options: Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Pharoah McKever, Evan Baylis
Crosby was at his best from 2013 to 2016 when he made 85.9 percent of his 128 field goal tries. Over this span, he made 14 of his 21 kicks from 50 yards or longer. Over the last two seasons, Mason reverted to his early career form. He made only 45 of his 56 field goals (80.4 percent) with six of ten chances crossing the goal post from 50 yards or longer. Over the last four seasons, Crosby missed seven of his 154 extra point opportunities. Green Bay tends to score TDs in the red zone leading to Mason finishing with less than impactful field goal tries. Possible top 12 kicker, but he’ll kick extra points in many games.
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